**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models point to a Tokyo high of 23–24°C on September 18 under persistent overcast skies, moderate northerly winds of 10–15 mph, and low precipitation chances (10–20%).** These conditions suppress daytime heating compared to seasonal norms near 26°C, with recent northerly flow and cloud cover from upstream systems keeping surface temperatures in check. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, supporting the market’s concentration on 23–25°C outcomes (over 85% combined implied probability) while assigning low odds to warmer or cooler extremes. Updated model runs and JMA briefings through the evening of the 17th will provide the final inputs before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月18日東京氣溫最高？
9月18日東京氣溫最高？
24°C 41%
23°C 25%
25°C 19%
26°C 6%
最新
$15,385 交易量
最新
$15,385 交易量
2026-09-18
19°C或以下
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
25%
24°C
41%
25°C
19%
26°C
6%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C或以上
<1%
24°C 41%
23°C 25%
25°C 19%
26°C 6%
最新
$15,385 交易量
最新
$15,385 交易量
2026-09-18
19°C或以下
$1,379 交易量
<1%
20°C
$392 交易量
<1%
21°C
$635 交易量
2%
22°C
$506 交易量
5%
23°C
$3,095 交易量
25%
24°C
$1,718 交易量
41%
25°C
$2,888 交易量
19%
26°C
$1,812 交易量
6%
27°C
$893 交易量
2%
28°C
$678 交易量
<1%
29°C或以上
$1,388 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models point to a Tokyo high of 23–24°C on September 18 under persistent overcast skies, moderate northerly winds of 10–15 mph, and low precipitation chances (10–20%).** These conditions suppress daytime heating compared to seasonal norms near 26°C, with recent northerly flow and cloud cover from upstream systems keeping surface temperatures in check. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, supporting the market’s concentration on 23–25°C outcomes (over 85% combined implied probability) while assigning low odds to warmer or cooler extremes. Updated model runs and JMA briefings through the evening of the 17th will provide the final inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$15,385結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models point to a Tokyo high of 23–24°C on September 18 under persistent overcast skies, moderate northerly winds of 10–15 mph, and low precipitation chances (10–20%).** These conditions suppress daytime heating compared to seasonal norms near 26°C, with recent northerly flow and cloud cover from upstream systems keeping surface temperatures in check. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, supporting the market’s concentration on 23–25°C outcomes (over 85% combined implied probability) while assigning low odds to warmer or cooler extremes. Updated model runs and JMA briefings through the evening of the 17th will provide the final inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$15,385結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models point to a Tokyo high of 23–24°C on September 18 under persistent overcast skies, moderate northerly winds of 10–15 mph, and low precipitation chances (10–20%).** These conditions suppress daytime heating compared to seasonal norms near 26°C, with recent northerly flow and cloud cover from upstream systems keeping surface temperatures in check. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, supporting the market’s concentration on 23–25°C outcomes (over 85% combined implied probability) while assigning low odds to warmer or cooler extremes. Updated model runs and JMA briefings through the evening of the 17th will provide the final inputs before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions