Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a stationary front and persistent cloud cover will moderate peak temperatures in Tokyo on August 30, with consensus highs centering on 27–28 °C amid light rain or drizzle and northerly flow. These conditions contrast with the clearer, hotter pattern earlier in the week, limiting surface heating and convective mixing. Ensemble spreads in boundary-layer moisture and frontal timing create genuine uncertainty around the precise daily maximum, which explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 27 °C and 28 °C rather than converging on a single outcome. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the range ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月30日東京氣溫最高？
8月30日東京氣溫最高？
27°C 36%
28°C 25%
26°C 19%
29°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
19%
27°C
36%
28°C
25%
29°C
10%
30°C
5%
31°C
3%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 36%
28°C 25%
26°C 19%
29°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
23°C or below
$100 交易量
1%
24°C
$9 交易量
1%
25°C
$45 交易量
6%
26°C
$10 交易量
19%
27°C
$65 交易量
36%
28°C
$94 交易量
25%
29°C
$12 交易量
10%
30°C
$108 交易量
5%
31°C
$10 交易量
3%
32°C
$80 交易量
3%
33°C or higher
$254 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a stationary front and persistent cloud cover will moderate peak temperatures in Tokyo on August 30, with consensus highs centering on 27–28 °C amid light rain or drizzle and northerly flow. These conditions contrast with the clearer, hotter pattern earlier in the week, limiting surface heating and convective mixing. Ensemble spreads in boundary-layer moisture and frontal timing create genuine uncertainty around the precise daily maximum, which explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 27 °C and 28 °C rather than converging on a single outcome. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$787結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a stationary front and persistent cloud cover will moderate peak temperatures in Tokyo on August 30, with consensus highs centering on 27–28 °C amid light rain or drizzle and northerly flow. These conditions contrast with the clearer, hotter pattern earlier in the week, limiting surface heating and convective mixing. Ensemble spreads in boundary-layer moisture and frontal timing create genuine uncertainty around the precise daily maximum, which explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 27 °C and 28 °C rather than converging on a single outcome. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$787結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a stationary front and persistent cloud cover will moderate peak temperatures in Tokyo on August 30, with consensus highs centering on 27–28 °C amid light rain or drizzle and northerly flow. These conditions contrast with the clearer, hotter pattern earlier in the week, limiting surface heating and convective mixing. Ensemble spreads in boundary-layer moisture and frontal timing create genuine uncertainty around the precise daily maximum, which explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 27 °C and 28 °C rather than converging on a single outcome. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the range ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions