No major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater remains unlikely through the end of 2026, with trader consensus at 90% for "No" reflecting sustained absence of credible impactors on Sentry and ESA risk lists. Continuous NASA and ESA orbital monitoring, including recent detections like the sub-2-meter 2026 RW1 that burned up harmlessly over the Indian Ocean, shows only small objects on safe trajectories. Upcoming LSST operations will further refine near-Earth asteroid catalogs, but no objects large enough for a significant airburst are projected to intersect Earth in the remaining months. Historical rates of such events are low, and refined trajectories have consistently removed earlier hypothetical risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
10% 機率
$206,915 交易量
$206,915 交易量
2027-02-28
是
10% 機率
$206,915 交易量
$206,915 交易量
2027-02-28
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater remains unlikely through the end of 2026, with trader consensus at 90% for "No" reflecting sustained absence of credible impactors on Sentry and ESA risk lists. Continuous NASA and ESA orbital monitoring, including recent detections like the sub-2-meter 2026 RW1 that burned up harmlessly over the Indian Ocean, shows only small objects on safe trajectories. Upcoming LSST operations will further refine near-Earth asteroid catalogs, but no objects large enough for a significant airburst are projected to intersect Earth in the remaining months. Historical rates of such events are low, and refined trajectories have consistently removed earlier hypothetical risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
交易量
$206,915結束日期
2027-03-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater remains unlikely through the end of 2026, with trader consensus at 90% for "No" reflecting sustained absence of credible impactors on Sentry and ESA risk lists. Continuous NASA and ESA orbital monitoring, including recent detections like the sub-2-meter 2026 RW1 that burned up harmlessly over the Indian Ocean, shows only small objects on safe trajectories. Upcoming LSST operations will further refine near-Earth asteroid catalogs, but no objects large enough for a significant airburst are projected to intersect Earth in the remaining months. Historical rates of such events are low, and refined trajectories have consistently removed earlier hypothetical risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$206,915結束日期
2027-03-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETNo major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater remains unlikely through the end of 2026, with trader consensus at 90% for "No" reflecting sustained absence of credible impactors on Sentry and ESA risk lists. Continuous NASA and ESA orbital monitoring, including recent detections like the sub-2-meter 2026 RW1 that burned up harmlessly over the Indian Ocean, shows only small objects on safe trajectories. Upcoming LSST operations will further refine near-Earth asteroid catalogs, but no objects large enough for a significant airburst are projected to intersect Earth in the remaining months. Historical rates of such events are low, and refined trajectories have consistently removed earlier hypothetical risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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