NASA's continuous monitoring through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry system has identified no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton or greater airburst through the end of 2026, forming the core driver behind the strong "No" consensus. Recent close approaches of house-sized objects, such as 2026 JH2, passed safely at distances far exceeding lunar orbit with zero impact probability. While Q1 2026 saw a notable uptick in smaller fireball events tracked by the American Meteor Society, these meter-scale bodies fall well below the energy threshold and align with normal near-Earth object flux. Undiscovered impactors remain possible in principle, yet expanding survey coverage and the historically low annual rate for such strikes keep the implied odds heavily weighted against occurrence before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$178,703 交易量
$178,703 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$178,703 交易量
$178,703 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's continuous monitoring through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry system has identified no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton or greater airburst through the end of 2026, forming the core driver behind the strong "No" consensus. Recent close approaches of house-sized objects, such as 2026 JH2, passed safely at distances far exceeding lunar orbit with zero impact probability. While Q1 2026 saw a notable uptick in smaller fireball events tracked by the American Meteor Society, these meter-scale bodies fall well below the energy threshold and align with normal near-Earth object flux. Undiscovered impactors remain possible in principle, yet expanding survey coverage and the historically low annual rate for such strikes keep the implied odds heavily weighted against occurrence before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
交易量
$178,703結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's continuous monitoring through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry system has identified no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton or greater airburst through the end of 2026, forming the core driver behind the strong "No" consensus. Recent close approaches of house-sized objects, such as 2026 JH2, passed safely at distances far exceeding lunar orbit with zero impact probability. While Q1 2026 saw a notable uptick in smaller fireball events tracked by the American Meteor Society, these meter-scale bodies fall well below the energy threshold and align with normal near-Earth object flux. Undiscovered impactors remain possible in principle, yet expanding survey coverage and the historically low annual rate for such strikes keep the implied odds heavily weighted against occurrence before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$178,703結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's continuous monitoring through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry system has identified no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton or greater airburst through the end of 2026, forming the core driver behind the strong "No" consensus. Recent close approaches of house-sized objects, such as 2026 JH2, passed safely at distances far exceeding lunar orbit with zero impact probability. While Q1 2026 saw a notable uptick in smaller fireball events tracked by the American Meteor Society, these meter-scale bodies fall well below the energy threshold and align with normal near-Earth object flux. Undiscovered impactors remain possible in principle, yet expanding survey coverage and the historically low annual rate for such strikes keep the implied odds heavily weighted against occurrence before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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