Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring via the Sentry impact assessment system shows no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 10 kt or greater airburst in 2026. Recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2 and various meter-scale bolides, have remained well below threshold with refined orbits confirming safe passages. This absence of detected large impactors drives the 88% market-implied probability for “No,” reflecting trader consensus on the low likelihood of an untracked event in the remaining months. Continued orbital observations through year-end represent the main potential catalyst for any shift, though historical patterns indicate such strikes occur infrequently.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$178,733 交易量
$178,733 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$178,733 交易量
$178,733 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring via the Sentry impact assessment system shows no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 10 kt or greater airburst in 2026. Recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2 and various meter-scale bolides, have remained well below threshold with refined orbits confirming safe passages. This absence of detected large impactors drives the 88% market-implied probability for “No,” reflecting trader consensus on the low likelihood of an untracked event in the remaining months. Continued orbital observations through year-end represent the main potential catalyst for any shift, though historical patterns indicate such strikes occur infrequently.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
交易量
$178,733結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring via the Sentry impact assessment system shows no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 10 kt or greater airburst in 2026. Recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2 and various meter-scale bolides, have remained well below threshold with refined orbits confirming safe passages. This absence of detected large impactors drives the 88% market-implied probability for “No,” reflecting trader consensus on the low likelihood of an untracked event in the remaining months. Continued orbital observations through year-end represent the main potential catalyst for any shift, though historical patterns indicate such strikes occur infrequently.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$178,733結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring via the Sentry impact assessment system shows no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 10 kt or greater airburst in 2026. Recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2 and various meter-scale bolides, have remained well below threshold with refined orbits confirming safe passages. This absence of detected large impactors drives the 88% market-implied probability for “No,” reflecting trader consensus on the low likelihood of an untracked event in the remaining months. Continued orbital observations through year-end represent the main potential catalyst for any shift, though historical patterns indicate such strikes occur infrequently.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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