Traders see a 98.5% chance of no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international surveys has catalogued thousands of potential impactors, with orbital models showing no collision risk for objects large enough to deliver that yield. Ground-based optical telescopes, radar arrays, and space-based infrared sensors provide high-precision tracking that would detect a roughly 50-100 meter body months or years ahead. With most of the year already elapsed without any such event, the market reflects this data-driven consensus. Rare uncertainties remain, including a long-period comet on a previously undetected trajectory or an unforeseen orbital perturbation, though current surveys make these scenarios highly improbable before December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
2% 機率
$117,248 交易量
$117,248 交易量
2026-12-31
是
2% 機率
$117,248 交易量
$117,248 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Traders see a 98.5% chance of no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international surveys has catalogued thousands of potential impactors, with orbital models showing no collision risk for objects large enough to deliver that yield. Ground-based optical telescopes, radar arrays, and space-based infrared sensors provide high-precision tracking that would detect a roughly 50-100 meter body months or years ahead. With most of the year already elapsed without any such event, the market reflects this data-driven consensus. Rare uncertainties remain, including a long-period comet on a previously undetected trajectory or an unforeseen orbital perturbation, though current surveys make these scenarios highly improbable before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$117,248結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Traders see a 98.5% chance of no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international surveys has catalogued thousands of potential impactors, with orbital models showing no collision risk for objects large enough to deliver that yield. Ground-based optical telescopes, radar arrays, and space-based infrared sensors provide high-precision tracking that would detect a roughly 50-100 meter body months or years ahead. With most of the year already elapsed without any such event, the market reflects this data-driven consensus. Rare uncertainties remain, including a long-period comet on a previously undetected trajectory or an unforeseen orbital perturbation, though current surveys make these scenarios highly improbable before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$117,248結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETTraders see a 98.5% chance of no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international surveys has catalogued thousands of potential impactors, with orbital models showing no collision risk for objects large enough to deliver that yield. Ground-based optical telescopes, radar arrays, and space-based infrared sensors provide high-precision tracking that would detect a roughly 50-100 meter body months or years ahead. With most of the year already elapsed without any such event, the market reflects this data-driven consensus. Rare uncertainties remain, including a long-period comet on a previously undetected trajectory or an unforeseen orbital perturbation, though current surveys make these scenarios highly improbable before December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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