**Paramount Skydance holds an 80.5% implied probability after securing a definitive $110.9 billion all-cash agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery in February 2026, followed by overwhelming shareholder approval in April.** The U.S. Department of Justice recently closed its antitrust review, removing a major regulatory hurdle and reinforcing trader consensus around successful closing. Earlier bidding rounds saw Netflix initially favored for studios and streaming assets before Paramount’s revised full-company tender prevailed, prompting Netflix to withdraw. Comcast’s partial-asset interest drew limited traction. The 13% probability assigned to no closing by June 30, 2027, accounts for remaining state-level reviews and standard deal timelines, while Netflix and Comcast options reflect diminished competitive positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Paramount offers remedies to address EU competition concerns, delays deal approval to July 22
Paramount proposed remedies to EU regulators to address competition concerns, causing a delay in deal approval from July 7 to July 22, reflecting ongoing regulatory scrutiny and slight market uncertainty.
Paramount submits concessions to European Commission for Warner Bros. merger review
Paramount rises to 86%1%
Paramount formally offered concessions to the European Commission as part of the ongoing regulatory review of its $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. This step is critical to securing EU approval and advancing the merger toward completion.
UK government signals likely intervention in Paramount's Warner Bros. Discovery takeover
Paramount dips to 81%2%
The UK Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy announced she is minded to intervene in the $110 billion Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger on public interest grounds, citing concerns about media plurality. This potential intervention introduces regulatory uncertainty and could delay the deal's completion in the UK market.
European Union expected to approve Paramount-Warner Bros. deal by early July
Paramount rises to 83%2%
EU regulators indicated they would approve the Paramount-WBD deal by July 7, 2026, signaling smooth regulatory progress in Europe and supporting market optimism for a timely closing.
U.S. Department of Justice clears Paramount Skydance’s $110 billion Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount rises to 85%2%
The DOJ approved the acquisition without objections, removing a major regulatory hurdle and boosting Paramount's market confidence ahead of final closing.
Paramount faces antitrust lawsuit challenging Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount dips to 82%3%
Paramount Skydance was served with an antitrust lawsuit alleging the acquisition would reduce competition and harm consumers, introducing legal risks and potential delays to the merger process.
Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery expected to close in Q3 2026
Paramount jumps to 81%5%
Following Netflix’s withdrawal and regulatory approvals, Paramount Skydance’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery is on track to close in the third quarter of 2026, effectively ending the bidding war and confirming Paramount as the acquirer.
U.S. Department of Justice and FCC clear Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 82%1%
The U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Communications Commission approved Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, removing the final regulatory obstacles and paving the way for the deal to close in Q3 2026. This regulatory clearance solidified Paramount's position as the acquirer.
Regulators clear Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Communications Commission approved Paramount's acquisition, removing final regulatory obstacles for the $110 billion merger.
U.S. Department of Justice approves Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The U.S. Department of Justice granted approval for Paramount Skydance's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, allowing the $110 billion deal to proceed. This regulatory clearance was a critical step toward finalizing the acquisition and confirmed Paramount as the acquirer.
U.S. Department of Justice clears Paramount’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The DOJ approved Paramount Skydance’s acquisition without requiring remedies, clearing a major regulatory hurdle and paving the way for deal closure.
Comcast withdraws bid for Warner Bros. Discovery after Paramount win
Comcast announced it had dropped its bid after Paramount’s deal cleared regulatory hurdles, pushing the Comcast probability down to virtually zero.
Paramount’s $110 billion Warner Bros. acquisition cleared by DOJ
Paramount jumps to 87%6%
The U.S. Department of Justice approved Paramount’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros., marking a major milestone despite ongoing legal challenges from some states, boosting market confidence in Paramount’s closing chances.
Warner Bros. Discovery shares trade below deal price after DOJ approval amid remaining risks
Despite DOJ approval, WBD shares traded below the $31 deal price reflecting investor caution about remaining state-level legal challenges and international regulatory reviews, indicating some execution risk remains.
Department of Justice Approves Paramount-WBD Merger After Eight-Month Review
Paramount jumps to 83%6%
The DOJ's Antitrust Division cleared the $111 billion transaction, concluding it does not pose a threat to competition in streaming, linear TV, or theatrical markets.
U.S. Department of Justice approves Paramount-Warner Bros. merger without conditions
The DOJ cleared Paramount's $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, signaling regulatory approval and paving the way for the deal's completion, solidifying Paramount's control over the studios and streaming assets.
US Department of Justice approves Paramount-Warner Bros. merger without conditions
Paramount rises to 86%3%
The DOJ’s Antitrust Division approved Paramount Skydance’s $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery after an extensive eight-month review, concluding the deal would not harm competition. This cleared a major regulatory hurdle for the merger to close.
DOJ antitrust division approves Paramount‑Warner Bros. Discovery merger
The U.S. Department of Justice announced antitrust approval of the Paramount‑Warner Bros. Discovery merger, removing the final regulatory hurdle and cementing Paramount’s lead in the market.
U.S. Justice Department approves Paramount’s $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros.
Paramount jumps to 84%10%
The DOJ's Antitrust Division cleared Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, removing a major regulatory hurdle and boosting market confidence in the deal's completion.
DOJ clears Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 85%8%
The DOJ announced it would not challenge the Paramount‑Warner Bros. deal, clearing the biggest antitrust obstacle. The news lifted Paramount’s probability further and gave a modest bump to the “None” outcome as the window for delays narrowed.
US Department of Justice signals likely approval of Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
US antitrust regulators indicated a positive stance toward approving Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros., reducing regulatory uncertainty and supporting the completion of the deal.
US Department of Justice clears Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The US DOJ concluded its antitrust investigation, determining that Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery is unlikely to harm competition, removing a major regulatory hurdle and increasing the likelihood of deal closure.
US Justice Department approves Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The US Department of Justice approved the $111 billion merger of Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery, clearing a major regulatory hurdle and paving the way for the deal's expected closing in Q3 2026.
Paramount's acquisition probability peaks above 90% amid Netflix and Comcast exit
Paramount jumps to 91%6%
By mid-June 2026, market prices showed Paramount's acquisition probability peaking at 91%, while Netflix and Comcast probabilities dropped to zero. This reflected Paramount's dominant position in the bidding process and the market's expectation that Paramount will close the acquisition by the June 30, 2027 deadline.
California and other states prepare lawsuit to block Paramount-Warner Bros. deal
California Attorney General and other states announced plans to sue to block Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros., introducing legal uncertainty and potential delays to the closing process.
Paramount Files Motion to Dismiss Subscriber Antitrust Lawsuit
Paramount drops to 74%10%
Paramount asked a federal court to toss the antitrust lawsuit, calling it a clumsy attempt to politicize corporate transactions.
Paramount seeks EU approval for Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny
Paramount rises to 86%3%
Paramount formally sought European Union approval for the acquisition, facing ongoing regulatory scrutiny but progressing toward closing the deal despite challenges.
EU extends antitrust review of Paramount’s bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount drops to 71%13%
The EU signaled it would extend its review of the Paramount‑Warner transaction, causing the “Paramount” price to drop again to the low‑70s and the “None” price to edge upward.
European Union and Austrian authorities expected to approve Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery deal
The European Union and Austrian Federal Competition Authority indicated expected approval of the Paramount acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, signaling regulatory clearance in key jurisdictions and advancing the deal toward completion.
European Union expected to approve Paramount-Warner Bros. deal by July 7, 2026
Paramount rises to 83%4%
The EU's anticipated approval of the Paramount acquisition deal reduced regulatory uncertainty, supporting the market's confidence in Paramount closing the acquisition within 2026.
Netflix reports solid Q4 but stock falls amid subscriber growth concerns
Netflix dips to 0%1%
Netflix reported strong financial results but slowing subscriber growth raised concerns, impacting its stock negatively. This added pressure on Netflix's ability to close the Warner Bros. acquisition, reflected in its market price decline to near zero.
Paramount's hostile bid remains active as shareholder tender deadline approaches
Paramount continued to extend its tender offer and push for shareholder support, maintaining market confidence in its hostile bid despite Warner Bros. Discovery's board support for Netflix.
U.S. Department of Justice and FCC clear Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 82%2%
Regulatory approval from the DOJ and FCC removed the final major obstacles for Paramount's acquisition, solidifying the deal's likelihood and pushing market prices to near certainty for Paramount's win.
Warner Bros. board reaffirms Netflix offer superior, urges shareholders to reject Paramount
Netflix dips to 0%2%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board again recommended shareholders reject Paramount's hostile bid, citing risks and debt concerns, and endorsed Netflix's offer as providing superior value and certainty, reinforcing Netflix's favored status in the acquisition race.
Paramount hit with antitrust lawsuit over Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
An antitrust lawsuit was filed against Paramount alleging the acquisition would reduce competition and harm consumers, introducing regulatory risk to the merger's completion and impacting market sentiment.
Paramount Hit With Antitrust Lawsuit by Subscribers Seeking to Block WBD Merger
None by June 30, 2027 dips to 18%3%
A group of streaming subscribers filed a class-action antitrust lawsuit in California federal court, arguing the merger would reduce competition and raise prices.
EU completes phase‑1 review of Paramount‑Warner Bros. deal
None by June 30, 2027 rises to 13%1%
The European Commission completed its phase‑1 antitrust review of the Paramount‑WBD deal, signalling that EU clearance was on track. The news nudged the “None” probability upward as investors priced in possible regulatory delays.
European antitrust regulators complete phase 1 review of Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery deal
Paramount jumps to 84%10%
The European antitrust review phase 1 was completed smoothly, suggesting regulatory approval is progressing well, which supports the expected closing timeline of the Paramount acquisition.
Warner Bros. CinemaCon show highlights upcoming films amid acquisition uncertainty
Paramount jumps to 80%10%
Warner Bros. showcased major upcoming films at CinemaCon, reflecting ongoing business as usual despite the pending acquisition battle. Industry concerns about consolidation effects on production and theaters were noted, influencing market sentiment about the acquisition's future.
UK CMA to open investigation into Paramount‑Warner Bros. Discovery merger
Paramount plunges to 71%15%
The CMA announced it would launch an antitrust investigation into the Paramount‑Warner deal, temporarily dampening the “Paramount” price (which fell from 86 % to 71 %).
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve merger with Paramount Skydance
Shareholders overwhelmingly approved the merger with Paramount Skydance, favoring its bid over Netflix's, marking a decisive step toward closing the acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery Shareholders Overwhelmingly Approve Paramount Skydance Merger
Paramount rises to 72%2%
WBD stockholders voted to approve the $111 billion transaction with Paramount Skydance, solidifying Paramount's position as the winning acquirer over Netflix.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve Paramount acquisition deal
Shareholders voted in favor of Paramount's $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, a key step toward closing the deal and consolidating control under Paramount Skydance.
Comcast files letter of intent for Warner Bros. Discovery streaming assets
Comcast rises to 1%1%
Comcast quietly filed a letter of intent to explore a possible bid for Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming assets; the market’s “Comcast” probability rose briefly from 0 % to 1 % before returning to zero.
Regulatory uncertainty pushes “None” probability higher
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 29%11%
A market‑price spike for the “None” outcome followed reports of heightened scrutiny in the United Kingdom and pending state‑level challenges, pushing investors to assign more probability to a delayed or failed closing.
Market shifts toward longer acquisition timeline amid UK regulatory scrutiny
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 29%11%
The prediction market saw a significant increase in the probability that no acquisition would close before July 2027, reflecting concerns about regulatory delays in the UK and the complexity of the approval process, which could extend the deal timeline.
Market shifts toward delayed Warner Bros. acquisition amid UK regulatory scrutiny
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 29%11%
The prediction market saw a significant increase in the probability that no acquisition would close before July 2027, reflecting concerns about regulatory delays in the UK and Europe, causing a temporary dip in Paramount's acquisition odds.
Larry Ellison guarantees $40.4B equity financing for Paramount's Warner bid
Paramount rises to 77%3%
Larry Ellison, Oracle founder and father of Paramount CEO David Ellison, personally guaranteed $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount's hostile bid, bolstering Paramount's financial backing and intensifying the takeover battle.
Paramount responds to industry opposition over Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount issued a statement defending its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery amid an open letter from thousands of industry professionals opposing the merger, highlighting concerns about competition and creative impact. This event reflected growing public and regulatory scrutiny.
Paramount responds to open letter opposing Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount issued a statement defending the acquisition, emphasizing the benefits for creators and competition, amid opposition from over 2,000 industry professionals.
Netflix deal eclipsed as Paramount gains shareholder approval
Netflix dips to 1%2%
With Paramount’s shareholder vote and DOJ approval, the previously dominant Netflix deal became irrelevant, collapsing the “Netflix” probability to 1 % and eventually 0 % by late June.
Shareholders approve Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger
Paramount jumps to 78%5%
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approved the merger with Paramount, reinforcing market confidence in Paramount's acquisition and reducing the likelihood of no acquisition or Netflix winning.
Warner Bros. Discovery reiterates support for Netflix deal amid ongoing Paramount bid
Warner Bros. Discovery's leadership reaffirmed their commitment to the Netflix acquisition, emphasizing the superior value and certainty of the Netflix deal despite Paramount's ongoing hostile bid and proxy fight.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. offer to all-cash deal to counter Paramount
Netflix dips to 1%1%
Netflix revised its $72 billion offer for Warner Bros. Discovery to an all-cash transaction, simplifying the deal structure to provide more certainty to shareholders and speed up the shareholder vote, strengthening its competitive position against Paramount's hostile bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders vote on Netflix merger amid ongoing Paramount talks
Netflix dips to 74%1%
WBD held a special shareholder meeting to vote on the Netflix merger while simultaneously initiating discussions with Paramount for their best and final offer, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and competition between the two bidders.
Paramount completes $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount finalized the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery for $31 per share, reshaping the media landscape. The deal ended the months-long bidding war and confirmed Paramount as the acquirer of Warner Bros. studios and streaming businesses.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve Paramount's $111 billion acquisition
Paramount jumps to 85%6%
Shareholders of Warner Bros. Discovery approved the Paramount Skydance acquisition, solidifying Paramount's position as the acquirer. This shareholder approval was a key step toward closing the deal, increasing market confidence in Paramount's acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery schedules shareholder vote on Netflix merger and Paramount offer
WBD set a special shareholder meeting to vote on the Netflix merger and to consider Paramount's best and final offer, increasing market uncertainty but ultimately favoring Paramount as Netflix's deal was less favored.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve Netflix merger
Netflix dips to 0%2%
Shareholders voted on the Netflix merger; the result was a narrow approval, causing the “Netflix” probability to fall to 0 % and the “Paramount” price to stabilize near 78 %.
Netflix withdraws from Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition race
Paramount jumps to 88%14%
Netflix announced it would no longer pursue the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing financial unattractiveness. This cleared the path for Paramount to finalize the acquisition, reflected in Paramount's price surge to 88%.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9B bid challenging Netflix's $72B Warner Bros. deal
Paramount drops to 68%11%
Paramount publicly launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $77.9 billion in cash for the entire company, including cable assets Netflix does not want, escalating the bidding war and causing market volatility.
Paramount advances hostile takeover with plans to nominate own Warner Bros. board
Paramount dips to 74%2%
Paramount announced it would nominate its own slate of directors for Warner Bros. Discovery before the next shareholder meeting and filed a lawsuit to compel disclosure of Warner's valuation of bids, intensifying the hostile takeover attempt.
Warner board reaffirms support for Netflix merger
None by June 30, 2027 rises to 15%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board reiterated its recommendation that shareholders approve the Netflix acquisition, effectively diminishing the perceived viability of Paramount’s bid and causing the ‘None by June 30 2027’ outcome to dip further.
Warner Bros. rejects Paramount takeover again, backs Netflix deal
Paramount rises to 14%4%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board again rejected Paramount's hostile takeover bid, reaffirming support for Netflix's offer. This reinforced market confidence in Netflix's deal but Paramount's bid remained active, keeping the contest alive.
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery Agree to Blockbuster $110 Billion Merger
Paramount surges to 77%24%
Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery officially signed a definitive merger agreement valued at $110 billion, with Paramount paying $31 per share in cash.
Warner Bros rejects Paramount takeover again, backs Netflix bid
Netflix dips to 2%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected Paramount's hostile takeover offer, citing insufficient value and risks, and urged shareholders to support Netflix's $72 billion deal for the studios and streaming business, reinforcing Netflix's position in the market.
Paramount CEO details plans post-Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount dips to 78%3%
Paramount CEO David Ellison announced plans to keep Paramount and Warner Bros. as separate studios with increased film output, signaling confidence in closing the acquisition and operational plans, supporting Paramount's strong market position.
Paramount confirmed as winning bidder after Netflix bows out of Warner Bros. acquisition race
Paramount rises to 78%2%
Netflix decided not to match Paramount's superior offer, effectively ending its pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery. This solidified Paramount's position as the likely acquirer, reflected in a rise in its market price.
Paramount wins boardroom battle for Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount jumps to 83%5%
Paramount Skydance secured control of Warner Bros. Discovery after the board determined its topping bid was superior, solidifying Paramount as the acquirer in the market.
Paramount Skydance secures Department of Justice approval for Warner Bros. acquisition
The U.S. Department of Justice cleared Paramount Skydance’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, finding no antitrust violations and stating the deal would likely strengthen competition. This regulatory approval was a major step toward closing the acquisition.
Paramount extends $77.9B hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount dips to 76%3%
Paramount extended its tender offer deadline and doubled down on a proxy fight to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share in cash for the entire company, challenging Netflix's $72 billion deal for just the studios and streaming business. This escalated the bidding war and increased market uncertainty.
Netflix declines to improve its Warner Bros. Discovery proposal
Netflix dips to 1%3%
Netflix publicly confirmed it would not renew its bid after Paramount’s superior offer, causing the Netflix probability to collapse to near‑zero (1 %).
Netflix declines to match Paramount's final $31/share offer, ending pursuit
Paramount dips to 1%1%
Netflix chose not to increase its bid beyond Paramount's $31/share all-cash offer, effectively conceding the acquisition to Paramount and causing Netflix's market price to collapse.
Paramount announces $110 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 87%12%
Paramount Skydance announced a $110 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, paying $31 per share in cash, after Netflix declined to match the offer, marking the conclusion of the bidding war and reshaping the media industry.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. offer to all-cash transaction to counter Paramount
Netflix plunges to 2%48%
Netflix converted its original cash-and-stock offer to an all-cash deal valued at $72 billion to simplify the transaction and increase certainty for shareholders, aiming to counter Paramount's hostile bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance sign $110 billion merger agreement
Paramount surges to 78%47%
After Netflix declined to raise its offer, Warner Bros. Discovery agreed to a $110 billion merger deal with Paramount Skydance, marking a decisive shift in the acquisition race and causing Paramount's market price to surge.
Netflix's bid probability collapses amid Paramount's rising bid and regulatory concerns
Netflix plunges to 2%44%
By late February 2026, Netflix's market probability sharply declined from around 46% to near 2%, reflecting growing doubts about Netflix's ability to finalize the acquisition amid Paramount's aggressive counterbids and regulatory scrutiny. This shift indicated the market's reassessment favoring Paramount.
Netflix revises $72B Warner Bros. offer to all-cash deal
Netflix plunges to 2%46%
Netflix converted its original cash-and-stock offer into an all-cash transaction to simplify the deal and make it more attractive to Warner Bros. shareholders, aiming to counter Paramount's hostile bid. This move initially boosted Netflix's price but was insufficient to regain lost ground.
Paramount Skydance submits superior $110 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros.
Paramount surges to 88%57%
Paramount Skydance announced a topping all-cash bid of $31 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $110 billion, surpassing Netflix's offer. This led Warner Bros. Discovery to terminate its agreement with Netflix and accept Paramount's proposal, causing a major shift in market expectations.
Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance sign definitive merger agreement
Paramount jumps to 85%14%
Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance entered into a definitive agreement for Paramount to acquire the entire company for $31 per share, marking a major milestone in the acquisition process and signaling Paramount's lead in the deal.
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery announce $110 billion merger agreement
Paramount surges to 87%52%
Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery entered into a definitive merger agreement for Paramount to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery in a $110 billion deal, ending the bidding war after Netflix withdrew. This caused a sharp rise in Paramount's market price and collapse in Netflix's and Comcast's prices.
Paramount signs definitive agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 85%51%
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery signed a definitive agreement to acquire the entire company, including studios and streaming assets. The agreement cemented Paramount as the likely acquirer and was reflected in the large jump in Paramount odds that day.
Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery announce definitive merger agreement
Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery announced a definitive merger agreement for Paramount to acquire WBD for approximately $111 billion in an all-cash transaction. The deal was unanimously approved by both companies' boards and set to close in Q3 2026, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals.
Paramount Skydance signs $110 bn deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 84%10%
Paramount Skydance signed a definitive acquisition agreement to buy Warner Bros. Discovery for $31 per share (≈$110 bn). The deal’s signing caused the Paramount outcome to surge to its highest levels (84‑88 %) and effectively eliminated the Netflix probability.
DOJ clears Paramount Skydance’s $110 bn Warner Bros. acquisition
The DOJ announced it would not block the Paramount‑Warner Bros. deal, removing a major regulatory obstacle and reinforcing market confidence in the Paramount outcome, keeping its price near the 84‑% peak.
Paramount announces $31 per share offer, winning board approval over Netflix
Paramount surges to 80%30%
Paramount increased its bid to $31 per share in cash, valued at approximately $110 billion, which Warner Bros. Discovery's board deemed superior to Netflix's offer, reopening negotiations and shifting market probabilities heavily in Paramount's favor.
Netflix drops Warner Bros. deal after White House visit
Netflix plunges to 0%45%
A CapWolf article reported that Netflix walked away from its Warner Bros. deal after a White House visit, confirming the deal’s collapse. The market’s “Netflix” probability fell to 1 % shortly thereafter and hit 0 % by late April.
Warner Bros. Discovery signs merger agreement with Paramount Skydance
Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance signed a definitive agreement for Paramount to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $110.9 billion, with the deal expected to close in Q3 2026 pending regulatory and shareholder approvals. This formalized Paramount as the acquirer, solidifying market expectations.
Paramount Skydance confirms $110 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 81%51%
Paramount Skydance confirmed its agreement to acquire all of Warner Bros. Discovery for $110 billion, marking the likely conclusion of the bidding war and setting the stage for regulatory approval and closing.
Warner Bros. Discovery board accepts Paramount’s $31 per share offer, ending Netflix deal
Paramount surges to 81%55%
After negotiations and Paramount raising its bid to $31 per share, Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount’s proposal was superior to Netflix’s and signed a definitive agreement, effectively ending Netflix’s acquisition attempt.
Warner Bros. Discovery board concludes Paramount's $31/share offer is superior; Netflix walks away
Paramount surges to 80%27%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount's revised all-cash offer of $31 per share was superior to Netflix's deal. Netflix declined to match the offer and exited the bidding, paying a $2.8 billion termination fee.
Warner Bros. Discovery board unanimously selects Paramount's $31 per share offer over Netflix's deal
After reviewing competing bids, Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount's $31 per share all-cash offer was superior and signed a definitive agreement with Paramount.
Paramount Skydance wins Warner Bros. acquisition bid as Netflix declines to improve offer
Paramount surges to 85%58%
Paramount Skydance's $31 per share offer was accepted after Netflix chose not to increase its bid, effectively ending the bidding war and positioning Paramount as the acquirer.
Warner Bros. Discovery ends merger talks with Paramount, shares dip
Warner Bros. Discovery halted merger talks with Paramount, signaling the end of the potential merger. This reduced uncertainty and shifted market confidence back towards Netflix, though Paramount remained a contender.
Netflix price collapses after market doubts on deal completion
Netflix plunges to 1%46%
Following reports that regulatory hurdles and the pending spin‑off of Warner’s cable assets could delay the Netflix acquisition, investor confidence eroded sharply, driving Netflix’s market price down to near zero.
Warner Bros. Discovery signs definitive agreement to be acquired by Paramount
Paramount surges to 87%63%
After reopening negotiations, Warner Bros. Discovery determined Paramount’s revised proposal of $31 per share was superior to Netflix’s offer, leading to a signed definitive agreement for acquisition expected to close in Q3 2026.
Netflix Pulls Out of Warner Bros. Discovery Bidding Race
Netflix plunges to 4%36%
Netflix announced it would not match Paramount's higher valuation, abandoning its acquisition plans and clearing the path for Paramount to secure the deal.
Netflix withdraws its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix plunges to 0%45%
Netflix announced it would not match Paramount’s raised offer and withdrew its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, removing the rival bid, caused Netflix‑related market odds to plummet and Paramount‑related odds to spike as investors saw Paramount becoming the clear front‑runner.
Netflix declines to match Paramount's $111 billion bid, exiting Warner Bros. acquisition race
Paramount surges to 79%56%
Netflix announced it would not raise its offer to match Paramount's $111 billion all-cash bid, effectively ending its pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery. This cleared the path for Paramount to become the likely acquirer, causing Netflix's market probability to drop to zero and Paramount's to surge.
Netflix withdraws from Warner Bros. Discovery bidding war, ceding victory to Paramount
Netflix announced it would not match Paramount's higher $111 billion bid, effectively ending its pursuit and leaving Paramount as the likely acquirer of Warner Bros. Discovery after regulatory approval.
Warner Bros. Discovery considers Paramount's bid superior, Netflix declines to increase offer
Paramount surges to 81%50%
Warner Bros. Discovery confirmed Paramount's updated bid was superior, triggering a period for Netflix to improve its offer. Netflix declined, effectively exiting the bidding war, which shifted market confidence strongly toward Paramount.
Netflix CEO visits White House amid antitrust concerns over Warner Bros. deal
Netflix plunges to 1%45%
Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos visited Washington to address antitrust concerns regarding the Warner Bros. acquisition, attempting to secure regulatory approval amid growing scrutiny and a renewed bidding war with Paramount.
Netflix exits bidding war, declines to raise offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix announced it would not increase its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, effectively exiting the bidding war. This cleared the way for Paramount to become the leading bidder, shifting market expectations towards a Paramount acquisition.
Netflix withdraws bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, clearing way for Paramount
Paramount dips to 0%1%
Netflix formally withdrew from its planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery after the company's board deemed Paramount Skydance's higher all-cash offer superior. Netflix cited financial discipline and the deal no longer being financially attractive at the higher price, effectively ending the bidding war.
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery reach agreement; Netflix declines to improve offer
Paramount surges to 81%51%
After negotiations, Warner Bros. Discovery determined Paramount’s revised proposal to acquire all outstanding shares for $31 per share was superior to Netflix’s deal. Netflix declined to improve its offer, effectively ceding the acquisition to Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery board determines Paramount's revised proposal superior, Netflix declines to improve offer
Paramount surges to 82%54%
After renewed negotiations, Warner Bros. Discovery's board found Paramount's updated offer superior, triggering a match period during which Netflix declined to raise its bid, effectively ending Netflix's pursuit and boosting Paramount's market price sharply.
Warner Bros. Discovery board approves Paramount’s $31 per share acquisition offer
Paramount surges to 85%55%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount's $31 per share all-cash offer was superior to Netflix's deal, leading Netflix to decline to match the bid and exit the acquisition race. This decision significantly increased Paramount's market probability and ended Netflix's chances.
Warner Bros. Discovery board declares Paramount's revised $110 billion offer superior
Paramount surges to 85%48%
After Netflix declined to raise its bid, WBD's board determined Paramount's $110 billion offer was a superior proposal, shifting market expectations strongly in favor of Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery board deems Paramount’s bid superior, Netflix withdraws
Paramount surges to 84%42%
WBD’s board officially declared Paramount’s revised $31 per share all-cash offer superior to Netflix’s $27.75 per share deal, triggering Netflix’s withdrawal from the bidding war and clearing the path for Paramount to acquire WBD.
Netflix declines to raise offer, effectively exiting bidding war with Paramount
Netflix announced it would not increase its bid to match Paramount's higher offer, effectively ending its pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery and clearing the way for Paramount to proceed, which shifted market probabilities strongly toward Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery deems Paramount’s revised $31/share offer superior, Netflix declines to match
Paramount surges to 81%51%
Warner Bros. Discovery confirmed Paramount’s updated $31 per share all-cash offer was superior to Netflix’s, triggering a period for Netflix to improve its bid. Netflix declined to increase its offer, effectively ending its pursuit and clearing the way for Paramount’s acquisition.
Netflix declines to improve offer, effectively exiting bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix announced it would not raise its offer beyond $27.75 per share, effectively conceding the bidding war to Paramount, which had offered $31 per share.
Netflix declines to match Paramount's higher bid and exits Warner Bros. Discovery deal
Paramount surges to 86%85%
Netflix chose not to increase its bid to match Paramount's $31 per share offer, citing financial unattractiveness, effectively ending its pursuit and clearing the way for Paramount's acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery reviews revised Paramount Skydance acquisition proposal
Paramount jumps to 36%5%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board reviewed a revised acquisition offer from Paramount Skydance, indicating ongoing negotiations and competition with Netflix's existing deal, impacting market probabilities.
Paramount submits revised acquisition proposal for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount Skydance submitted an updated bid to Warner Bros. Discovery addressing previous board concerns, attempting to re-engage leadership and compete with Netflix's offer in the ongoing acquisition battle.
Warner Bros. Discovery opens talks with Paramount amid Netflix merger support
Warner Bros. Discovery began a limited discussion period with Paramount to consider its higher offer, while continuing to support the Netflix merger. This created market volatility and uncertainty about the deal's outcome.
Paramount extends tender offer deadline for Warner Bros. shares
Paramount surges to 85%49%
Paramount extended the deadline for its tender offer to acquire Warner Bros. shares, signaling persistence in its hostile bid and causing a sharp rise in Paramount's market price as investors anticipated increased chances of success.
Netflix declines to raise offer, effectively exiting bidding war with Paramount
Paramount dips to 1%2%
Netflix announced it would not increase its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, effectively conceding the bidding war to Paramount Skydance, which had offered a higher all-cash price. This marked a turning point favoring Paramount's acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery reopens acquisition talks with Paramount amid lawsuit
WBD reopened negotiations with Paramount to consider its best and final offer after Paramount sued WBD for refusing to engage, though WBD continued to favor Netflix’s deal.
Warner Bros. Discovery reopens acquisition talks with Paramount after lawsuit
Paramount surges to 85%43%
Following Paramount's lawsuit, WBD reopened talks with Paramount to consider its best and final offer, signaling a shift in negotiations and causing Paramount's market price to rise sharply.
Warner Bros. Discovery reopens talks with Paramount after Netflix grants waiver
Paramount surges to 53%22%
Warner Bros. Discovery received a limited waiver from Netflix to engage in discussions with Paramount Skydance, allowing Paramount to submit a best and final offer, signaling a potential shift in the acquisition race.
Warner Bros. Discovery Reopens Merger Discussions with Paramount Skydance Under Netflix Waiver
Paramount surges to 53%17%
WBD announced it would initiate a limited seven-day discussion window with Paramount Skydance to evaluate their improved offer, after Netflix granted a narrow waiver.
Paramount lifts offer to $31 per share with $40 bn Ellison equity guarantee
Paramount surges to 79%27%
Bloomberg reported Paramount raised its per‑share offer to $31 and added a $40 bn equity guarantee from Larry Ellison, pushing the “Paramount” price to a new high of 79 % by early March.
Warner Bros. Discovery reopens takeover talks with Paramount after Netflix waiver
Paramount surges to 51%20%
Warner Bros. Discovery announced it would reopen formal talks with Paramount after receiving a waiver from Netflix, sparking a sharp rise in the “Paramount” price to 51 % and a dip for “Netflix”.
Paramount submits $30 per share hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount launched a hostile $108.4 billion all-cash bid at $30 per share to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's offer and challenging the existing agreement. This intensified the bidding war and created uncertainty about the final acquirer.
Paramount adds shareholder incentives and ticking fee to Warner Bros. Discovery bid
Paramount jumps to 36%9%
Paramount Skydance enhanced its acquisition offer by including a $0.25 per share quarterly ticking fee for delays and agreeing to cover Warner Bros. Discovery's breakup fee owed to Netflix, increasing the attractiveness of its bid and pressuring shareholders.
Paramount sweetens bid with ticking fee and breakup fee coverage
Paramount Skydance enhanced its offer by adding a quarterly ticking fee and agreeing to cover Netflix’s $5.8 billion breakup fee if the Netflix deal collapsed, aiming to make its bid more attractive and address shareholder concerns about deal certainty.
Paramount Skydance enhances bid with breakup fee coverage and ticking fee incentives
Paramount jumps to 36%6%
Paramount improved its offer by agreeing to cover Netflix's $5.8 billion breakup fee and adding a quarterly ticking fee to increase bid value if delayed, pressuring Netflix and WBD shareholders to reconsider.
Paramount enhances bid with ticking fee and breakup fee coverage
Paramount jumps to 36%5%
Paramount added a ticking fee and promised to cover Warner Bros. Discovery's breakup fee owed to Netflix, making its offer more attractive and increasing pressure on Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery's board.
Paramount Submits Amended $30 Per Share Cash Proposal to Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 36%8%
Paramount submitted an updated, formal proposal of $30 per share in cash, putting pressure on WBD's board to reconsider their support for the Netflix deal.
Paramount revises offer, adds quarterly payout to Warner Bros. Discovery bid
Paramount surges to 81%45%
Paramount revised its offer, adding a per‑quarter payment to sweeten the deal. The announcement spurred the market’s “Paramount” price to jump from the low‑40s to a peak of 81 % on Mar 4, the highest level in the analysis window.
Paramount submits sweetened $30 per share bid and opens talks with Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount submitted an improved $30 per share cash offer and entered a limited discussion period with Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix's merger agreement.
Paramount Skydance sues Warner Bros. Discovery over Netflix deal disclosure
Paramount rises to 71%2%
Paramount sued Warner Bros. Discovery to force disclosure of the Netflix deal terms, briefly reviving the “Paramount” price to 71 % before the market settled.
Netflix intensifies bid for Warner Bros. Discovery with all-cash offer
Netflix revised its acquisition offer to an all-cash $72 billion deal to win shareholder support and counter Paramount Skydance's hostile bid, aiming to simplify the transaction and accelerate shareholder approval.
Netflix intensifies bid with all-cash $72 billion offer for Warner Bros. Discovery studios and streaming
Netflix dips to 66%2%
Netflix revised its offer to an all-cash $72 billion bid to win over shareholders and counter Paramount's hostile takeover attempt, aiming to simplify the deal and accelerate shareholder approval.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. acquisition offer to all-cash $72 billion deal
Netflix jumps to 31%5%
Netflix increased its offer to an all-cash deal valued at $72 billion to provide greater certainty and expedite shareholder approval amid competition from Paramount's hostile bid.
Larry Ellison guarantees $40.4 billion for Paramount bid
Paramount drops to 78%7%
Oracle founder Larry Ellison pledged a personal guarantee for $40.4 billion of equity financing for Paramount’s offer, addressing concerns about the bid’s financing and temporarily boosting confidence in Paramount’s chance to close the deal.
Netflix amends Warner Bros. deal to all-cash offer amid Paramount's hostile bid
Netflix plunges to 42%15%
Netflix converted its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition offer to an all-cash deal to increase certainty and discourage competing bids, while Paramount Skydance launched a hostile tender offer at a higher price. This intensified the bidding war and caused volatility in market prices.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition to all-cash offer
Netflix jumps to 6%5%
Netflix amended its acquisition offer to an all-cash deal at $27.75 per share to increase deal certainty and discourage competing bids, intensifying the acquisition battle.
Netflix updates Warner Bros. bid to all-cash offer to fend off Paramount
Netflix jumps to 61%7%
Netflix amended its offer to an all-cash $27.75 per share bid, gaining unanimous support from Warner Bros. Discovery's board and aiming to counter Paramount's hostile bid. This move initially boosted Netflix's price but was followed by volatility as the bidding war continued.
Netflix switches to all-cash offer to accelerate Warner Bros. acquisition
Netflix jumps to 65%9%
Netflix amended its acquisition agreement to an all-cash deal valued at $27.75 per share to provide greater certainty and speed up shareholder approval, aiming to fend off Paramount's hostile bid. This move temporarily bolstered Netflix's market position.
Netflix amends Warner Bros. Discovery deal to all-cash transaction
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery amended their acquisition agreement to an all-cash deal at $27.75 per share to increase deal certainty and speed shareholder vote. This move was partly to counter Paramount's hostile $30 per share bid.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. acquisition offer to all-cash $27.75 per share
Netflix jumps to 67%5%
Netflix revised its acquisition offer to an all-cash bid of $27.75 per share to counter Paramount's hostile bid, aiming to provide shareholders with enhanced certainty and accelerate shareholder approval. This move temporarily bolstered Netflix's position in the bidding war.
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery amend acquisition deal to all-cash transaction
Netflix surges to 71%15%
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery revised their acquisition agreement to an all-cash deal valued at $27.75 per share, aiming to provide greater certainty to shareholders and strengthen Netflix's position amid the bidding war.
Netflix’s acquisition deal faces industry backlash and regulatory scrutiny
Netflix plunges to 4%34%
Hollywood creatives and theater owners expressed strong opposition to Netflix’s proposed acquisition, citing concerns over theatrical releases and market concentration, impacting market sentiment.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s $108 billion leveraged buyout offer
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount's amended $108.4 billion offer, citing it as a risky leveraged buyout with excessive debt and operational risks. The board recommended shareholders accept Netflix's lower but more secure cash-and-stock deal, influencing market confidence.
Paramount Skydance sues Warner Bros. Discovery for disclosure on Netflix deal
Paramount filed a lawsuit seeking detailed financial disclosures about Warner Bros. Discovery's pending Netflix deal, alleging shareholders lacked sufficient information to compare offers. This legal action highlighted the ongoing battle and affected market confidence in Netflix's bid.
Paramount Skydance files lawsuit seeking financial details of Netflix deal with Warner Bros.
Paramount plunges to 26%18%
Paramount filed a lawsuit demanding Warner Bros. Discovery disclose financial details of the Netflix acquisition deal, aiming to convince shareholders that Paramount's $30/share offer is superior, escalating the takeover battle.
Paramount files lawsuit against Warner Bros. Discovery over Netflix acquisition deal transparency
Paramount sued Warner Bros. Discovery demanding disclosure of financial details about the Netflix deal, escalating the legal battle and creating uncertainty around the acquisition process.
Paramount sues Warner Bros. Discovery over Netflix deal disclosure
Paramount filed a lawsuit against Warner Bros. Discovery seeking disclosure of financial details about the Netflix deal, alleging the board failed to provide full and truthful information. This legal action highlighted the contentious nature of the acquisition process and affected market confidence.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s amended $108 billion takeover offer
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount's amended takeover offer, citing excessive debt risk and preferring the Netflix deal, which created legal and shareholder tensions affecting market perceptions.
Warner Bros. board recommends shareholders reject Paramount's offer in favor of Netflix's
Netflix rises to 31%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board publicly rejected Paramount's hostile bid, citing significant risks and debt financing, and urged shareholders to support Netflix's offer, reinforcing Netflix's position despite Paramount's higher cash bid.
Netflix declines to match Paramount’s $31 per share offer, exiting bidding war
Paramount surges to 85%84%
Netflix announced it would not raise its bid to match Paramount's $31 per share offer, effectively withdrawing from the acquisition contest. This cleared the path for Paramount to become the leading bidder and increased market confidence in Paramount's eventual acquisition.
Paramount’s tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery expires
Paramount rises to 31%1%
The tender offer deadline for Paramount’s bid passed without a binding agreement, causing the “Paramount” price to fall back toward the low‑30s and the “None” price to edge up slightly.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's $108.4 billion hostile bid
Netflix plunges to 23%34%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount Skydance's hostile all-cash bid, citing it as a risky leveraged buyout, thereby supporting Netflix's existing deal and causing market uncertainty for Paramount's chances.
Warner Bros. Discovery calls Paramount lawsuit 'meritless' amid takeover battle
Paramount rises to 28%2%
WBD responded to Paramount's lawsuit demanding more financial details on the Netflix deal by calling it 'meritless' and accused Paramount of distracting shareholders. This legal conflict underscored the intense competition and affected market confidence in Paramount's bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s $108 billion hostile bid
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Warner Bros. Discovery publicly rejected Paramount's hostile takeover bid, citing financing uncertainty and excessive risk, reaffirming its support for the Netflix deal and causing Paramount's market probability to drop temporarily.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount's hostile takeover bid, backs Netflix deal
Netflix rises to 26%4%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected Paramount's $108.4 billion hostile takeover bid, citing excessive financial risk and uncertainty. The board reaffirmed support for the Netflix deal, which they deemed to offer greater certainty and long-term value for shareholders.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. Discovery deal to all-cash offer
Netflix jumps to 53%7%
Netflix amended its acquisition agreement to convert the deal into an all-cash transaction valued at $27.75 per share, aiming to simplify the deal and accelerate shareholder approval, reinforcing Netflix's position temporarily.
Larry Ellison personally guarantees $40.4B in Paramount's hostile bid
Paramount jumps to 31%8%
Larry Ellison, father of Paramount CEO David Ellison, personally guaranteed $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount's bid, strengthening the financial backing and credibility of the hostile offer. This caused a significant increase in Paramount's market price.
Paramount extends tender offer deadline to Jan 21
Paramount surges to 85%62%
Paramount announced an extension of its tender offer window, giving shareholders more time to consider its $77.9 billion proposal, which revived hopes for Paramount’s success and lifted its price sharply.
Larry Ellison pledges $40.4 billion personal guarantee for Paramount’s Warner Bros bid
Paramount jumps to 23%9%
Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison personally guaranteed $40.4 billion in equity financing to back Paramount’s hostile bid, addressing concerns about financing reliability and strengthening Paramount’s position in the bidding war.
Paramount launches hostile $108 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 27%20%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share, backed by Larry Ellison's personal guarantee. This challenged Netflix's deal and introduced uncertainty, causing Netflix's price to fluctuate and Paramount's to initially drop then rise.
Warner board recommends shareholders back Netflix deal
Netflix plunges to 23%24%
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board issued a formal recommendation that shareholders reject Paramount’s bid and support Netflix’s acquisition, reinforcing market belief that Netflix is the likely acquirer and pushing the Netflix outcome higher.
Paramount revises offer, raises bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 74%2%
Paramount revised its tender, increasing the offer price and adding new financing guarantees, prompting a spike in the Paramount price (peak‑84% in June 2026) and a corresponding decline of the Netflix probability.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects $108 billion Paramount Skydance merger proposal
Paramount plunges to 32%16%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected a $108 billion acquisition proposal from Paramount Skydance citing concerns over financing and sovereign wealth fund involvement, causing Paramount's market probability to drop sharply.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's hostile bid, backs Netflix deal
Netflix surges to 66%38%
WBD's board formally rejected Paramount's takeover bid, reaffirming commitment to Netflix's merger agreement, citing superior terms and financing certainty, which influenced market prices.
Analysts cite rising acquisition odds for Warner Bros. Discovery
None by June 30, 2027 plunges to 5%42%
A sharp drop in the “None by June 30 2027” price to 5 % coincided with market analysts noting the increasing likelihood of a deal, reducing the probability that no acquisition would occur.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount's $108 billion bid, reaffirms Netflix deal
Netflix surges to 47%19%
Warner Bros. Discovery rejected Paramount's hostile bid citing concerns over financing and sovereign wealth fund involvement, reaffirming its pending merger with Netflix. This led to a temporary rebound in Netflix's market probability.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s $108 billion hostile takeover bid
Netflix surges to 67%21%
Warner Bros. Discovery publicly rejected Paramount's hostile $108 billion bid, citing financial risk and uncertainty, and reaffirmed support for a previously accepted $82.7 billion deal with Netflix. This rejection caused Paramount's market probability to drop sharply while Netflix's rose temporarily.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's $108 billion bid, recommends Netflix deal
Netflix plunges to 48%18%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board officially rejected Paramount's hostile takeover offer, reaffirming its support for the Netflix agreement, citing concerns over Paramount's offer and favoring Netflix's deal for studios and streaming assets.
Analysts question whether Netflix‑Warner deal will close
None by June 30, 2027 drops to 16%8%
After Netflix’s initial announcement, the market briefly shifted toward the 'None' outcome as analysts weighed whether the deal would close; the price dipped to the lowest point (16 %) for the ‘None’ option.
Netflix revises offer to all‑cash structure
Netflix plunges to 43%23%
Netflix announced it would convert its $72 billion bid for Warner’s studios and streaming business into an all‑cash deal, aiming to simplify the transaction and sway shareholders away from Paramount’s proposal, causing Netflix’s price to surge.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9 billion takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount challenged Netflix's friendly deal by making a hostile all-cash offer worth $77.9 billion for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, including cable assets Netflix does not want, increasing its market probability sharply.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's $108 billion bid, supports Netflix deal
Netflix jumps to 31%5%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount's higher bid, reaffirming support for Netflix's $82.7 billion deal, citing risks and regulatory concerns with Paramount's offer, which maintained Netflix as the favored acquirer.
Warner Bros. recommends shareholders reject Paramount's offer in favor of Netflix's
Paramount plunges to 32%16%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board urged shareholders to reject Paramount's hostile bid, citing risks and costs, and to support Netflix's offer, which it deemed superior. This led to a decline in Paramount's price and a temporary rebound in Netflix's price.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s $30/share acquisition offer, supports Netflix deal
Netflix surges to 66%38%
WBD's board formally rejected Paramount's hostile bid and reaffirmed support for Netflix's agreement, causing Paramount's market price to drop and Netflix's to stabilize.
Paramount files Delaware suit demanding valuation details of its bid
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance sued Warner Bros. Discovery in Delaware Chancery Court to force disclosure of how the company values Paramount’s offer versus Netflix’s, intensifying the takeover contest and boosting Paramount’s odds.
Comcast withdraws from Warner Bros. bidding, citing low likelihood of success
Comcast plunges to 2%31%
Comcast acknowledged its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery was unlikely to succeed due to a cash-light offer compared to rivals Netflix and Paramount, leading to its withdrawal from the bidding process early on.
Comcast enters Warner Bros. bidding but with low odds of success
Comcast plunges to 0%33%
Comcast joined the bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery but acknowledged its offer was light on cash compared to Netflix and Paramount, leading to low market confidence and eventual withdrawal from the race, reflected in Comcast's price dropping to near zero.
Paramount launches hostile $108.4 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance made a hostile all-cash offer of $108.4 billion to acquire the entire Warner Bros. Discovery company, including cable networks, surpassing Netflix's offer by about $18 billion. This bid challenged Netflix's position and introduced a competitive auction for Warner Bros.
Paramount launches hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery at $30 per share
Paramount plunges to 24%24%
Paramount Skydance responded to Netflix's deal by launching a hostile all-cash tender offer at $30 per share, valuing Warner Bros. Discovery at $108.4 billion, challenging Netflix's acquisition and escalating the bidding war.
Paramount Skydance submits hostile $108.4 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 25%23%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all-cash bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's offer by about $18 billion. This intensified the bidding war and challenged Netflix's position as the likely acquirer.
Paramount launches hostile all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery at $30 per share
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile takeover bid offering $30 per share in cash for the entire Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's offer and intensifying the bidding war. This move caused a sharp decline in Netflix's market probability and a rise for Paramount.
Comcast proposes combining NBCUniversal with Warner Bros. in new bid
Comcast proposed a new bid to merge Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming assets with NBCUniversal, aiming to create a new entertainment company. This bid increased Comcast's market presence but was ultimately less competitive than Netflix and Paramount.
Netflix announces $72 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix struck a friendly agreement to buy Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses for $72 billion, setting the initial market expectation for Netflix to close the acquisition.
Paramount Skydance makes $108.4 bn hostile all‑cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 30%18%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all‑cash bid of $30 per share ($108.4 bn) for the whole company. The price for the “Paramount” outcome jumped from 48 % to 30 % as investors weighed the higher headline value against the Netflix deal.
Comcast discloses failed bid and exits Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition race
Comcast plunges to 1%32%
Comcast co-CEO Michael Cavanagh announced that Comcast would not continue pursuing Warner Bros. Discovery after a hostile bid from Paramount and Netflix's deal announcement, leading to Comcast's market probability dropping to zero.
Paramount Launches Hostile Bid for Control of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 25%23%
Paramount Skydance launched an aggressive counter-bid of $108.4 billion ($30 per share) for the entirety of Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix's pending partial acquisition.
Paramount Skydance submits $30‑per‑share hostile tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount Skydance launched an all‑cash hostile tender offer (≈$30 per share) for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, directly challenging Netflix’s agreement and causing a sharp rise in the Paramount outcome and a rapid collapse of the Netflix probability.
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery announce definitive agreement for $72 billion acquisition
Netflix surges to 66%20%
On December 8, 2025, Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery announced a definitive agreement for Netflix to acquire Warner Bros.' studios and streaming business for $72 billion, pending the separation of Discovery Global. This formal agreement initially boosted Netflix's market probability but was later challenged by Paramount's higher bid.
Netflix announces $82.7 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery studios and streaming assets
Netflix surges to 66%20%
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery announced a definitive agreement for Netflix to acquire Warner Bros.' film and TV studios, HBO, and HBO Max for $82.7 billion, marking a major media transaction and initially positioning Netflix as the leading acquirer.
Paramount launches $108.4 billion hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance made a hostile all-cash offer of $30 per share to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's $27.75 per share offer and aiming to acquire the entire company including cable networks. This aggressive bid initiated a bidding war and caused market uncertainty.
Paramount Skydance launches $108.4 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 39%15%
Paramount Skydance countered Netflix's offer with a higher $108.4 billion all-cash bid for the entire Warner Bros. Discovery, including cable networks, backed by Larry Ellison and sovereign wealth funds. This intensified the bidding war and caused a sharp rise in Paramount's market price.
Paramount launches hostile $108 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all-cash bid of $30 per share, valuing Warner Bros. Discovery at approximately $108 billion, surpassing Netflix's offer. This aggressive move intensified the bidding war and challenged Netflix's position as the leading bidder.
Paramount launches $108 billion hostile bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 85%37%
Paramount Skydance submitted a higher $108.4 billion all-cash bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix's offer and intensifying the bidding war, which caused a significant increase in Paramount's market probability.
Paramount Skydance launches hostile $108.4 billion bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 30%4%
Paramount Skydance disrupted Netflix's apparent victory by submitting a higher, hostile all-cash bid for the entire Warner Bros. Discovery company, intensifying the acquisition battle and challenging Netflix's deal.
Paramount Skydance launches hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance, backed by the Ellison family, launched a competing all-cash tender offer to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix's deal and sparking a bidding war.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9B takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 77%29%
Paramount initiated a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share in cash, surpassing Netflix's $72 billion friendly offer. This move sparked a bidding war and caused Paramount's market price to rise sharply while Netflix's price began to decline.
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