**Paramount Skydance holds an 80.5% implied probability after securing a definitive $110.9 billion all-cash agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery in February 2026, followed by overwhelming shareholder approval in April.** The U.S. Department of Justice recently closed its antitrust review, removing a major regulatory hurdle and reinforcing trader consensus around successful closing. Earlier bidding rounds saw Netflix initially favored for studios and streaming assets before Paramount’s revised full-company tender prevailed, prompting Netflix to withdraw. Comcast’s partial-asset interest drew limited traction. The 13% probability assigned to no closing by June 30, 2027, accounts for remaining state-level reviews and standard deal timelines, while Netflix and Comcast options reflect diminished competitive positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Paramount submits concessions to European Commission for Warner Bros. merger review
Paramount rises to 86%1%
Paramount formally offered concessions to the European Commission as part of the ongoing regulatory review of its $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. This step is critical to securing EU approval and advancing the merger toward completion.
UK government signals likely intervention in Paramount's Warner Bros. Discovery takeover
Paramount dips to 81%2%
The UK Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy announced she is minded to intervene in the $110 billion Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger on public interest grounds, citing concerns about media plurality. This potential intervention introduces regulatory uncertainty and could delay the deal's completion in the UK market.
Paramount faces antitrust lawsuit challenging Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount dips to 82%3%
Paramount Skydance was served with an antitrust lawsuit alleging the acquisition would reduce competition and harm consumers, introducing legal risks and potential delays to the merger process.
Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery expected to close in Q3 2026
Paramount jumps to 81%5%
Following Netflix’s withdrawal and regulatory approvals, Paramount Skydance’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery is on track to close in the third quarter of 2026, effectively ending the bidding war and confirming Paramount as the acquirer.
U.S. Department of Justice and FCC clear Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 82%1%
The U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Communications Commission approved Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, removing the final regulatory obstacles and paving the way for the deal to close in Q3 2026. This regulatory clearance solidified Paramount's position as the acquirer.
U.S. Department of Justice approves Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The U.S. Department of Justice granted approval for Paramount Skydance's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, allowing the $110 billion deal to proceed. This regulatory clearance was a critical step toward finalizing the acquisition and confirmed Paramount as the acquirer.
Warner Bros. Discovery shares trade below deal price after DOJ approval amid remaining risks
Despite DOJ approval, WBD shares traded below the $31 deal price reflecting investor caution about remaining state-level legal challenges and international regulatory reviews, indicating some execution risk remains.
Paramount’s $110 billion Warner Bros. acquisition cleared by DOJ
Paramount jumps to 87%6%
The U.S. Department of Justice approved Paramount’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros., marking a major milestone despite ongoing legal challenges from some states, boosting market confidence in Paramount’s closing chances.
U.S. Department of Justice clears Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 86%4%
The U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Communications Commission approved Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, removing final regulatory hurdles and enabling the deal to close in Q3 2026. This regulatory clearance confirmed Paramount's acquisition as the market's resolution.
DOJ clears Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 85%8%
The DOJ announced it would not challenge the Paramount‑Warner Bros. deal, clearing the biggest antitrust obstacle. The news lifted Paramount’s probability further and gave a modest bump to the “None” outcome as the window for delays narrowed.
US Department of Justice approves Paramount's $111 billion Warner Bros. merger
Paramount rises to 87%3%
The US DOJ's antitrust division approved Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery after months of review, clearing a major regulatory hurdle. Despite ongoing investigations by some state attorneys general, this approval significantly increased confidence in Paramount closing the deal.
Department of Justice approves Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The U.S. Department of Justice cleared Paramount Skydance’s $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, concluding it would not harm competition. This regulatory approval was a critical step toward finalizing the acquisition, solidifying Paramount's position as the acquirer.
U.S. Justice Department approves Paramount Skydance’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 82%8%
The U.S. Department of Justice cleared the $111 billion Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, removing a major regulatory hurdle. The approval paves the way for the merger to close, though state attorneys general are preparing lawsuits to block the deal, and European regulators are still reviewing it.
US Department of Justice clears Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The US DOJ concluded its antitrust investigation, determining that Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery is unlikely to harm competition, removing a major regulatory hurdle and increasing the likelihood of deal closure.
European Union and Austrian authorities expected to approve Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery deal
The European Union and Austrian Federal Competition Authority indicated expected approval of the Paramount acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, signaling regulatory clearance in key jurisdictions and advancing the deal toward completion.
Netflix reports solid Q4 but stock falls amid subscriber growth concerns
Netflix dips to 0%1%
Netflix reported strong financial results but slowing subscriber growth raised concerns, impacting its stock negatively. This added pressure on Netflix's ability to close the Warner Bros. acquisition, reflected in its market price decline to near zero.
Warner Bros. board reaffirms Netflix offer superior, urges shareholders to reject Paramount
Netflix dips to 0%2%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board again recommended shareholders reject Paramount's hostile bid, citing risks and debt concerns, and endorsed Netflix's offer as providing superior value and certainty, reinforcing Netflix's favored status in the acquisition race.
U.S. Department of Justice and FCC clear Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 82%2%
Regulatory approval from the DOJ and FCC removed the final major obstacles for Paramount's acquisition, solidifying the deal's likelihood and pushing market prices to near certainty for Paramount's win.
EU completes phase‑1 review of Paramount‑Warner Bros. deal
None by June 30, 2027 rises to 13%1%
The European Commission completed its phase‑1 antitrust review of the Paramount‑WBD deal, signalling that EU clearance was on track. The news nudged the “None” probability upward as investors priced in possible regulatory delays.
European antitrust regulators complete phase 1 review of Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery deal
Paramount jumps to 84%10%
The European antitrust review phase 1 was completed smoothly, suggesting regulatory approval is progressing well, which supports the expected closing timeline of the Paramount acquisition.
Warner Bros. CinemaCon show highlights upcoming films amid acquisition uncertainty
Paramount jumps to 80%10%
Warner Bros. showcased major upcoming films at CinemaCon, reflecting ongoing business as usual despite the pending acquisition battle. Industry concerns about consolidation effects on production and theaters were noted, influencing market sentiment about the acquisition's future.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve merger with Paramount Skydance
Paramount jumps to 86%14%
Shareholders of Warner Bros. Discovery voted to approve the $110 billion merger with Paramount Skydance, marking a major step toward closing the acquisition. This approval solidified Paramount's position as the likely acquirer.
Comcast files letter of intent for Warner Bros. Discovery streaming assets
Comcast rises to 1%1%
Comcast quietly filed a letter of intent to explore a possible bid for Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming assets; the market’s “Comcast” probability rose briefly from 0 % to 1 % before returning to zero.
Market shifts toward longer acquisition timeline amid UK regulatory scrutiny
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 29%11%
The prediction market saw a significant increase in the probability that no acquisition would close before July 2027, reflecting concerns about regulatory delays in the UK and the complexity of the approval process, which could extend the deal timeline.
Market shifts toward delayed Warner Bros. acquisition amid UK regulatory scrutiny
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 29%11%
The prediction market saw a significant increase in the probability that no acquisition would close before July 2027, reflecting concerns about regulatory delays in the UK and Europe, causing a temporary dip in Paramount's acquisition odds.
Regulatory uncertainty pushes “None” probability higher
None by June 30, 2027 jumps to 29%11%
A market‑price spike for the “None” outcome followed reports of heightened scrutiny in the United Kingdom and pending state‑level challenges, pushing investors to assign more probability to a delayed or failed closing.
Larry Ellison guarantees $40.4B equity financing for Paramount's Warner bid
Paramount rises to 77%3%
Larry Ellison, Oracle founder and father of Paramount CEO David Ellison, personally guaranteed $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount's hostile bid, bolstering Paramount's financial backing and intensifying the takeover battle.
Paramount responds to industry opposition over Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount issued a statement defending its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery amid an open letter from thousands of industry professionals opposing the merger, highlighting concerns about competition and creative impact. This event reflected growing public and regulatory scrutiny.
Warner Bros. Discovery reiterates support for Netflix deal amid ongoing Paramount bid
Warner Bros. Discovery's leadership reaffirmed their commitment to the Netflix acquisition, emphasizing the superior value and certainty of the Netflix deal despite Paramount's ongoing hostile bid and proxy fight.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. offer to all-cash deal to counter Paramount
Netflix dips to 1%1%
Netflix revised its $72 billion offer for Warner Bros. Discovery to an all-cash transaction, simplifying the deal structure to provide more certainty to shareholders and speed up the shareholder vote, strengthening its competitive position against Paramount's hostile bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders vote on Netflix merger amid ongoing Paramount talks
Netflix dips to 74%1%
WBD held a special shareholder meeting to vote on the Netflix merger while simultaneously initiating discussions with Paramount for their best and final offer, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and competition between the two bidders.
Paramount completes $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount finalized the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery for $31 per share, reshaping the media landscape. The deal ended the months-long bidding war and confirmed Paramount as the acquirer of Warner Bros. studios and streaming businesses.
Netflix withdraws from Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition race
Paramount jumps to 88%14%
Netflix announced it would no longer pursue the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing financial unattractiveness. This cleared the path for Paramount to finalize the acquisition, reflected in Paramount's price surge to 88%.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9B bid challenging Netflix's $72B Warner Bros. deal
Paramount drops to 68%11%
Paramount publicly launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $77.9 billion in cash for the entire company, including cable assets Netflix does not want, escalating the bidding war and causing market volatility.
Paramount advances hostile takeover with plans to nominate own Warner Bros. board
Paramount dips to 74%2%
Paramount announced it would nominate its own slate of directors for Warner Bros. Discovery before the next shareholder meeting and filed a lawsuit to compel disclosure of Warner's valuation of bids, intensifying the hostile takeover attempt.
Warner board reaffirms support for Netflix merger
None by June 30, 2027 rises to 15%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board reiterated its recommendation that shareholders approve the Netflix acquisition, effectively diminishing the perceived viability of Paramount’s bid and causing the ‘None by June 30 2027’ outcome to dip further.
Warner Bros. rejects Paramount takeover again, backs Netflix deal
Paramount rises to 14%4%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board again rejected Paramount's hostile takeover bid, reaffirming support for Netflix's offer. This reinforced market confidence in Netflix's deal but Paramount's bid remained active, keeping the contest alive.
Warner Bros rejects Paramount takeover again, backs Netflix bid
Netflix dips to 2%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected Paramount's hostile takeover offer, citing insufficient value and risks, and urged shareholders to support Netflix's $72 billion deal for the studios and streaming business, reinforcing Netflix's position in the market.
Paramount Skydance secures Department of Justice approval for Warner Bros. acquisition
The U.S. Department of Justice cleared Paramount Skydance’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, finding no antitrust violations and stating the deal would likely strengthen competition. This regulatory approval was a major step toward closing the acquisition.
Paramount extends $77.9B hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount dips to 76%3%
Paramount extended its tender offer deadline and doubled down on a proxy fight to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share in cash for the entire company, challenging Netflix's $72 billion deal for just the studios and streaming business. This escalated the bidding war and increased market uncertainty.
Paramount announces $110 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 87%12%
Paramount Skydance announced a $110 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, paying $31 per share in cash, after Netflix declined to match the offer, marking the conclusion of the bidding war and reshaping the media industry.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. offer to all-cash transaction to counter Paramount
Netflix plunges to 2%48%
Netflix converted its original cash-and-stock offer to an all-cash deal valued at $72 billion to simplify the transaction and increase certainty for shareholders, aiming to counter Paramount's hostile bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance sign $110 billion merger agreement
Paramount surges to 78%47%
After Netflix declined to raise its offer, Warner Bros. Discovery agreed to a $110 billion merger deal with Paramount Skydance, marking a decisive shift in the acquisition race and causing Paramount's market price to surge.
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery announce $110 billion acquisition agreement
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery entered a definitive agreement for Paramount to acquire the entire company for $110 billion, terminating the Netflix deal and marking a decisive shift in the acquisition race.
Netflix price collapses after market doubts on deal completion
Netflix plunges to 1%46%
Following reports that regulatory hurdles and the pending spin‑off of Warner’s cable assets could delay the Netflix acquisition, investor confidence eroded sharply, driving Netflix’s market price down to near zero.
Netflix revises $72B Warner Bros. offer to all-cash deal
Netflix plunges to 2%46%
Netflix converted its original cash-and-stock offer into an all-cash transaction to simplify the deal and make it more attractive to Warner Bros. shareholders, aiming to counter Paramount's hostile bid. This move initially boosted Netflix's price but was insufficient to regain lost ground.
Warner Bros. Discovery board accepts Paramount’s $31 per share offer, ending Netflix deal
Paramount surges to 81%55%
After negotiations and Paramount raising its bid to $31 per share, Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount’s proposal was superior to Netflix’s and signed a definitive agreement, effectively ending Netflix’s acquisition attempt.
Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery announce definitive acquisition agreement
Paramount rises to 86%1%
Paramount Skydance and WBD announced a definitive agreement for Paramount to acquire WBD for $110.9 billion, formalizing the deal and signaling Paramount's lead in the acquisition race.
Paramount Skydance signs $110 bn deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 84%10%
Paramount Skydance signed a definitive acquisition agreement to buy Warner Bros. Discovery for $31 per share (≈$110 bn). The deal’s signing caused the Paramount outcome to surge to its highest levels (84‑88 %) and effectively eliminated the Netflix probability.
Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance sign definitive merger agreement
Paramount jumps to 85%14%
Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance entered into a definitive agreement for Paramount to acquire the entire company for $31 per share, marking a major milestone in the acquisition process and signaling Paramount's lead in the deal.
Netflix drops Warner Bros. deal after White House visit
Netflix plunges to 0%45%
A CapWolf article reported that Netflix walked away from its Warner Bros. deal after a White House visit, confirming the deal’s collapse. The market’s “Netflix” probability fell to 1 % shortly thereafter and hit 0 % by late April.
Paramount Skydance confirms $110 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 81%51%
Paramount Skydance confirmed its agreement to acquire all of Warner Bros. Discovery for $110 billion, marking the likely conclusion of the bidding war and setting the stage for regulatory approval and closing.
Warner Bros. Discovery signs definitive agreement to be acquired by Paramount
Paramount surges to 87%63%
After reopening negotiations, Warner Bros. Discovery determined Paramount’s revised proposal of $31 per share was superior to Netflix’s offer, leading to a signed definitive agreement for acquisition expected to close in Q3 2026.
Paramount announces $31 per share offer, winning board approval over Netflix
Paramount surges to 80%30%
Paramount increased its bid to $31 per share in cash, valued at approximately $110 billion, which Warner Bros. Discovery's board deemed superior to Netflix's offer, reopening negotiations and shifting market probabilities heavily in Paramount's favor.
Paramount Skydance submits superior $110 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros.
Paramount surges to 88%57%
Paramount Skydance announced a topping all-cash bid of $31 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $110 billion, surpassing Netflix's offer. This led Warner Bros. Discovery to terminate its agreement with Netflix and accept Paramount's proposal, causing a major shift in market expectations.
Paramount signs definitive agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 85%51%
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery signed a definitive agreement to acquire the entire company, including studios and streaming assets. The agreement cemented Paramount as the likely acquirer and was reflected in the large jump in Paramount odds that day.
Netflix exits bidding war, declines to raise offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix announced it would not increase its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, effectively exiting the bidding war. This cleared the way for Paramount to become the leading bidder, shifting market expectations towards a Paramount acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery deems Paramount’s revised $31/share offer superior, Netflix declines to match
Paramount surges to 81%51%
Warner Bros. Discovery confirmed Paramount’s updated $31 per share all-cash offer was superior to Netflix’s, triggering a period for Netflix to improve its bid. Netflix declined to increase its offer, effectively ending its pursuit and clearing the way for Paramount’s acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery board approves Paramount’s $31 per share acquisition offer
Paramount surges to 85%55%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount's $31 per share all-cash offer was superior to Netflix's deal, leading Netflix to decline to match the bid and exit the acquisition race. This decision significantly increased Paramount's market probability and ended Netflix's chances.
Warner Bros. Discovery board declares Paramount's revised $110 billion offer superior
Paramount surges to 85%48%
After Netflix declined to raise its bid, WBD's board determined Paramount's $110 billion offer was a superior proposal, shifting market expectations strongly in favor of Paramount.
Netflix withdraws from Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition race
Paramount surges to 85%46%
Netflix announced it would not raise its offer for Warner Bros. Discovery, effectively exiting the bidding war and paving the way for Paramount to proceed with its acquisition. This caused Netflix's market probability to collapse to near zero and Paramount's to surge.
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery reach agreement; Netflix declines to improve offer
Paramount surges to 81%51%
After negotiations, Warner Bros. Discovery determined Paramount’s revised proposal to acquire all outstanding shares for $31 per share was superior to Netflix’s deal. Netflix declined to improve its offer, effectively ceding the acquisition to Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery board determines Paramount's revised proposal superior, Netflix declines to improve offer
Paramount surges to 82%54%
After renewed negotiations, Warner Bros. Discovery's board found Paramount's updated offer superior, triggering a match period during which Netflix declined to raise its bid, effectively ending Netflix's pursuit and boosting Paramount's market price sharply.
Warner Bros. Discovery board deems Paramount's revised bid superior, triggers Netflix matching period
Paramount surges to 81%45%
WBD's board considered Paramount's updated $31/share all-cash offer superior to Netflix's, initiating a four-business-day window for Netflix to improve its bid, signaling a shift in acquisition likelihood towards Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery considers Paramount's bid superior, Netflix declines to increase offer
Paramount surges to 81%50%
Warner Bros. Discovery confirmed Paramount's updated bid was superior, triggering a period for Netflix to improve its offer. Netflix declined, effectively exiting the bidding war, which shifted market confidence strongly toward Paramount.
Netflix CEO visits White House amid antitrust concerns over Warner Bros. deal
Netflix plunges to 1%45%
Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos visited Washington to address antitrust concerns regarding the Warner Bros. acquisition, attempting to secure regulatory approval amid growing scrutiny and a renewed bidding war with Paramount.
Netflix withdraws its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix plunges to 0%45%
Netflix announced it would not match Paramount’s raised offer and withdrew its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, removing the rival bid, caused Netflix‑related market odds to plummet and Paramount‑related odds to spike as investors saw Paramount becoming the clear front‑runner.
Netflix declines to match Paramount's higher $31 per share bid, exiting Warner Bros. acquisition race
Paramount surges to 52%31%
Netflix announced it would not match Paramount's higher all-cash bid of $31 per share, effectively ending its pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery. This decision shifted market confidence decisively toward Paramount as the likely acquirer.
Netflix declines to match Paramount's higher bid and exits Warner Bros. Discovery deal
Paramount surges to 86%85%
Netflix chose not to increase its bid to match Paramount's $31 per share offer, citing financial unattractiveness, effectively ending its pursuit and clearing the way for Paramount's acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery reviews revised Paramount Skydance acquisition proposal
Paramount jumps to 36%5%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board reviewed a revised acquisition offer from Paramount Skydance, indicating ongoing negotiations and competition with Netflix's existing deal, impacting market probabilities.
Warner Bros. Discovery opens talks with Paramount amid Netflix merger support
Warner Bros. Discovery began a limited discussion period with Paramount to consider its higher offer, while continuing to support the Netflix merger. This created market volatility and uncertainty about the deal's outcome.
Paramount extends tender offer deadline for Warner Bros. shares
Paramount surges to 85%49%
Paramount extended the deadline for its tender offer to acquire Warner Bros. shares, signaling persistence in its hostile bid and causing a sharp rise in Paramount's market price as investors anticipated increased chances of success.
Netflix declines to raise offer, effectively exiting bidding war with Paramount
Paramount dips to 1%2%
Netflix announced it would not increase its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, effectively conceding the bidding war to Paramount Skydance, which had offered a higher all-cash price. This marked a turning point favoring Paramount's acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery reopens talks with Paramount amid Netflix merger backing
Warner Bros. Discovery allowed a limited negotiation period with Paramount despite backing Netflix's merger, reflecting ongoing competition and uncertainty in the acquisition process, affecting market probabilities.
Warner Bros. Discovery reopens takeover talks with Paramount after Netflix waiver
Paramount surges to 51%20%
Warner Bros. Discovery announced it would reopen formal talks with Paramount after receiving a waiver from Netflix, sparking a sharp rise in the “Paramount” price to 51 % and a dip for “Netflix”.
Paramount sweetens bid with ticking fee and breakup fee coverage
Paramount Skydance enhanced its offer by adding a quarterly ticking fee and agreeing to cover Netflix’s $5.8 billion breakup fee if the Netflix deal collapsed, aiming to make its bid more attractive and address shareholder concerns about deal certainty.
Paramount adds shareholder incentives and ticking fee to Warner Bros. Discovery bid
Paramount jumps to 36%9%
Paramount Skydance enhanced its acquisition offer by including a $0.25 per share quarterly ticking fee for delays and agreeing to cover Warner Bros. Discovery's breakup fee owed to Netflix, increasing the attractiveness of its bid and pressuring shareholders.
Paramount enhances bid with ticking fee and breakup fee coverage
Paramount jumps to 36%5%
Paramount added a ticking fee and promised to cover Warner Bros. Discovery's breakup fee owed to Netflix, making its offer more attractive and increasing pressure on Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery's board.
Paramount Skydance enhances bid with breakup fee coverage and ticking fee incentives
Paramount jumps to 36%6%
Paramount improved its offer by agreeing to cover Netflix's $5.8 billion breakup fee and adding a quarterly ticking fee to increase bid value if delayed, pressuring Netflix and WBD shareholders to reconsider.
Paramount revises offer, adds quarterly payout to Warner Bros. Discovery bid
Paramount surges to 81%45%
Paramount revised its offer, adding a per‑quarter payment to sweeten the deal. The announcement spurred the market’s “Paramount” price to jump from the low‑40s to a peak of 81 % on Mar 4, the highest level in the analysis window.
Paramount submits $30 per share hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount launched a hostile $108.4 billion all-cash bid at $30 per share to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's offer and challenging the existing agreement. This intensified the bidding war and created uncertainty about the final acquirer.
Netflix intensifies bid with all-cash $72 billion offer for Warner Bros. Discovery studios and streaming
Netflix dips to 66%2%
Netflix revised its offer to an all-cash $72 billion bid to win over shareholders and counter Paramount's hostile takeover attempt, aiming to simplify the deal and accelerate shareholder approval.
Netflix amends Warner Bros. Discovery deal to all-cash transaction
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery amended their acquisition agreement to an all-cash deal at $27.75 per share to increase deal certainty and speed shareholder vote. This move was partly to counter Paramount's hostile $30 per share bid.
Netflix switches to all-cash offer to accelerate Warner Bros. acquisition
Netflix jumps to 65%9%
Netflix amended its acquisition agreement to an all-cash deal valued at $27.75 per share to provide greater certainty and speed up shareholder approval, aiming to fend off Paramount's hostile bid. This move temporarily bolstered Netflix's market position.
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery amend acquisition deal to all-cash transaction
Netflix surges to 71%15%
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery revised their acquisition agreement to an all-cash deal valued at $27.75 per share, aiming to provide greater certainty to shareholders and strengthen Netflix's position amid the bidding war.
Netflix amends Warner Bros. deal to all-cash offer amid Paramount's hostile bid
Netflix plunges to 42%15%
Netflix converted its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition offer to an all-cash deal to increase certainty and discourage competing bids, while Paramount Skydance launched a hostile tender offer at a higher price. This intensified the bidding war and caused volatility in market prices.
Larry Ellison guarantees $40.4 billion for Paramount bid
Paramount drops to 78%7%
Oracle founder Larry Ellison pledged a personal guarantee for $40.4 billion of equity financing for Paramount’s offer, addressing concerns about the bid’s financing and temporarily boosting confidence in Paramount’s chance to close the deal.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. acquisition offer to all-cash $27.75 per share
Netflix jumps to 67%5%
Netflix revised its acquisition offer to an all-cash bid of $27.75 per share to counter Paramount's hostile bid, aiming to provide shareholders with enhanced certainty and accelerate shareholder approval. This move temporarily bolstered Netflix's position in the bidding war.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s $108 billion leveraged buyout offer
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount's amended $108.4 billion offer, citing it as a risky leveraged buyout with excessive debt and operational risks. The board recommended shareholders accept Netflix's lower but more secure cash-and-stock deal, influencing market confidence.
Netflix’s acquisition deal faces industry backlash and regulatory scrutiny
Netflix plunges to 4%34%
Hollywood creatives and theater owners expressed strong opposition to Netflix’s proposed acquisition, citing concerns over theatrical releases and market concentration, impacting market sentiment.
Paramount Skydance sues Warner Bros. Discovery for disclosure on Netflix deal
Paramount filed a lawsuit seeking detailed financial disclosures about Warner Bros. Discovery's pending Netflix deal, alleging shareholders lacked sufficient information to compare offers. This legal action highlighted the ongoing battle and affected market confidence in Netflix's bid.
Netflix declines to match Paramount’s $31 per share offer, exiting bidding war
Paramount surges to 85%84%
Netflix announced it would not raise its bid to match Paramount's $31 per share offer, effectively withdrawing from the acquisition contest. This cleared the path for Paramount to become the leading bidder and increased market confidence in Paramount's eventual acquisition.
Warner Bros. board recommends shareholders reject Paramount's offer in favor of Netflix's
Netflix rises to 31%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board publicly rejected Paramount's hostile bid, citing significant risks and debt financing, and urged shareholders to support Netflix's offer, reinforcing Netflix's position despite Paramount's higher cash bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount's hostile takeover bid, backs Netflix deal
Netflix rises to 26%4%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected Paramount's $108.4 billion hostile takeover bid, citing excessive financial risk and uncertainty. The board reaffirmed support for the Netflix deal, which they deemed to offer greater certainty and long-term value for shareholders.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s $108 billion hostile bid
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Warner Bros. Discovery publicly rejected Paramount's hostile takeover bid, citing financing uncertainty and excessive risk, reaffirming its support for the Netflix deal and causing Paramount's market probability to drop temporarily.
Warner Bros. Discovery calls Paramount lawsuit 'meritless' amid takeover battle
Paramount rises to 28%2%
WBD responded to Paramount's lawsuit demanding more financial details on the Netflix deal by calling it 'meritless' and accused Paramount of distracting shareholders. This legal conflict underscored the intense competition and affected market confidence in Paramount's bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's $108.4 billion hostile bid
Netflix plunges to 23%34%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount Skydance's hostile all-cash bid, citing it as a risky leveraged buyout, thereby supporting Netflix's existing deal and causing market uncertainty for Paramount's chances.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. Discovery deal to all-cash offer
Netflix jumps to 53%7%
Netflix amended its acquisition agreement to convert the deal into an all-cash transaction valued at $27.75 per share, aiming to simplify the deal and accelerate shareholder approval, reinforcing Netflix's position temporarily.
Larry Ellison personally guarantees $40.4B in Paramount's hostile bid
Paramount jumps to 31%8%
Larry Ellison, father of Paramount CEO David Ellison, personally guaranteed $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount's bid, strengthening the financial backing and credibility of the hostile offer. This caused a significant increase in Paramount's market price.
Paramount revises offer, raises bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 74%2%
Paramount revised its tender, increasing the offer price and adding new financing guarantees, prompting a spike in the Paramount price (peak‑84% in June 2026) and a corresponding decline of the Netflix probability.
Warner board recommends shareholders back Netflix deal
Netflix plunges to 23%24%
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board issued a formal recommendation that shareholders reject Paramount’s bid and support Netflix’s acquisition, reinforcing market belief that Netflix is the likely acquirer and pushing the Netflix outcome higher.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount's $108 billion bid, reaffirms Netflix deal
Netflix surges to 47%19%
Warner Bros. Discovery rejected Paramount's hostile bid citing concerns over financing and sovereign wealth fund involvement, reaffirming its pending merger with Netflix. This led to a temporary rebound in Netflix's market probability.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects $108 billion Paramount Skydance merger proposal
Paramount plunges to 32%16%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected a $108 billion acquisition proposal from Paramount Skydance citing concerns over financing and sovereign wealth fund involvement, causing Paramount's market probability to drop sharply.
Analysts cite rising acquisition odds for Warner Bros. Discovery
None by June 30, 2027 plunges to 5%42%
A sharp drop in the “None by June 30 2027” price to 5 % coincided with market analysts noting the increasing likelihood of a deal, reducing the probability that no acquisition would occur.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's hostile bid, backs Netflix deal
Netflix surges to 66%38%
WBD's board formally rejected Paramount's takeover bid, reaffirming commitment to Netflix's merger agreement, citing superior terms and financing certainty, which influenced market prices.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's $108 billion bid, backs Netflix deal
Netflix surges to 66%40%
WBD's board unanimously rejected Paramount's hostile $108 billion offer, citing it as a risky leveraged buyout, and reaffirmed support for Netflix's $82.7 billion deal focused on studios and streaming assets. This rejection caused Paramount's market probability to dip temporarily.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s $108 billion hostile takeover bid
Netflix surges to 67%21%
Warner Bros. Discovery publicly rejected Paramount's hostile $108 billion bid, citing financial risk and uncertainty, and reaffirmed support for a previously accepted $82.7 billion deal with Netflix. This rejection caused Paramount's market probability to drop sharply while Netflix's rose temporarily.
Netflix revises offer to all‑cash structure
Netflix plunges to 43%23%
Netflix announced it would convert its $72 billion bid for Warner’s studios and streaming business into an all‑cash deal, aiming to simplify the transaction and sway shareholders away from Paramount’s proposal, causing Netflix’s price to surge.
Analysts question whether Netflix‑Warner deal will close
None by June 30, 2027 drops to 16%8%
After Netflix’s initial announcement, the market briefly shifted toward the 'None' outcome as analysts weighed whether the deal would close; the price dipped to the lowest point (16 %) for the ‘None’ option.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9 billion takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount challenged Netflix's friendly deal by making a hostile all-cash offer worth $77.9 billion for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, including cable assets Netflix does not want, increasing its market probability sharply.
Warner Bros. recommends shareholders reject Paramount's offer in favor of Netflix's
Paramount plunges to 32%16%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board urged shareholders to reject Paramount's hostile bid, citing risks and costs, and to support Netflix's offer, which it deemed superior. This led to a decline in Paramount's price and a temporary rebound in Netflix's price.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's $108 billion bid, supports Netflix deal
Netflix jumps to 31%5%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount's higher bid, reaffirming support for Netflix's $82.7 billion deal, citing risks and regulatory concerns with Paramount's offer, which maintained Netflix as the favored acquirer.
Paramount files Delaware suit demanding valuation details of its bid
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance sued Warner Bros. Discovery in Delaware Chancery Court to force disclosure of how the company values Paramount’s offer versus Netflix’s, intensifying the takeover contest and boosting Paramount’s odds.
Netflix announces $82.7 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming businesses
Netflix surges to 69%23%
Netflix publicly announced a deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s film and TV studios, HBO, and HBO Max, marking a historic shift and initially positioning Netflix as the likely acquirer.
Paramount Skydance launches hostile $108 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 24%24%
Paramount Skydance made a hostile takeover bid of $30 per share, totaling $108 billion, to acquire all of Warner Bros. Discovery, including cable networks. This offer surpassed Netflix's and introduced significant competition, causing market uncertainty and a drop in Netflix's acquisition probability.
Comcast withdraws from Warner Bros. bidding, citing low likelihood of success
Comcast plunges to 2%31%
Comcast acknowledged its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery was unlikely to succeed due to a cash-light offer compared to rivals Netflix and Paramount, leading to its withdrawal from the bidding process early on.
Paramount Skydance submits $30‑per‑share hostile tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount Skydance launched an all‑cash hostile tender offer (≈$30 per share) for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, directly challenging Netflix’s agreement and causing a sharp rise in the Paramount outcome and a rapid collapse of the Netflix probability.
Comcast discloses failed bid and exits Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition race
Comcast plunges to 1%32%
Comcast co-CEO Michael Cavanagh announced that Comcast would not continue pursuing Warner Bros. Discovery after a hostile bid from Paramount and Netflix's deal announcement, leading to Comcast's market probability dropping to zero.
Comcast proposes combining NBCUniversal with Warner Bros. in new bid
Comcast proposed a new bid to merge Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming assets with NBCUniversal, aiming to create a new entertainment company. This bid increased Comcast's market presence but was ultimately less competitive than Netflix and Paramount.
Paramount launches hostile $108 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance made a hostile all-cash offer of $108.4 billion directly to Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders, surpassing Netflix's bid and challenging the existing deal. This caused a sharp increase in Paramount's market probability.
Paramount launches hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery at $30 per share
Paramount plunges to 24%24%
Paramount Skydance responded to Netflix's deal by launching a hostile all-cash tender offer at $30 per share, valuing Warner Bros. Discovery at $108.4 billion, challenging Netflix's acquisition and escalating the bidding war.
Paramount launches $108.4 billion hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount dips to 44%4%
Paramount Skydance announced a hostile all-cash bid of $108.4 billion for Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix's $82.7 billion deal and intensifying the acquisition battle. This bid offered a 139% premium over WBD's stock price, causing significant market attention and price movements favoring Paramount.
Paramount launches hostile all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery at $30 per share
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile takeover bid offering $30 per share in cash for the entire Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's offer and intensifying the bidding war. This move caused a sharp decline in Netflix's market probability and a rise for Paramount.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9B takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 77%29%
Paramount initiated a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share in cash, surpassing Netflix's $72 billion friendly offer. This move sparked a bidding war and caused Paramount's market price to rise sharply while Netflix's price began to decline.
Paramount launches $108 billion hostile bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 26%22%
Paramount Skydance made a hostile all-cash bid of $108.4 billion for Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's offer and challenging the existing deal, intensifying the acquisition battle.
Paramount Skydance makes $108.4 bn hostile all‑cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 30%18%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all‑cash bid of $30 per share ($108.4 bn) for the whole company. The price for the “Paramount” outcome jumped from 48 % to 30 % as investors weighed the higher headline value against the Netflix deal.
Paramount launches hostile $108.4 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 27%21%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all-cash bid of $108.4 billion directly to Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders, challenging Netflix's deal and causing a sharp drop in Netflix's market price and a rise in Paramount's.
Paramount Skydance submits hostile $108.4 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 25%23%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all-cash bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's offer by about $18 billion. This intensified the bidding war and challenged Netflix's position as the likely acquirer.

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