Traders assign a 95.9% implied probability against OpenAI being acquired before 2027 because the company continues to expand aggressively through its own acquisitions of developer tools, infrastructure, and hardware assets while advancing toward an independent IPO. Recent moves, including multiple 2026 deals for cloud environments and AI agents, signal a strategy of building scale rather than seeking a buyer, reinforced by ongoing partnership renegotiations with Microsoft that prioritize model access over ownership changes. Near-term catalysts such as earnings updates or regulatory reviews of large AI consolidations could still introduce volatility, though any completed deal would face significant antitrust scrutiny and valuation complexities that have historically delayed similar transactions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-30
是
4% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 95.9% implied probability against OpenAI being acquired before 2027 because the company continues to expand aggressively through its own acquisitions of developer tools, infrastructure, and hardware assets while advancing toward an independent IPO. Recent moves, including multiple 2026 deals for cloud environments and AI agents, signal a strategy of building scale rather than seeking a buyer, reinforced by ongoing partnership renegotiations with Microsoft that prioritize model access over ownership changes. Near-term catalysts such as earnings updates or regulatory reviews of large AI consolidations could still introduce volatility, though any completed deal would face significant antitrust scrutiny and valuation complexities that have historically delayed similar transactions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 5:06 PM ET
交易量
$4,599結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 95.9% implied probability against OpenAI being acquired before 2027 because the company continues to expand aggressively through its own acquisitions of developer tools, infrastructure, and hardware assets while advancing toward an independent IPO. Recent moves, including multiple 2026 deals for cloud environments and AI agents, signal a strategy of building scale rather than seeking a buyer, reinforced by ongoing partnership renegotiations with Microsoft that prioritize model access over ownership changes. Near-term catalysts such as earnings updates or regulatory reviews of large AI consolidations could still introduce volatility, though any completed deal would face significant antitrust scrutiny and valuation complexities that have historically delayed similar transactions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$4,599結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.9% implied probability against OpenAI being acquired before 2027 because the company continues to expand aggressively through its own acquisitions of developer tools, infrastructure, and hardware assets while advancing toward an independent IPO. Recent moves, including multiple 2026 deals for cloud environments and AI agents, signal a strategy of building scale rather than seeking a buyer, reinforced by ongoing partnership renegotiations with Microsoft that prioritize model access over ownership changes. Near-term catalysts such as earnings updates or regulatory reviews of large AI consolidations could still introduce volatility, though any completed deal would face significant antitrust scrutiny and valuation complexities that have historically delayed similar transactions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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