Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila project a maximum of 31°C on August 14 amid persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions that deliver frequent cloud cover and scattered to heavy rains, moderating peak heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 30–31°C outcomes at combined implied probabilities near 49%, as monsoon-driven convection and high humidity (often exceeding 80%) limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. Historical August averages near 31°C provide a baseline, while short-term model runs show limited day-to-day variance absent a tropical cyclone landfall or abrupt steering shift. Upcoming 24–48 hour PAGASA updates and any revised monsoon intensity will be key resolution drivers, given the tight spread between leading bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月14日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
8月14日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
31°C 33%
30°C 27%
32°C 19%
29°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
25°C或以下
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
10%
30°C
27%
31°C
33%
32°C
19%
33°C
4%
34°C
1%
35°C或以上
1%
31°C 33%
30°C 27%
32°C 19%
29°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
25°C或以下
$20 交易量
<1%
26°C
$10 交易量
1%
27°C
$12 交易量
1%
28°C
$129 交易量
4%
29°C
$99 交易量
10%
30°C
$0 交易量
27%
31°C
$0 交易量
33%
32°C
$0 交易量
19%
33°C
$21 交易量
4%
34°C
$23 交易量
1%
35°C或以上
$15 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila project a maximum of 31°C on August 14 amid persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions that deliver frequent cloud cover and scattered to heavy rains, moderating peak heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 30–31°C outcomes at combined implied probabilities near 49%, as monsoon-driven convection and high humidity (often exceeding 80%) limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. Historical August averages near 31°C provide a baseline, while short-term model runs show limited day-to-day variance absent a tropical cyclone landfall or abrupt steering shift. Upcoming 24–48 hour PAGASA updates and any revised monsoon intensity will be key resolution drivers, given the tight spread between leading bins.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$330結束日期
2026-08-14市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila project a maximum of 31°C on August 14 amid persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions that deliver frequent cloud cover and scattered to heavy rains, moderating peak heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 30–31°C outcomes at combined implied probabilities near 49%, as monsoon-driven convection and high humidity (often exceeding 80%) limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. Historical August averages near 31°C provide a baseline, while short-term model runs show limited day-to-day variance absent a tropical cyclone landfall or abrupt steering shift. Upcoming 24–48 hour PAGASA updates and any revised monsoon intensity will be key resolution drivers, given the tight spread between leading bins.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$330結束日期
2026-08-14市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila project a maximum of 31°C on August 14 amid persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions that deliver frequent cloud cover and scattered to heavy rains, moderating peak heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 30–31°C outcomes at combined implied probabilities near 49%, as monsoon-driven convection and high humidity (often exceeding 80%) limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. Historical August averages near 31°C provide a baseline, while short-term model runs show limited day-to-day variance absent a tropical cyclone landfall or abrupt steering shift. Upcoming 24–48 hour PAGASA updates and any revised monsoon intensity will be key resolution drivers, given the tight spread between leading bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions