Short-term forecasts from global and regional models position Chongqing’s August 12 high near 36–37°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure system over the Sichuan Basin, driving the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes at roughly 31–33% implied probability each. Historical August averages hover around 34°C, yet midsummer conditions often feature weak steering flow, elevated humidity, and limited cloud cover that can push daily maxima 1–2°C higher or lower depending on exact timing of any weak trough or moisture influx. Model consensus remains tight this close to the event, with minor run-to-run differences in boundary-layer mixing and insolation determining whether the peak registers at 36°C or 37°C; traders are effectively pricing residual forecast uncertainty rather than divergent long-term trends.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月12日重慶氣溫最高？
8月12日重慶氣溫最高？
37°C 33%
36°C 31%
35°C 16%
38°C 14%
最新
$13,614 交易量
最新
$13,614 交易量
2026-08-12
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
2%
34°C
4%
35°C
16%
36°C
31%
37°C
33%
38°C
14%
39°C
5%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
<1%
37°C 33%
36°C 31%
35°C 16%
38°C 14%
最新
$13,614 交易量
最新
$13,614 交易量
2026-08-12
31°C or below
$1,527 交易量
<1%
32°C
$310 交易量
1%
33°C
$1,134 交易量
2%
34°C
$1,208 交易量
4%
35°C
$529 交易量
16%
36°C
$4,381 交易量
31%
37°C
$1,906 交易量
33%
38°C
$908 交易量
14%
39°C
$907 交易量
5%
40°C
$518 交易量
1%
41°C or higher
$868 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecasts from global and regional models position Chongqing’s August 12 high near 36–37°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure system over the Sichuan Basin, driving the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes at roughly 31–33% implied probability each. Historical August averages hover around 34°C, yet midsummer conditions often feature weak steering flow, elevated humidity, and limited cloud cover that can push daily maxima 1–2°C higher or lower depending on exact timing of any weak trough or moisture influx. Model consensus remains tight this close to the event, with minor run-to-run differences in boundary-layer mixing and insolation determining whether the peak registers at 36°C or 37°C; traders are effectively pricing residual forecast uncertainty rather than divergent long-term trends.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$13,614結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecasts from global and regional models position Chongqing’s August 12 high near 36–37°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure system over the Sichuan Basin, driving the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes at roughly 31–33% implied probability each. Historical August averages hover around 34°C, yet midsummer conditions often feature weak steering flow, elevated humidity, and limited cloud cover that can push daily maxima 1–2°C higher or lower depending on exact timing of any weak trough or moisture influx. Model consensus remains tight this close to the event, with minor run-to-run differences in boundary-layer mixing and insolation determining whether the peak registers at 36°C or 37°C; traders are effectively pricing residual forecast uncertainty rather than divergent long-term trends.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$13,614結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETShort-term forecasts from global and regional models position Chongqing’s August 12 high near 36–37°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure system over the Sichuan Basin, driving the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes at roughly 31–33% implied probability each. Historical August averages hover around 34°C, yet midsummer conditions often feature weak steering flow, elevated humidity, and limited cloud cover that can push daily maxima 1–2°C higher or lower depending on exact timing of any weak trough or moisture influx. Model consensus remains tight this close to the event, with minor run-to-run differences in boundary-layer mixing and insolation determining whether the peak registers at 36°C or 37°C; traders are effectively pricing residual forecast uncertainty rather than divergent long-term trends.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions