Weather models from Chinese meteorological agencies point to a peak temperature near 36°C in Chongqing on August 13, driven by the lingering influence of the western Pacific subtropical high that has maintained clear skies and subsidence across the Yangtze River basin. This setup favors strong daytime heating in the urban heat island environment, where concrete and topography trap warmth, pushing readings above the long-term August average of 33–34°C. Ensemble forecasts show limited day-to-day variability, explaining why traders have concentrated implied probability on the 35–37°C range while assigning low odds to extremes above 38°C or below 34°C. Updated model runs tonight will further refine the exact maximum before the market resolves.