Recent model runs and official guidance from sources like the German Weather Service and ECMWF ensembles indicate mostly sunny conditions over southern Bavaria on August 12, 2026, with afternoon highs centered near 29–31 °C. This places the 30 °C outcome at the center of the distribution (49.5 % implied probability), followed by 31 °C (23.5 %) and 29 °C (20.5 %). The pattern reflects a ridge of high pressure supporting modest daytime warming after cooler early-August readings, tempered by light winds and limited moisture. Ensemble spread remains modest, with few members exceeding 32 °C or falling below 28 °C, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to those tails. Updated short-range forecasts issued in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact maximum and could shift volume among the three leading contracts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月12日慕尼黑的最高溫度？
8月12日慕尼黑的最高溫度？
30°C 49%
31°C 24%
29°C 21%
32°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-12
26°C或以下
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
21%
30°C
49%
31°C
24%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C或更高
<1%
30°C 49%
31°C 24%
29°C 21%
32°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-12
26°C或以下
$98 交易量
1%
27°C
$99 交易量
1%
28°C
$135 交易量
4%
29°C
$642 交易量
21%
30°C
$376 交易量
49%
31°C
$161 交易量
24%
32°C
$114 交易量
5%
33°C
$105 交易量
2%
34°C
$79 交易量
<1%
35°C
$156 交易量
<1%
36°C或更高
$210 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs and official guidance from sources like the German Weather Service and ECMWF ensembles indicate mostly sunny conditions over southern Bavaria on August 12, 2026, with afternoon highs centered near 29–31 °C. This places the 30 °C outcome at the center of the distribution (49.5 % implied probability), followed by 31 °C (23.5 %) and 29 °C (20.5 %). The pattern reflects a ridge of high pressure supporting modest daytime warming after cooler early-August readings, tempered by light winds and limited moisture. Ensemble spread remains modest, with few members exceeding 32 °C or falling below 28 °C, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to those tails. Updated short-range forecasts issued in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact maximum and could shift volume among the three leading contracts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$1,939結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs and official guidance from sources like the German Weather Service and ECMWF ensembles indicate mostly sunny conditions over southern Bavaria on August 12, 2026, with afternoon highs centered near 29–31 °C. This places the 30 °C outcome at the center of the distribution (49.5 % implied probability), followed by 31 °C (23.5 %) and 29 °C (20.5 %). The pattern reflects a ridge of high pressure supporting modest daytime warming after cooler early-August readings, tempered by light winds and limited moisture. Ensemble spread remains modest, with few members exceeding 32 °C or falling below 28 °C, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to those tails. Updated short-range forecasts issued in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact maximum and could shift volume among the three leading contracts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,939結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent model runs and official guidance from sources like the German Weather Service and ECMWF ensembles indicate mostly sunny conditions over southern Bavaria on August 12, 2026, with afternoon highs centered near 29–31 °C. This places the 30 °C outcome at the center of the distribution (49.5 % implied probability), followed by 31 °C (23.5 %) and 29 °C (20.5 %). The pattern reflects a ridge of high pressure supporting modest daytime warming after cooler early-August readings, tempered by light winds and limited moisture. Ensemble spread remains modest, with few members exceeding 32 °C or falling below 28 °C, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to those tails. Updated short-range forecasts issued in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact maximum and could shift volume among the three leading contracts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions