Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from KNMI and the Met Office have positioned 28 °C as the central tendency for Amsterdam’s daily maximum on August 12, aligning with the market’s 55.5 % implied probability. A strengthening high-pressure ridge supports southerly warm-air advection and deeper boundary-layer mixing, elevating temperatures 5–7 °C above the long-term August climatological average of 21–22 °C. Modest uncertainties in cloud-cover timing, mixing depth, and potential late-day sea-breeze effects keep 27 °C and 29 °C viable under small model perturbations, consistent with their combined 42.5 % share. Final overnight model runs and initial surface observations are expected to tighten the range ahead of official KNMI verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月12日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度?
28°C 56%
29°C 24%
27°C 19%
30°C 1.7%
$28,931 交易量
$28,931 交易量
23°C或以下
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
19%
28°C
56%
29°C
24%
30°C
2%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C或以上
<1%
28°C 56%
29°C 24%
27°C 19%
30°C 1.7%
$28,931 交易量
$28,931 交易量
23°C或以下
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
19%
28°C
56%
29°C
24%
30°C
2%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C或以上
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from KNMI and the Met Office have positioned 28 °C as the central tendency for Amsterdam’s daily maximum on August 12, aligning with the market’s 55.5 % implied probability. A strengthening high-pressure ridge supports southerly warm-air advection and deeper boundary-layer mixing, elevating temperatures 5–7 °C above the long-term August climatological average of 21–22 °C. Modest uncertainties in cloud-cover timing, mixing depth, and potential late-day sea-breeze effects keep 27 °C and 29 °C viable under small model perturbations, consistent with their combined 42.5 % share. Final overnight model runs and initial surface observations are expected to tighten the range ahead of official KNMI verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於


警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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