Recent forecasts from meteorological models position peak temperatures in Guangzhou around 37–38°C on August 12, above the historical August average high of roughly 33°C, driving the market's 52.5% implied probability on 38°C and 26.5% on 39°C. Subtropical summer conditions, including high humidity, limited cloud cover, and weak steering winds, support heat accumulation in the region, with official outlooks noting potential for readings near or above 39°C under persistent high-pressure influence. Trader sentiment aggregates these model runs while accounting for typical forecast uncertainty, such as shifts in timing of any showers or slight variations in maximum readings reported by local stations. Upcoming model updates and observational data in the next 24 hours remain key variables that could adjust these odds before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月12日廣州最高溫度？
8月12日廣州最高溫度？
38°C 54%
39°C 26%
37°C 22%
36°C 1.1%
最新
$16,540 交易量
最新
$16,540 交易量
2026-08-12
31°C或以下
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
22%
38°C
54%
39°C
26%
40°C
1%
41°C或以上
<1%
38°C 54%
39°C 26%
37°C 22%
36°C 1.1%
最新
$16,540 交易量
最新
$16,540 交易量
2026-08-12
31°C或以下
$471 交易量
<1%
32°C
$450 交易量
<1%
33°C
$546 交易量
<1%
34°C
$1,088 交易量
<1%
35°C
$1,102 交易量
1%
36°C
$2,577 交易量
1%
37°C
$2,340 交易量
22%
38°C
$3,397 交易量
54%
39°C
$2,078 交易量
26%
40°C
$1,538 交易量
1%
41°C或以上
$952 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models position peak temperatures in Guangzhou around 37–38°C on August 12, above the historical August average high of roughly 33°C, driving the market's 52.5% implied probability on 38°C and 26.5% on 39°C. Subtropical summer conditions, including high humidity, limited cloud cover, and weak steering winds, support heat accumulation in the region, with official outlooks noting potential for readings near or above 39°C under persistent high-pressure influence. Trader sentiment aggregates these model runs while accounting for typical forecast uncertainty, such as shifts in timing of any showers or slight variations in maximum readings reported by local stations. Upcoming model updates and observational data in the next 24 hours remain key variables that could adjust these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$16,540結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models position peak temperatures in Guangzhou around 37–38°C on August 12, above the historical August average high of roughly 33°C, driving the market's 52.5% implied probability on 38°C and 26.5% on 39°C. Subtropical summer conditions, including high humidity, limited cloud cover, and weak steering winds, support heat accumulation in the region, with official outlooks noting potential for readings near or above 39°C under persistent high-pressure influence. Trader sentiment aggregates these model runs while accounting for typical forecast uncertainty, such as shifts in timing of any showers or slight variations in maximum readings reported by local stations. Upcoming model updates and observational data in the next 24 hours remain key variables that could adjust these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$16,540結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ETRecent forecasts from meteorological models position peak temperatures in Guangzhou around 37–38°C on August 12, above the historical August average high of roughly 33°C, driving the market's 52.5% implied probability on 38°C and 26.5% on 39°C. Subtropical summer conditions, including high humidity, limited cloud cover, and weak steering winds, support heat accumulation in the region, with official outlooks noting potential for readings near or above 39°C under persistent high-pressure influence. Trader sentiment aggregates these model runs while accounting for typical forecast uncertainty, such as shifts in timing of any showers or slight variations in maximum readings reported by local stations. Upcoming model updates and observational data in the next 24 hours remain key variables that could adjust these odds before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions