Current forecast models for Chengdu indicate peak temperatures likely in the mid-30s Celsius on August 11, driven by typical late-summer high pressure, elevated humidity, and scattered thunderstorms that can cap daytime maxima through cloud cover or brief cooling. Official guidance shows variability across runs, with some projecting 38°C under clearer conditions while others favor 34–36°C amid convective activity. Historical August baselines near 30–34°C provide context, yet recent observational trends and model spreads create genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds. Traders appear to weigh these meteorological variables and resolution criteria—official highest recorded temperature—favoring outcomes clustered at 35–37°C. Updated model guidance and monitoring agency briefings will likely refine sentiment ahead of resolution.