**KMA short-range guidance positions a 34°C maximum for Busan on August 11 under clear skies and light easterly flow, yet market pricing centers on 30–31°C (combined ~64% implied probability) due to ensemble spread and coastal moderation.** The North Pacific High maintains warm advection across southeast Korea, but Busan’s marine influence and sea-breeze effects often cap observed highs 2–4°C below inland stations. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on the synoptic setup, with minimal precipitation risk, yet traders appear to discount the upper tail of guidance given historical August maxima near 29–31°C and typical verification adjustments for official station readings. Updated KMA and international model runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the daily high resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月11日釜山的最高溫度?
30°C 40%
31°C 24%
29°C 17%
32°C 12%
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
8%
29°C
17%
30°C
40%
31°C
24%
32°C
12%
33°C
3%
34°C or higher
3%
30°C 40%
31°C 24%
29°C 17%
32°C 12%
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
8%
29°C
17%
30°C
40%
31°C
24%
32°C
12%
33°C
3%
34°C or higher
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
**KMA short-range guidance positions a 34°C maximum for Busan on August 11 under clear skies and light easterly flow, yet market pricing centers on 30–31°C (combined ~64% implied probability) due to ensemble spread and coastal moderation.** The North Pacific High maintains warm advection across southeast Korea, but Busan’s marine influence and sea-breeze effects often cap observed highs 2–4°C below inland stations. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on the synoptic setup, with minimal precipitation risk, yet traders appear to discount the upper tail of guidance given historical August maxima near 29–31°C and typical verification adjustments for official station readings. Updated KMA and international model runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the daily high resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於



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