Persistent high pressure over southern England, southerly winds advecting warm continental air, and clear skies maximizing solar insolation have positioned London for a peak temperature near 35°C on August 13, aligning with the Met Office official forecast and amber extreme heat warning. This setup underpins the market's leading 44% implied probability for the 35°C outcome, with 34°C and 36°C each at 27% reflecting tight ensemble model spreads and historical analogs for late-summer anticyclonic conditions. Minor revisions in short-range forecasts or afternoon cloud development could shift the final London City Airport observation between these thresholds, while broader heatwave context shows multiple 30°C+ days already this summer.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月13日倫敦的最高溫度?
35°C 45%
36°C 26%
34°C 26%
33°C 3.9%
$122,597 交易量
$122,597 交易量
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
4%
34°C
26%
35°C
45%
36°C
26%
37°C
3%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 45%
36°C 26%
34°C 26%
33°C 3.9%
$122,597 交易量
$122,597 交易量
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
4%
34°C
26%
35°C
45%
36°C
26%
37°C
3%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent high pressure over southern England, southerly winds advecting warm continental air, and clear skies maximizing solar insolation have positioned London for a peak temperature near 35°C on August 13, aligning with the Met Office official forecast and amber extreme heat warning. This setup underpins the market's leading 44% implied probability for the 35°C outcome, with 34°C and 36°C each at 27% reflecting tight ensemble model spreads and historical analogs for late-summer anticyclonic conditions. Minor revisions in short-range forecasts or afternoon cloud development could shift the final London City Airport observation between these thresholds, while broader heatwave context shows multiple 30°C+ days already this summer.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions