Trader consensus heavily favors an 18°C minimum in Paris on August 12 due to current heatwave conditions, with official forecasts from agencies like Météo-France pointing to overnight lows stabilizing near that level amid daytime highs exceeding 35°C. Persistent high pressure and clear skies have limited radiative cooling, keeping temperatures elevated compared to August climatological averages of 15–18°C, while urban heat island effects in the city further support this floor. Model runs show minimal divergence on this threshold, though a late-day thunderstorm or unexpected wind shift could introduce slight cooling. Resolution hinges on official station readings at Paris-Montsouris, with any revision in final verified data representing the main uncertainty for market participants.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月12日巴黎最低溫度？
8月12日巴黎最低溫度？
18°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$13,201 交易量
$13,201 交易量
2026-08-12
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$13,201 交易量
$13,201 交易量
2026-08-12
14°C or below
$383 交易量
No
15°C
$829 交易量
No
16°C
$1,207 交易量
No
17°C
$1,807 交易量
No
18°C
$3,633 交易量
Yes
19°C
$2,252 交易量
No
20°C
$1,534 交易量
No
21°C
$304 交易量
No
22°C
$574 交易量
No
23°C
$345 交易量
No
24°C or higher
$335 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors an 18°C minimum in Paris on August 12 due to current heatwave conditions, with official forecasts from agencies like Météo-France pointing to overnight lows stabilizing near that level amid daytime highs exceeding 35°C. Persistent high pressure and clear skies have limited radiative cooling, keeping temperatures elevated compared to August climatological averages of 15–18°C, while urban heat island effects in the city further support this floor. Model runs show minimal divergence on this threshold, though a late-day thunderstorm or unexpected wind shift could introduce slight cooling. Resolution hinges on official station readings at Paris-Montsouris, with any revision in final verified data representing the main uncertainty for market participants.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$13,201結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors an 18°C minimum in Paris on August 12 due to current heatwave conditions, with official forecasts from agencies like Météo-France pointing to overnight lows stabilizing near that level amid daytime highs exceeding 35°C. Persistent high pressure and clear skies have limited radiative cooling, keeping temperatures elevated compared to August climatological averages of 15–18°C, while urban heat island effects in the city further support this floor. Model runs show minimal divergence on this threshold, though a late-day thunderstorm or unexpected wind shift could introduce slight cooling. Resolution hinges on official station readings at Paris-Montsouris, with any revision in final verified data representing the main uncertainty for market participants.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$13,201結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus heavily favors an 18°C minimum in Paris on August 12 due to current heatwave conditions, with official forecasts from agencies like Météo-France pointing to overnight lows stabilizing near that level amid daytime highs exceeding 35°C. Persistent high pressure and clear skies have limited radiative cooling, keeping temperatures elevated compared to August climatological averages of 15–18°C, while urban heat island effects in the city further support this floor. Model runs show minimal divergence on this threshold, though a late-day thunderstorm or unexpected wind shift could introduce slight cooling. Resolution hinges on official station readings at Paris-Montsouris, with any revision in final verified data representing the main uncertainty for market participants.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions