The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 7,000 confirmed cases and roughly 3,400 deaths across seven provinces as of early September 2026, drives the 97% market-implied probability against a 2026 Ebola pandemic. Official CDC and WHO data show this is the second-largest Ebola event on record but remains regionally concentrated, with limited exportations to Uganda (now resolved) and negligible risk of sustained community transmission elsewhere due to the virus's primary spread via direct contact with bodily fluids rather than airborne routes. Historical precedents, including the 2014–2016 West Africa epidemic, highlight that effective surveillance, contact tracing, and isolation can prevent global escalation despite local insecurity and displacement challenges. While model projections note potential for further growth without scaled interventions, current containment measures and low U.S./global importation risk support trader consensus for a non-pandemic outcome, though delayed response or new exportations could alter trajectories.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
3% 機率
$760,572 交易量
$760,572 交易量
2026-12-31
3% 機率
$760,572 交易量
$760,572 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 7,000 confirmed cases and roughly 3,400 deaths across seven provinces as of early September 2026, drives the 97% market-implied probability against a 2026 Ebola pandemic. Official CDC and WHO data show this is the second-largest Ebola event on record but remains regionally concentrated, with limited exportations to Uganda (now resolved) and negligible risk of sustained community transmission elsewhere due to the virus's primary spread via direct contact with bodily fluids rather than airborne routes. Historical precedents, including the 2014–2016 West Africa epidemic, highlight that effective surveillance, contact tracing, and isolation can prevent global escalation despite local insecurity and displacement challenges. While model projections note potential for further growth without scaled interventions, current containment measures and low U.S./global importation risk support trader consensus for a non-pandemic outcome, though delayed response or new exportations could alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
交易量
$760,572結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 7,000 confirmed cases and roughly 3,400 deaths across seven provinces as of early September 2026, drives the 97% market-implied probability against a 2026 Ebola pandemic. Official CDC and WHO data show this is the second-largest Ebola event on record but remains regionally concentrated, with limited exportations to Uganda (now resolved) and negligible risk of sustained community transmission elsewhere due to the virus's primary spread via direct contact with bodily fluids rather than airborne routes. Historical precedents, including the 2014–2016 West Africa epidemic, highlight that effective surveillance, contact tracing, and isolation can prevent global escalation despite local insecurity and displacement challenges. While model projections note potential for further growth without scaled interventions, current containment measures and low U.S./global importation risk support trader consensus for a non-pandemic outcome, though delayed response or new exportations could alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$760,620結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETThe ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 7,000 confirmed cases and roughly 3,400 deaths across seven provinces as of early September 2026, drives the 97% market-implied probability against a 2026 Ebola pandemic. Official CDC and WHO data show this is the second-largest Ebola event on record but remains regionally concentrated, with limited exportations to Uganda (now resolved) and negligible risk of sustained community transmission elsewhere due to the virus's primary spread via direct contact with bodily fluids rather than airborne routes. Historical precedents, including the 2014–2016 West Africa epidemic, highlight that effective surveillance, contact tracing, and isolation can prevent global escalation despite local insecurity and displacement challenges. While model projections note potential for further growth without scaled interventions, current containment measures and low U.S./global importation risk support trader consensus for a non-pandemic outcome, though delayed response or new exportations could alter trajectories.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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