Recent heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover over Chengdu, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration, have suppressed daytime heating and shifted market-implied odds toward 27–28°C as the most likely peak on August 19. Subtropical monsoon patterns typical of mid-to-late August in the Sichuan Basin favor scattered showers that reduce solar insolation and limit temperature recovery, consistent with AccuWeather’s extended range showing highs trending near the 29°C monthly average but currently cooler. Model consensus highlights steering flows and humidity levels as key variables that could allow brief clearing and a modest rebound to 29°C or higher if precipitation diminishes earlier than expected. Traders weigh these short-term dynamics against climatological baselines, where late-month cooling often caps peaks below early-August extremes. Updated CMA guidance and regional model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution probabilities for this narrow temperature band.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月19日成都最高溫度？
8月19日成都最高溫度？
28°C 32%
27°C 26%
29°C 14%
26°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-19
23°C or below
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
5%
26°C
13%
27°C
26%
28°C
32%
29°C
14%
30°C
7%
31°C
5%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 32%
27°C 26%
29°C 14%
26°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-19
23°C or below
$1,497 交易量
1%
24°C
$305 交易量
3%
25°C
$70 交易量
5%
26°C
$78 交易量
13%
27°C
$135 交易量
26%
28°C
$2,953 交易量
32%
29°C
$57 交易量
14%
30°C
$63 交易量
7%
31°C
$118 交易量
5%
32°C
$31 交易量
1%
33°C or higher
$35 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover over Chengdu, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration, have suppressed daytime heating and shifted market-implied odds toward 27–28°C as the most likely peak on August 19. Subtropical monsoon patterns typical of mid-to-late August in the Sichuan Basin favor scattered showers that reduce solar insolation and limit temperature recovery, consistent with AccuWeather’s extended range showing highs trending near the 29°C monthly average but currently cooler. Model consensus highlights steering flows and humidity levels as key variables that could allow brief clearing and a modest rebound to 29°C or higher if precipitation diminishes earlier than expected. Traders weigh these short-term dynamics against climatological baselines, where late-month cooling often caps peaks below early-August extremes. Updated CMA guidance and regional model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution probabilities for this narrow temperature band.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$5,343結束日期
2026-08-19市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover over Chengdu, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration, have suppressed daytime heating and shifted market-implied odds toward 27–28°C as the most likely peak on August 19. Subtropical monsoon patterns typical of mid-to-late August in the Sichuan Basin favor scattered showers that reduce solar insolation and limit temperature recovery, consistent with AccuWeather’s extended range showing highs trending near the 29°C monthly average but currently cooler. Model consensus highlights steering flows and humidity levels as key variables that could allow brief clearing and a modest rebound to 29°C or higher if precipitation diminishes earlier than expected. Traders weigh these short-term dynamics against climatological baselines, where late-month cooling often caps peaks below early-August extremes. Updated CMA guidance and regional model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution probabilities for this narrow temperature band.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$5,343結束日期
2026-08-19市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover over Chengdu, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration, have suppressed daytime heating and shifted market-implied odds toward 27–28°C as the most likely peak on August 19. Subtropical monsoon patterns typical of mid-to-late August in the Sichuan Basin favor scattered showers that reduce solar insolation and limit temperature recovery, consistent with AccuWeather’s extended range showing highs trending near the 29°C monthly average but currently cooler. Model consensus highlights steering flows and humidity levels as key variables that could allow brief clearing and a modest rebound to 29°C or higher if precipitation diminishes earlier than expected. Traders weigh these short-term dynamics against climatological baselines, where late-month cooling often caps peaks below early-August extremes. Updated CMA guidance and regional model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution probabilities for this narrow temperature band.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions