Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, at exactly 25°C, driven by official China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations showing the daily maximum peaked at 25°C during mid-afternoon under clear skies and northwest winds that capped warming. Current readings hover at 24°C late in the day, with declining solar angles and light breezes limiting further rises, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing and AccuWeather model consensus forecasts. Realistic challenges include a late-evening station revision uncovering a 26°C outlier or prolonged clear conditions enabling a minor rebound, though sunset and stable atmospheric conditions make this unlikely as CMA finalizes reports.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 7?
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$124,103 Vol.
$124,103 Vol.
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$124,103 Vol.
$124,103 Vol.
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, at exactly 25°C, driven by official China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations showing the daily maximum peaked at 25°C during mid-afternoon under clear skies and northwest winds that capped warming. Current readings hover at 24°C late in the day, with declining solar angles and light breezes limiting further rises, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing and AccuWeather model consensus forecasts. Realistic challenges include a late-evening station revision uncovering a 26°C outlier or prolonged clear conditions enabling a minor rebound, though sunset and stable atmospheric conditions make this unlikely as CMA finalizes reports.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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