Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C at 100% implied probability for Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 2, 2026, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) official observational data confirming this exact value as the absolute daily maximum, recorded via standard meteorological instruments at the King's Park station. This aligns with pre-event 9-day forecast models projecting 27–28°C amid mainly fine conditions and early May climatological norms of around 28°C average highs, influenced by subtropical high-pressure influence and normal to above-normal seasonal temperatures. While HKO data carries high reliability, realistic challenges could include post-preliminary quality control revisions uncovering sensor anomalies or recalibrations, though such occurrences are exceedingly rare for finalized daily extracts. Market awaits final resolution per HKO criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 2?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 2?
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$357,563 Vol.
$357,563 Vol.
May 2, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$357,563 Vol.
$357,563 Vol.
May 2, 2026
21°C or below
$4,318 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,265 Vol.
No
23°C
$5,392 Vol.
No
24°C
$5,460 Vol.
No
25°C
$11,421 Vol.
No
26°C
$155,933 Vol.
No
27°C
$47,252 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$62,529 Vol.
No
29°C
$35,509 Vol.
No
30°C
$17,021 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$11,464 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C at 100% implied probability for Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 2, 2026, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) official observational data confirming this exact value as the absolute daily maximum, recorded via standard meteorological instruments at the King's Park station. This aligns with pre-event 9-day forecast models projecting 27–28°C amid mainly fine conditions and early May climatological norms of around 28°C average highs, influenced by subtropical high-pressure influence and normal to above-normal seasonal temperatures. While HKO data carries high reliability, realistic challenges could include post-preliminary quality control revisions uncovering sensor anomalies or recalibrations, though such occurrences are exceedingly rare for finalized daily extracts. Market awaits final resolution per HKO criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Volume
$357,563End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C at 100% implied probability for Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 2, 2026, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) official observational data confirming this exact value as the absolute daily maximum, recorded via standard meteorological instruments at the King's Park station. This aligns with pre-event 9-day forecast models projecting 27–28°C amid mainly fine conditions and early May climatological norms of around 28°C average highs, influenced by subtropical high-pressure influence and normal to above-normal seasonal temperatures. While HKO data carries high reliability, realistic challenges could include post-preliminary quality control revisions uncovering sensor anomalies or recalibrations, though such occurrences are exceedingly rare for finalized daily extracts. Market awaits final resolution per HKO criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$357,563End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C at 100% implied probability for Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 2, 2026, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) official observational data confirming this exact value as the absolute daily maximum, recorded via standard meteorological instruments at the King's Park station. This aligns with pre-event 9-day forecast models projecting 27–28°C amid mainly fine conditions and early May climatological norms of around 28°C average highs, influenced by subtropical high-pressure influence and normal to above-normal seasonal temperatures. While HKO data carries high reliability, realistic challenges could include post-preliminary quality control revisions uncovering sensor anomalies or recalibrations, though such occurrences are exceedingly rare for finalized daily extracts. Market awaits final resolution per HKO criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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