Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Madrid on June 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 23?
41°C 100.0%
36°C or below <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$107,795 KL.
$107,795 KL.
Jun 23, 2026
36°C or below
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
Yes
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C or higher
No
41°C 100.0%
36°C or below <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$107,795 KL.
$107,795 KL.
Jun 23, 2026
36°C or below
$446 KL.
No
37°C
$2,814 KL.
No
38°C
$10,114 KL.
No
39°C
$23,679 KL.
No
40°C
$26,166 KL.
No
41°C
$15,024 KL.
Yes
42°C
$12,824 KL.
No
43°C
$7,517 KL.
No
44°C
$6,817 KL.
No
45°C
$1,980 KL.
No
46°C or higher
$413 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Jun 21, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$107,795Ngày kết thúc
Jun 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 21, 2026, 12:08 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$107,795Ngày kết thúc
Jun 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 21, 2026, 12:08 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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