Official AEMET observations from Madrid's key meteorological stations, including Ciudad Universitaria peaking at 21.4°C around 17:00 on May 4, 2026, have confirmed the highest temperature at 21°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability on this outcome. Cloudy conditions with isolated showers in the Sierra de Guadarrama and mild southerly flows capped daytime highs, aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts from AEMET and model consensus predicting maxima near 21°C amid spring-like atmospheric patterns. Trader sentiment, backed by real capital, reflects this verified data as ground truth for resolution criteria based on integer peaks from official stations. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data correction from an overlooked station exceeding 21.9°C could shift it, though no such evidence has surfaced in preliminary summaries. Final AEMET daily bulletin expected shortly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Madrid on May 4?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 4?
21°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$125,017 交易量
$125,017 交易量
2026-05-04
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$125,017 交易量
$125,017 交易量
2026-05-04
15°C or below
$480 交易量
No
16°C
$825 交易量
No
17°C
$5,101 交易量
No
18°C
$8,798 交易量
No
19°C
$9,577 交易量
No
20°C
$40,069 交易量
No
21°C
$13,863 交易量
Yes
22°C
$18,909 交易量
No
23°C
$10,022 交易量
No
24°C
$11,375 交易量
No
25°C or higher
$5,999 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official AEMET observations from Madrid's key meteorological stations, including Ciudad Universitaria peaking at 21.4°C around 17:00 on May 4, 2026, have confirmed the highest temperature at 21°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability on this outcome. Cloudy conditions with isolated showers in the Sierra de Guadarrama and mild southerly flows capped daytime highs, aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts from AEMET and model consensus predicting maxima near 21°C amid spring-like atmospheric patterns. Trader sentiment, backed by real capital, reflects this verified data as ground truth for resolution criteria based on integer peaks from official stations. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data correction from an overlooked station exceeding 21.9°C could shift it, though no such evidence has surfaced in preliminary summaries. Final AEMET daily bulletin expected shortly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
交易量
$125,017結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official AEMET observations from Madrid's key meteorological stations, including Ciudad Universitaria peaking at 21.4°C around 17:00 on May 4, 2026, have confirmed the highest temperature at 21°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability on this outcome. Cloudy conditions with isolated showers in the Sierra de Guadarrama and mild southerly flows capped daytime highs, aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts from AEMET and model consensus predicting maxima near 21°C amid spring-like atmospheric patterns. Trader sentiment, backed by real capital, reflects this verified data as ground truth for resolution criteria based on integer peaks from official stations. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data correction from an overlooked station exceeding 21.9°C could shift it, though no such evidence has surfaced in preliminary summaries. Final AEMET daily bulletin expected shortly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$125,017結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Official AEMET observations from Madrid's key meteorological stations, including Ciudad Universitaria peaking at 21.4°C around 17:00 on May 4, 2026, have confirmed the highest temperature at 21°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability on this outcome. Cloudy conditions with isolated showers in the Sierra de Guadarrama and mild southerly flows capped daytime highs, aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts from AEMET and model consensus predicting maxima near 21°C amid spring-like atmospheric patterns. Trader sentiment, backed by real capital, reflects this verified data as ground truth for resolution criteria based on integer peaks from official stations. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data correction from an overlooked station exceeding 21.9°C could shift it, though no such evidence has surfaced in preliminary summaries. Final AEMET daily bulletin expected shortly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions