**Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm advection from subtropical air masses underpin the tight clustering around 36–37°C for Madrid’s June 30 maximum.** Official guidance from AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate continued clear skies and strong daytime insolation through the end of the month, following an intense late-June heatwave that produced several days above 38°C. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise strength of the Iberian high creates the near-even split between 36°C (41.5%) and 37°C (40.0%), with lower probabilities for 35°C or 38°C reflecting uncertainty in whether modest Atlantic moisture or slight wind shifts will cap the peak. Historical June climatology for Retiro station shows typical maxima near 31–32°C, so current conditions represent a clear positive anomaly driven by the amplified ridge. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model runs and AEMET updates most heavily ahead of the final 24-hour verification window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於6月30日馬德裏氣溫最高？
6月30日馬德裏氣溫最高？
37°C 100.0%
31°C或以下 <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$91,938 交易量
$91,938 交易量
2026-06-30
31°C或以下
否
32°C
否
33°C
否
34°C
否
35°C
否
36°C
否
37°C
是
38°C
否
39°C
否
40°C
否
41°C或以上
否
37°C 100.0%
31°C或以下 <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$91,938 交易量
$91,938 交易量
2026-06-30
31°C或以下
$3,068 交易量
否
32°C
$1,182 交易量
否
33°C
$2,032 交易量
否
34°C
$5,290 交易量
否
35°C
$9,727 交易量
否
36°C
$17,194 交易量
否
37°C
$22,146 交易量
是
38°C
$13,354 交易量
否
39°C
$6,997 交易量
否
40°C
$5,280 交易量
否
41°C或以上
$5,668 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm advection from subtropical air masses underpin the tight clustering around 36–37°C for Madrid’s June 30 maximum.** Official guidance from AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate continued clear skies and strong daytime insolation through the end of the month, following an intense late-June heatwave that produced several days above 38°C. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise strength of the Iberian high creates the near-even split between 36°C (41.5%) and 37°C (40.0%), with lower probabilities for 35°C or 38°C reflecting uncertainty in whether modest Atlantic moisture or slight wind shifts will cap the peak. Historical June climatology for Retiro station shows typical maxima near 31–32°C, so current conditions represent a clear positive anomaly driven by the amplified ridge. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model runs and AEMET updates most heavily ahead of the final 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jun 28, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
交易量
$91,938結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Jun 28, 2026, 1:02 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm advection from subtropical air masses underpin the tight clustering around 36–37°C for Madrid’s June 30 maximum.** Official guidance from AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate continued clear skies and strong daytime insolation through the end of the month, following an intense late-June heatwave that produced several days above 38°C. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise strength of the Iberian high creates the near-even split between 36°C (41.5%) and 37°C (40.0%), with lower probabilities for 35°C or 38°C reflecting uncertainty in whether modest Atlantic moisture or slight wind shifts will cap the peak. Historical June climatology for Retiro station shows typical maxima near 31–32°C, so current conditions represent a clear positive anomaly driven by the amplified ridge. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model runs and AEMET updates most heavily ahead of the final 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$91,938結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Jun 28, 2026, 1:02 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm advection from subtropical air masses underpin the tight clustering around 36–37°C for Madrid’s June 30 maximum.** Official guidance from AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate continued clear skies and strong daytime insolation through the end of the month, following an intense late-June heatwave that produced several days above 38°C. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise strength of the Iberian high creates the near-even split between 36°C (41.5%) and 37°C (40.0%), with lower probabilities for 35°C or 38°C reflecting uncertainty in whether modest Atlantic moisture or slight wind shifts will cap the peak. Historical June climatology for Retiro station shows typical maxima near 31–32°C, so current conditions represent a clear positive anomaly driven by the amplified ridge. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model runs and AEMET updates most heavily ahead of the final 24-hour verification window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions