Recent forecast models from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid’s peak temperature on August 3 will likely reach 33°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and warm advection from North Africa under clear skies typical of early August. These conditions favor daytime maxima near the long-term climatological average of 32–33°C, with limited cloud cover or Atlantic moisture to moderate heating. Ensemble guidance shows low spread, keeping 34°C or higher less probable unless a stronger Saharan plume develops, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent unexpected frontal passage. Trader consensus aligns with this consensus, as recent model runs have shown minimal shifts since late July.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月3日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月3日馬德裏氣溫最高？
33°C 48%
32°C 23%
34°C 22%
35°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
3%
32°C
23%
33°C
48%
34°C
22%
35°C
8%
36°C
2%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 48%
32°C 23%
34°C 22%
35°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
29°C or below
$22 交易量
<1%
30°C
$25 交易量
2%
31°C
$201 交易量
3%
32°C
$204 交易量
23%
33°C
$234 交易量
48%
34°C
$193 交易量
22%
35°C
$128 交易量
8%
36°C
$96 交易量
2%
37°C
$20 交易量
2%
38°C
$111 交易量
<1%
39°C or higher
$111 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid’s peak temperature on August 3 will likely reach 33°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and warm advection from North Africa under clear skies typical of early August. These conditions favor daytime maxima near the long-term climatological average of 32–33°C, with limited cloud cover or Atlantic moisture to moderate heating. Ensemble guidance shows low spread, keeping 34°C or higher less probable unless a stronger Saharan plume develops, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent unexpected frontal passage. Trader consensus aligns with this consensus, as recent model runs have shown minimal shifts since late July.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$1,345結束日期
2026-08-03市場開放時間
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid’s peak temperature on August 3 will likely reach 33°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and warm advection from North Africa under clear skies typical of early August. These conditions favor daytime maxima near the long-term climatological average of 32–33°C, with limited cloud cover or Atlantic moisture to moderate heating. Ensemble guidance shows low spread, keeping 34°C or higher less probable unless a stronger Saharan plume develops, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent unexpected frontal passage. Trader consensus aligns with this consensus, as recent model runs have shown minimal shifts since late July.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,345結束日期
2026-08-03市場開放時間
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent forecast models from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid’s peak temperature on August 3 will likely reach 33°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and warm advection from North Africa under clear skies typical of early August. These conditions favor daytime maxima near the long-term climatological average of 32–33°C, with limited cloud cover or Atlantic moisture to moderate heating. Ensemble guidance shows low spread, keeping 34°C or higher less probable unless a stronger Saharan plume develops, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent unexpected frontal passage. Trader consensus aligns with this consensus, as recent model runs have shown minimal shifts since late July.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions