Recent forecast guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency points to a moderating influence from a passing frontal system and increased cloud cover, keeping Tokyo's maximum temperature on August 3 centered near 26–28 °C rather than the seasonal 31 °C average. High humidity and urban heat-island effects still apply, but model consensus favors limited insolation and possible brief showers that cap daytime peaks. Trader positioning around 27 °C (38 %) reflects this near-term data shift, with 26 °C and 28 °C as close alternatives; longer-range outlooks had initially supported higher outcomes before the latest runs. Updated model outputs and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any probability adjustments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月3日東京氣溫最高？
8月3日東京氣溫最高？
27°C 38%
26°C 25%
28°C 25%
29°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
25%
27°C
38%
28°C
25%
29°C
8%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
27°C 38%
26°C 25%
28°C 25%
29°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
22°C or below
$234 交易量
<1%
23°C
$259 交易量
<1%
24°C
$699 交易量
2%
25°C
$77 交易量
6%
26°C
$324 交易量
25%
27°C
$672 交易量
38%
28°C
$71 交易量
25%
29°C
$73 交易量
8%
30°C
$81 交易量
3%
31°C
$211 交易量
1%
32°C or higher
$139 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency points to a moderating influence from a passing frontal system and increased cloud cover, keeping Tokyo's maximum temperature on August 3 centered near 26–28 °C rather than the seasonal 31 °C average. High humidity and urban heat-island effects still apply, but model consensus favors limited insolation and possible brief showers that cap daytime peaks. Trader positioning around 27 °C (38 %) reflects this near-term data shift, with 26 °C and 28 °C as close alternatives; longer-range outlooks had initially supported higher outcomes before the latest runs. Updated model outputs and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any probability adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$2,840結束日期
2026-08-03市場開放時間
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency points to a moderating influence from a passing frontal system and increased cloud cover, keeping Tokyo's maximum temperature on August 3 centered near 26–28 °C rather than the seasonal 31 °C average. High humidity and urban heat-island effects still apply, but model consensus favors limited insolation and possible brief showers that cap daytime peaks. Trader positioning around 27 °C (38 %) reflects this near-term data shift, with 26 °C and 28 °C as close alternatives; longer-range outlooks had initially supported higher outcomes before the latest runs. Updated model outputs and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any probability adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,840結束日期
2026-08-03市場開放時間
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent forecast guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency points to a moderating influence from a passing frontal system and increased cloud cover, keeping Tokyo's maximum temperature on August 3 centered near 26–28 °C rather than the seasonal 31 °C average. High humidity and urban heat-island effects still apply, but model consensus favors limited insolation and possible brief showers that cap daytime peaks. Trader positioning around 27 °C (38 %) reflects this near-term data shift, with 26 °C and 28 °C as close alternatives; longer-range outlooks had initially supported higher outcomes before the latest runs. Updated model outputs and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any probability adjustments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions