Recent model consensus from European and Spanish meteorological agencies points to a persistent hot air mass over central Spain, positioning 36°C and 37°C as the dominant outcomes for Madrid’s August 2 maximum. These probabilities reflect current ensemble guidance showing daytime highs in the mid-30s Celsius under mostly clear skies and light winds, consistent with the ongoing regional heatwave driven by subtropical ridging. Climatological baselines for early August average near 33°C, so the elevated outlook stems from limited cooling expected before the date. Minor model spread around potential boundary-layer mixing or slight advection shifts keeps 35°C and 38°C as secondary possibilities, while extremes below 34°C or above 39°C remain low-probability given stable synoptic patterns. Final AEMET and ECMWF updates on August 1 will refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月2日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月2日馬德裏氣溫最高？
36°C 46%
37°C 38%
35°C 11%
38°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-02
32°C或以下
1%
33°C
2%
34°C
3%
35°C
11%
36°C
46%
37°C
38%
38°C
10%
39°C
2%
40°C
2%
41°C
<1%
42°C或以上
<1%
36°C 46%
37°C 38%
35°C 11%
38°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-02
32°C或以下
$16 交易量
1%
33°C
$20 交易量
2%
34°C
$30 交易量
3%
35°C
$171 交易量
11%
36°C
$333 交易量
46%
37°C
$124 交易量
38%
38°C
$64 交易量
10%
39°C
$71 交易量
2%
40°C
$10 交易量
2%
41°C
$6 交易量
<1%
42°C或以上
$6 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from European and Spanish meteorological agencies points to a persistent hot air mass over central Spain, positioning 36°C and 37°C as the dominant outcomes for Madrid’s August 2 maximum. These probabilities reflect current ensemble guidance showing daytime highs in the mid-30s Celsius under mostly clear skies and light winds, consistent with the ongoing regional heatwave driven by subtropical ridging. Climatological baselines for early August average near 33°C, so the elevated outlook stems from limited cooling expected before the date. Minor model spread around potential boundary-layer mixing or slight advection shifts keeps 35°C and 38°C as secondary possibilities, while extremes below 34°C or above 39°C remain low-probability given stable synoptic patterns. Final AEMET and ECMWF updates on August 1 will refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$851結束日期
2026-08-02市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from European and Spanish meteorological agencies points to a persistent hot air mass over central Spain, positioning 36°C and 37°C as the dominant outcomes for Madrid’s August 2 maximum. These probabilities reflect current ensemble guidance showing daytime highs in the mid-30s Celsius under mostly clear skies and light winds, consistent with the ongoing regional heatwave driven by subtropical ridging. Climatological baselines for early August average near 33°C, so the elevated outlook stems from limited cooling expected before the date. Minor model spread around potential boundary-layer mixing or slight advection shifts keeps 35°C and 38°C as secondary possibilities, while extremes below 34°C or above 39°C remain low-probability given stable synoptic patterns. Final AEMET and ECMWF updates on August 1 will refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$851結束日期
2026-08-02市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETRecent model consensus from European and Spanish meteorological agencies points to a persistent hot air mass over central Spain, positioning 36°C and 37°C as the dominant outcomes for Madrid’s August 2 maximum. These probabilities reflect current ensemble guidance showing daytime highs in the mid-30s Celsius under mostly clear skies and light winds, consistent with the ongoing regional heatwave driven by subtropical ridging. Climatological baselines for early August average near 33°C, so the elevated outlook stems from limited cooling expected before the date. Minor model spread around potential boundary-layer mixing or slight advection shifts keeps 35°C and 38°C as secondary possibilities, while extremes below 34°C or above 39°C remain low-probability given stable synoptic patterns. Final AEMET and ECMWF updates on August 1 will refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions