PAGASA's latest forecast projects a 34°C high for Metro Manila on April 16 under a ridge of high pressure extending clear skies and easterly winds that enhance solar insolation during the dry hot season, yet market-implied odds remain tightly clustered around 32–38°C at roughly equal 26% probabilities, underscoring scientific uncertainty from varying forecast models and local factors. Partly cloudy conditions with 0–20% rain chance could trigger isolated thunderstorms, potentially limiting peak heating, while Manila's urban heat island effect often amplifies observed temperatures beyond rural baselines. Historical mid-April highs average 33–34°C, with extremes to 38°C during similar high-pressure setups; traders await hourly observations from PAGASA's Science Garden station for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on April 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on April 16?
31°C 30%
34°C 29%
35°C 29%
33°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Apr 16, 2026
29°C or below
2%
30°C
1%
31°C
30%
32°C
25%
33°C
27%
34°C
29%
35°C
29%
36°C
26%
37°C
26%
38°C
26%
39°C or higher
11%
31°C 30%
34°C 29%
35°C 29%
33°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Apr 16, 2026
29°C or below
$189 Vol.
2%
30°C
$187 Vol.
1%
31°C
$187 Vol.
30%
32°C
$7 Vol.
25%
33°C
$0 Vol.
27%
34°C
$0 Vol.
29%
35°C
$0 Vol.
29%
36°C
$0 Vol.
26%
37°C
$0 Vol.
26%
38°C
$0 Vol.
26%
39°C or higher
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest forecast projects a 34°C high for Metro Manila on April 16 under a ridge of high pressure extending clear skies and easterly winds that enhance solar insolation during the dry hot season, yet market-implied odds remain tightly clustered around 32–38°C at roughly equal 26% probabilities, underscoring scientific uncertainty from varying forecast models and local factors. Partly cloudy conditions with 0–20% rain chance could trigger isolated thunderstorms, potentially limiting peak heating, while Manila's urban heat island effect often amplifies observed temperatures beyond rural baselines. Historical mid-April highs average 33–34°C, with extremes to 38°C during similar high-pressure setups; traders await hourly observations from PAGASA's Science Garden station for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Volume
$571End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest forecast projects a 34°C high for Metro Manila on April 16 under a ridge of high pressure extending clear skies and easterly winds that enhance solar insolation during the dry hot season, yet market-implied odds remain tightly clustered around 32–38°C at roughly equal 26% probabilities, underscoring scientific uncertainty from varying forecast models and local factors. Partly cloudy conditions with 0–20% rain chance could trigger isolated thunderstorms, potentially limiting peak heating, while Manila's urban heat island effect often amplifies observed temperatures beyond rural baselines. Historical mid-April highs average 33–34°C, with extremes to 38°C during similar high-pressure setups; traders await hourly observations from PAGASA's Science Garden station for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$571End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA's latest forecast projects a 34°C high for Metro Manila on April 16 under a ridge of high pressure extending clear skies and easterly winds that enhance solar insolation during the dry hot season, yet market-implied odds remain tightly clustered around 32–38°C at roughly equal 26% probabilities, underscoring scientific uncertainty from varying forecast models and local factors. Partly cloudy conditions with 0–20% rain chance could trigger isolated thunderstorms, potentially limiting peak heating, while Manila's urban heat island effect often amplifies observed temperatures beyond rural baselines. Historical mid-April highs average 33–34°C, with extremes to 38°C during similar high-pressure setups; traders await hourly observations from PAGASA's Science Garden station for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions