Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Manila on May 2?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 2?
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$41,435 거래량
$41,435 거래량
2026.05.02
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$41,435 거래량
$41,435 거래량
2026.05.02
30°C or below
$4,720 거래량
No
31°C
$2,783 거래량
No
32°C
$2,867 거래량
No
33°C
$5,474 거래량
No
34°C
$4,839 거래량
No
35°C
$4,936 거래량
No
36°C
$3,727 거래량
Yes
37°C
$3,790 거래량
No
38°C
$2,577 거래량
No
39°C
$1,909 거래량
No
40°C or higher
$3,813 거래량
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ET
거래량
$41,435종료일
2026.05.02마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$41,435종료일
2026.05.02마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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