Traders favor a 28°C high for Mexico City on July 24 at 36.5% implied probability, followed closely by 29°C and 27°C, reflecting model consensus around 26–28°C amid the summer rainy season. High-elevation conditions at roughly 2,240 meters and typical July climatology keep daytime maxima moderate, with morning insolation driving peaks before afternoon convection and showers develop. Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and local models show limited variability, with light precipitation expected to cap extremes rather than allow spikes above 29°C or drops below 27°C. Key differentiating factors include exact cloud timing, humidity levels, and steering patterns that influence how much solar heating occurs before storms initiate, creating the narrow spread among leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on July 24?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24?
27°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$68,963 Vol.
$68,963 Vol.
Jul 24, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$68,963 Vol.
$68,963 Vol.
Jul 24, 2026
24°C or below
$1,632 Vol.
No
25°C
$24,060 Vol.
No
26°C
$17,098 Vol.
No
27°C
$8,368 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$4,959 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,624 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,971 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,109 Vol.
No
32°C
$641 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,037 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$2,464 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders favor a 28°C high for Mexico City on July 24 at 36.5% implied probability, followed closely by 29°C and 27°C, reflecting model consensus around 26–28°C amid the summer rainy season. High-elevation conditions at roughly 2,240 meters and typical July climatology keep daytime maxima moderate, with morning insolation driving peaks before afternoon convection and showers develop. Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and local models show limited variability, with light precipitation expected to cap extremes rather than allow spikes above 29°C or drops below 27°C. Key differentiating factors include exact cloud timing, humidity levels, and steering patterns that influence how much solar heating occurs before storms initiate, creating the narrow spread among leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 22, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$68,963End Date
Jul 24, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders favor a 28°C high for Mexico City on July 24 at 36.5% implied probability, followed closely by 29°C and 27°C, reflecting model consensus around 26–28°C amid the summer rainy season. High-elevation conditions at roughly 2,240 meters and typical July climatology keep daytime maxima moderate, with morning insolation driving peaks before afternoon convection and showers develop. Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and local models show limited variability, with light precipitation expected to cap extremes rather than allow spikes above 29°C or drops below 27°C. Key differentiating factors include exact cloud timing, humidity levels, and steering patterns that influence how much solar heating occurs before storms initiate, creating the narrow spread among leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$68,963End Date
Jul 24, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders favor a 28°C high for Mexico City on July 24 at 36.5% implied probability, followed closely by 29°C and 27°C, reflecting model consensus around 26–28°C amid the summer rainy season. High-elevation conditions at roughly 2,240 meters and typical July climatology keep daytime maxima moderate, with morning insolation driving peaks before afternoon convection and showers develop. Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and local models show limited variability, with light precipitation expected to cap extremes rather than allow spikes above 29°C or drops below 27°C. Key differentiating factors include exact cloud timing, humidity levels, and steering patterns that influence how much solar heating occurs before storms initiate, creating the narrow spread among leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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