The market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability on 21°C reflects trader confidence in official INMET observations confirming that exact daily maximum for São Paulo on June 12. A cold frontal passage moving through southern Brazil on June 11–12 suppressed temperatures below seasonal averages, with model consensus from CPTEC and global ensembles forecasting a high near 21°C amid moderate southerly flow and limited insolation. This outcome aligns with climatological patterns for mid-June, when frontal systems often cap highs in the low-20s Celsius range. Only revised station data or measurement discrepancies could alter resolution, scenarios traders currently price as negligible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 12?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 12?
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$61,748 Vol.
$61,748 Vol.
Jun 12, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$61,748 Vol.
$61,748 Vol.
Jun 12, 2026
16°C or below
$1,333 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,892 Vol.
No
18°C
$3,892 Vol.
No
19°C
$6,223 Vol.
No
20°C
$28,133 Vol.
No
21°C
$8,313 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$3,586 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,645 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,005 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,211 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$513 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability on 21°C reflects trader confidence in official INMET observations confirming that exact daily maximum for São Paulo on June 12. A cold frontal passage moving through southern Brazil on June 11–12 suppressed temperatures below seasonal averages, with model consensus from CPTEC and global ensembles forecasting a high near 21°C amid moderate southerly flow and limited insolation. This outcome aligns with climatological patterns for mid-June, when frontal systems often cap highs in the low-20s Celsius range. Only revised station data or measurement discrepancies could alter resolution, scenarios traders currently price as negligible.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$61,748End Date
Jun 12, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability on 21°C reflects trader confidence in official INMET observations confirming that exact daily maximum for São Paulo on June 12. A cold frontal passage moving through southern Brazil on June 11–12 suppressed temperatures below seasonal averages, with model consensus from CPTEC and global ensembles forecasting a high near 21°C amid moderate southerly flow and limited insolation. This outcome aligns with climatological patterns for mid-June, when frontal systems often cap highs in the low-20s Celsius range. Only revised station data or measurement discrepancies could alter resolution, scenarios traders currently price as negligible.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$61,748End Date
Jun 12, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability on 21°C reflects trader confidence in official INMET observations confirming that exact daily maximum for São Paulo on June 12. A cold frontal passage moving through southern Brazil on June 11–12 suppressed temperatures below seasonal averages, with model consensus from CPTEC and global ensembles forecasting a high near 21°C amid moderate southerly flow and limited insolation. This outcome aligns with climatological patterns for mid-June, when frontal systems often cap highs in the low-20s Celsius range. Only revised station data or measurement discrepancies could alter resolution, scenarios traders currently price as negligible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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