Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 20–22°C for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 19, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime peaks near 21°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds typical of mid-spring in the region's subtropical monsoon climate. This aligns with historical mid-April averages of 19–20°C at the Xujiahui Observatory, where daily highs vary by 3–4°C due to frontal system timing, cloud cover modulating solar insolation, and urban heat effects. Key differentiators include potential for increased mixing heights boosting 22°C or shallow inversions capping at 20°C; new China Meteorological Administration updates and model refreshes expected within 24 hours could refine these market-implied odds amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 19?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 19?
21°C 28%
20°C 25%
22°C 22%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 19, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
7%
20°C
25%
21°C
28%
22°C
22%
23°C
13%
24°C
4%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
1%
21°C 28%
20°C 25%
22°C 22%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 19, 2026
17°C or below
$562 Vol.
1%
18°C
$959 Vol.
3%
19°C
$1,392 Vol.
7%
20°C
$238 Vol.
25%
21°C
$233 Vol.
28%
22°C
$204 Vol.
22%
23°C
$220 Vol.
13%
24°C
$343 Vol.
4%
25°C
$310 Vol.
1%
26°C
$301 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$423 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 20–22°C for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 19, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime peaks near 21°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds typical of mid-spring in the region's subtropical monsoon climate. This aligns with historical mid-April averages of 19–20°C at the Xujiahui Observatory, where daily highs vary by 3–4°C due to frontal system timing, cloud cover modulating solar insolation, and urban heat effects. Key differentiators include potential for increased mixing heights boosting 22°C or shallow inversions capping at 20°C; new China Meteorological Administration updates and model refreshes expected within 24 hours could refine these market-implied odds amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$5,180End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 20–22°C for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 19, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime peaks near 21°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds typical of mid-spring in the region's subtropical monsoon climate. This aligns with historical mid-April averages of 19–20°C at the Xujiahui Observatory, where daily highs vary by 3–4°C due to frontal system timing, cloud cover modulating solar insolation, and urban heat effects. Key differentiators include potential for increased mixing heights boosting 22°C or shallow inversions capping at 20°C; new China Meteorological Administration updates and model refreshes expected within 24 hours could refine these market-implied odds amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,180End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 20–22°C for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 19, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime peaks near 21°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds typical of mid-spring in the region's subtropical monsoon climate. This aligns with historical mid-April averages of 19–20°C at the Xujiahui Observatory, where daily highs vary by 3–4°C due to frontal system timing, cloud cover modulating solar insolation, and urban heat effects. Key differentiators include potential for increased mixing heights boosting 22°C or shallow inversions capping at 20°C; new China Meteorological Administration updates and model refreshes expected within 24 hours could refine these market-implied odds amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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