Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C as Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 3, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport weather station recording a midday peak of 28°C around 14:00 local time. Persistent overcast skies, high humidity, and scattered thunderstorms—per Hong Kong Observatory and AccuWeather reports—have suppressed solar heating, keeping subsequent hourly readings below 26°C amid minimal insolation. Typical early May highs average 28–29°C, but today's cloudy conditions align with forecast model consensus for subdued warming. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing and strong late-afternoon sunshine before sunset around 18:50, though current trends and evening cooling make this improbable; final METAR observations will confirm resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 3?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 3?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$51,832 交易量
$51,832 交易量
2026-05-03
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$51,832 交易量
$51,832 交易量
2026-05-03
23°C or below
$2,434 交易量
No
24°C
$1,890 交易量
No
25°C
$4,089 交易量
No
26°C
$6,076 交易量
No
27°C
$4,341 交易量
No
28°C
$9,179 交易量
Yes
29°C
$7,457 交易量
No
30°C
$5,196 交易量
No
31°C
$4,231 交易量
No
32°C
$3,350 交易量
No
33°C or higher
$3,588 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C as Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 3, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport weather station recording a midday peak of 28°C around 14:00 local time. Persistent overcast skies, high humidity, and scattered thunderstorms—per Hong Kong Observatory and AccuWeather reports—have suppressed solar heating, keeping subsequent hourly readings below 26°C amid minimal insolation. Typical early May highs average 28–29°C, but today's cloudy conditions align with forecast model consensus for subdued warming. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing and strong late-afternoon sunshine before sunset around 18:50, though current trends and evening cooling make this improbable; final METAR observations will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 1, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
交易量
$51,832结束日期
2026-05-03市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 12:23 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C as Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 3, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport weather station recording a midday peak of 28°C around 14:00 local time. Persistent overcast skies, high humidity, and scattered thunderstorms—per Hong Kong Observatory and AccuWeather reports—have suppressed solar heating, keeping subsequent hourly readings below 26°C amid minimal insolation. Typical early May highs average 28–29°C, but today's cloudy conditions align with forecast model consensus for subdued warming. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing and strong late-afternoon sunshine before sunset around 18:50, though current trends and evening cooling make this improbable; final METAR observations will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$51,832结束日期
2026-05-03市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 12:23 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C as Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 3, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport weather station recording a midday peak of 28°C around 14:00 local time. Persistent overcast skies, high humidity, and scattered thunderstorms—per Hong Kong Observatory and AccuWeather reports—have suppressed solar heating, keeping subsequent hourly readings below 26°C amid minimal insolation. Typical early May highs average 28–29°C, but today's cloudy conditions align with forecast model consensus for subdued warming. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing and strong late-afternoon sunshine before sunset around 18:50, though current trends and evening cooling make this improbable; final METAR observations will confirm resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题