**Trader consensus on a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the virus’s established transmission biology and the rapid containment of the only notable 2026 event.** Andes virus, the sole strain with documented limited person-to-person spread, requires close and prolonged contact rather than efficient respiratory transmission, yielding an estimated R0 near 1.2. The MV Hondius cruise-ship cluster (roughly 12–13 cases and three deaths) stemmed from a single zoonotic spillover and was contained through quarantine and contact tracing by June 2026, with U.S. and international monitoring ending without secondary community cases. Authoritative sources including the WHO and CDC have consistently assessed population-level risk as very low, consistent with historical patterns of sporadic, rodent-borne outbreaks rather than sustained human chains. While mutation enabling broader transmission remains theoretically possible, current genomic and epidemiological data show no such evolution, and the remaining months of 2026 offer little time for an undetected shift to pandemic scale.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年汉坦病毒大流行？
2026年汉坦病毒大流行？
是
3% 概率
$18,198,279 交易量
$18,198,279 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 概率
$18,198,279 交易量
$18,198,279 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the virus’s established transmission biology and the rapid containment of the only notable 2026 event.** Andes virus, the sole strain with documented limited person-to-person spread, requires close and prolonged contact rather than efficient respiratory transmission, yielding an estimated R0 near 1.2. The MV Hondius cruise-ship cluster (roughly 12–13 cases and three deaths) stemmed from a single zoonotic spillover and was contained through quarantine and contact tracing by June 2026, with U.S. and international monitoring ending without secondary community cases. Authoritative sources including the WHO and CDC have consistently assessed population-level risk as very low, consistent with historical patterns of sporadic, rodent-borne outbreaks rather than sustained human chains. While mutation enabling broader transmission remains theoretically possible, current genomic and epidemiological data show no such evolution, and the remaining months of 2026 offer little time for an undetected shift to pandemic scale.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
交易量
$18,198,279结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the virus’s established transmission biology and the rapid containment of the only notable 2026 event.** Andes virus, the sole strain with documented limited person-to-person spread, requires close and prolonged contact rather than efficient respiratory transmission, yielding an estimated R0 near 1.2. The MV Hondius cruise-ship cluster (roughly 12–13 cases and three deaths) stemmed from a single zoonotic spillover and was contained through quarantine and contact tracing by June 2026, with U.S. and international monitoring ending without secondary community cases. Authoritative sources including the WHO and CDC have consistently assessed population-level risk as very low, consistent with historical patterns of sporadic, rodent-borne outbreaks rather than sustained human chains. While mutation enabling broader transmission remains theoretically possible, current genomic and epidemiological data show no such evolution, and the remaining months of 2026 offer little time for an undetected shift to pandemic scale.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$18,198,279结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET**Trader consensus on a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the virus’s established transmission biology and the rapid containment of the only notable 2026 event.** Andes virus, the sole strain with documented limited person-to-person spread, requires close and prolonged contact rather than efficient respiratory transmission, yielding an estimated R0 near 1.2. The MV Hondius cruise-ship cluster (roughly 12–13 cases and three deaths) stemmed from a single zoonotic spillover and was contained through quarantine and contact tracing by June 2026, with U.S. and international monitoring ending without secondary community cases. Authoritative sources including the WHO and CDC have consistently assessed population-level risk as very low, consistent with historical patterns of sporadic, rodent-borne outbreaks rather than sustained human chains. While mutation enabling broader transmission remains theoretically possible, current genomic and epidemiological data show no such evolution, and the remaining months of 2026 offer little time for an undetected shift to pandemic scale.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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