The current 96.3% market-implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects a large but geographically contained Bundibugyo virus outbreak primarily in eastern DRC, with over 5,000 confirmed cases and 2,300 deaths across six provinces as of mid-August 2026. Limited cross-border spread to Uganda (20 cases, quickly contained) and isolated detections elsewhere, combined with Ebola’s requirement for direct bodily fluid contact rather than airborne transmission, have prevented sustained global chains. WHO has declared a PHEIC and notes high regional risk plus faster growth than prior DRC outbreaks, yet global importation risk remains low per CDC and ECDC assessments. Ongoing contact tracing, isolation efforts, and experimental vaccine trials further support trader consensus that thresholds for a true pandemic will not be met by year-end absent major unforeseen escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% 概率
$699,154 交易量
$699,154 交易量
2026-12-30
4% 概率
$699,154 交易量
$699,154 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The current 96.3% market-implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects a large but geographically contained Bundibugyo virus outbreak primarily in eastern DRC, with over 5,000 confirmed cases and 2,300 deaths across six provinces as of mid-August 2026. Limited cross-border spread to Uganda (20 cases, quickly contained) and isolated detections elsewhere, combined with Ebola’s requirement for direct bodily fluid contact rather than airborne transmission, have prevented sustained global chains. WHO has declared a PHEIC and notes high regional risk plus faster growth than prior DRC outbreaks, yet global importation risk remains low per CDC and ECDC assessments. Ongoing contact tracing, isolation efforts, and experimental vaccine trials further support trader consensus that thresholds for a true pandemic will not be met by year-end absent major unforeseen escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
交易量
$699,154结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The current 96.3% market-implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects a large but geographically contained Bundibugyo virus outbreak primarily in eastern DRC, with over 5,000 confirmed cases and 2,300 deaths across six provinces as of mid-August 2026. Limited cross-border spread to Uganda (20 cases, quickly contained) and isolated detections elsewhere, combined with Ebola’s requirement for direct bodily fluid contact rather than airborne transmission, have prevented sustained global chains. WHO has declared a PHEIC and notes high regional risk plus faster growth than prior DRC outbreaks, yet global importation risk remains low per CDC and ECDC assessments. Ongoing contact tracing, isolation efforts, and experimental vaccine trials further support trader consensus that thresholds for a true pandemic will not be met by year-end absent major unforeseen escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$699,154结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The current 96.3% market-implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects a large but geographically contained Bundibugyo virus outbreak primarily in eastern DRC, with over 5,000 confirmed cases and 2,300 deaths across six provinces as of mid-August 2026. Limited cross-border spread to Uganda (20 cases, quickly contained) and isolated detections elsewhere, combined with Ebola’s requirement for direct bodily fluid contact rather than airborne transmission, have prevented sustained global chains. WHO has declared a PHEIC and notes high regional risk plus faster growth than prior DRC outbreaks, yet global importation risk remains low per CDC and ECDC assessments. Ongoing contact tracing, isolation efforts, and experimental vaccine trials further support trader consensus that thresholds for a true pandemic will not be met by year-end absent major unforeseen escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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