Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a typical late-summer pattern dominated by the Pacific subtropical high, supporting daytime maxima near 31–32 °C in central Tokyo on 21 August, tempered by possible convective cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. High humidity (70–85 %) and the urban heat-island effect add several tenths of a degree to observed readings, yet any increase in low-level moisture or weak frontal passage could cap the peak at 30 °C. With the resolution window only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 00–12 UTC runs and satellite trends that show modest spread between 30–32 °C solutions; further model convergence or updated guidance on afternoon convection will likely narrow the distribution before the market settles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月21日东京气温最高？
8月21日东京气温最高？
31°C 32%
30°C 26%
32°C 14%
29°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
8%
30°C
26%
31°C
32%
32°C
14%
33°C
8%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
4%
31°C 32%
30°C 26%
32°C 14%
29°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
25°C or below
$2,145 交易量
<1%
26°C
$180 交易量
1%
27°C
$108 交易量
2%
28°C
$23 交易量
3%
29°C
$66 交易量
8%
30°C
$51 交易量
26%
31°C
$105 交易量
32%
32°C
$18 交易量
14%
33°C
$27 交易量
8%
34°C
$94 交易量
4%
35°C or higher
$5 交易量
4%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a typical late-summer pattern dominated by the Pacific subtropical high, supporting daytime maxima near 31–32 °C in central Tokyo on 21 August, tempered by possible convective cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. High humidity (70–85 %) and the urban heat-island effect add several tenths of a degree to observed readings, yet any increase in low-level moisture or weak frontal passage could cap the peak at 30 °C. With the resolution window only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 00–12 UTC runs and satellite trends that show modest spread between 30–32 °C solutions; further model convergence or updated guidance on afternoon convection will likely narrow the distribution before the market settles.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$2,824结束日期
2026-08-21市场开放时间
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a typical late-summer pattern dominated by the Pacific subtropical high, supporting daytime maxima near 31–32 °C in central Tokyo on 21 August, tempered by possible convective cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. High humidity (70–85 %) and the urban heat-island effect add several tenths of a degree to observed readings, yet any increase in low-level moisture or weak frontal passage could cap the peak at 30 °C. With the resolution window only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 00–12 UTC runs and satellite trends that show modest spread between 30–32 °C solutions; further model convergence or updated guidance on afternoon convection will likely narrow the distribution before the market settles.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,824结束日期
2026-08-21市场开放时间
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a typical late-summer pattern dominated by the Pacific subtropical high, supporting daytime maxima near 31–32 °C in central Tokyo on 21 August, tempered by possible convective cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. High humidity (70–85 %) and the urban heat-island effect add several tenths of a degree to observed readings, yet any increase in low-level moisture or weak frontal passage could cap the peak at 30 °C. With the resolution window only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 00–12 UTC runs and satellite trends that show modest spread between 30–32 °C solutions; further model convergence or updated guidance on afternoon convection will likely narrow the distribution before the market settles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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