Recent short-term forecasts from AEMET and international models show Madrid cooling after mid-week highs of 35–38°C, with an expected maximum of 30–31°C on August 21 under mostly clear skies and moderate winds. This places the 31°C outcome at the center of trader consensus (46.5% implied probability), followed by 32°C and 30°C, as ensemble guidance indicates limited variability around these values. Typical August climatology for central Spain supports highs near 31–32°C, and the absence of persistent heat advection or strong subsidence reinforces the tight clustering of probabilities. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact peak before market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月21日马德里气温最高？
8月21日马德里气温最高？
31°C 47%
32°C 30%
30°C 16%
33°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
27°C or below
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
16%
31°C
47%
32°C
30%
33°C
5%
34°C
<1%
35°C
4%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
1%
31°C 47%
32°C 30%
30°C 16%
33°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
27°C or below
$81 交易量
1%
28°C
$10 交易量
2%
29°C
$32 交易量
4%
30°C
$89 交易量
16%
31°C
$126 交易量
47%
32°C
$53 交易量
30%
33°C
$32 交易量
5%
34°C
$27 交易量
<1%
35°C
$10 交易量
4%
36°C
$85 交易量
1%
37°C or higher
$92 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from AEMET and international models show Madrid cooling after mid-week highs of 35–38°C, with an expected maximum of 30–31°C on August 21 under mostly clear skies and moderate winds. This places the 31°C outcome at the center of trader consensus (46.5% implied probability), followed by 32°C and 30°C, as ensemble guidance indicates limited variability around these values. Typical August climatology for central Spain supports highs near 31–32°C, and the absence of persistent heat advection or strong subsidence reinforces the tight clustering of probabilities. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact peak before market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$484结束日期
2026-08-21市场开放时间
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from AEMET and international models show Madrid cooling after mid-week highs of 35–38°C, with an expected maximum of 30–31°C on August 21 under mostly clear skies and moderate winds. This places the 31°C outcome at the center of trader consensus (46.5% implied probability), followed by 32°C and 30°C, as ensemble guidance indicates limited variability around these values. Typical August climatology for central Spain supports highs near 31–32°C, and the absence of persistent heat advection or strong subsidence reinforces the tight clustering of probabilities. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact peak before market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$484结束日期
2026-08-21市场开放时间
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent short-term forecasts from AEMET and international models show Madrid cooling after mid-week highs of 35–38°C, with an expected maximum of 30–31°C on August 21 under mostly clear skies and moderate winds. This places the 31°C outcome at the center of trader consensus (46.5% implied probability), followed by 32°C and 30°C, as ensemble guidance indicates limited variability around these values. Typical August climatology for central Spain supports highs near 31–32°C, and the absence of persistent heat advection or strong subsidence reinforces the tight clustering of probabilities. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact peak before market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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