Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, indicate a high of approximately 32°C for Warsaw on July 1 under a ridge of high pressure promoting warm advection and clear skies, consistent with the market's heaviest weighting on 30–32°C outcomes. Recent model runs show limited spread around this value, with minimal precipitation expected to suppress daytime maxima, though minor shifts in timing or cloud cover could adjust results by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C highlight the anomalous warmth, while official monitoring from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will provide final verification against resolution thresholds. Traders are incorporating the proximity to the event and typical short-range forecast skill, leaving room for late adjustments from updated runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 1?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 1?
33°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$102,340 Vol.
$102,340 Vol.
Jul 1, 2026
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$102,340 Vol.
$102,340 Vol.
Jul 1, 2026
30°C or below
$16,705 Vol.
No
31°C
$13,914 Vol.
No
32°C
$17,608 Vol.
No
33°C
$15,610 Vol.
Yes
34°C
$14,595 Vol.
No
35°C
$10,749 Vol.
No
36°C
$5,579 Vol.
No
37°C
$3,571 Vol.
No
38°C
$2,574 Vol.
No
39°C
$668 Vol.
No
40°C or higher
$768 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, indicate a high of approximately 32°C for Warsaw on July 1 under a ridge of high pressure promoting warm advection and clear skies, consistent with the market's heaviest weighting on 30–32°C outcomes. Recent model runs show limited spread around this value, with minimal precipitation expected to suppress daytime maxima, though minor shifts in timing or cloud cover could adjust results by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C highlight the anomalous warmth, while official monitoring from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will provide final verification against resolution thresholds. Traders are incorporating the proximity to the event and typical short-range forecast skill, leaving room for late adjustments from updated runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$102,340End Date
Jul 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, indicate a high of approximately 32°C for Warsaw on July 1 under a ridge of high pressure promoting warm advection and clear skies, consistent with the market's heaviest weighting on 30–32°C outcomes. Recent model runs show limited spread around this value, with minimal precipitation expected to suppress daytime maxima, though minor shifts in timing or cloud cover could adjust results by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C highlight the anomalous warmth, while official monitoring from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will provide final verification against resolution thresholds. Traders are incorporating the proximity to the event and typical short-range forecast skill, leaving room for late adjustments from updated runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$102,340End Date
Jul 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, indicate a high of approximately 32°C for Warsaw on July 1 under a ridge of high pressure promoting warm advection and clear skies, consistent with the market's heaviest weighting on 30–32°C outcomes. Recent model runs show limited spread around this value, with minimal precipitation expected to suppress daytime maxima, though minor shifts in timing or cloud cover could adjust results by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C highlight the anomalous warmth, while official monitoring from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will provide final verification against resolution thresholds. Traders are incorporating the proximity to the event and typical short-range forecast skill, leaving room for late adjustments from updated runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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