Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and local IMGW models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will limit Warsaw’s July 18 maximum to the 24–26 °C range, with thundery showers possible during peak heating hours that reduce insolation and cap afternoon temperatures. This follows a late-June heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5 °C but has since yielded to cooler-than-average July conditions across central Europe. Traders have concentrated probability on 25–26 °C outcomes because model runs show modest uncertainty around cloud cover and convective timing, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the post-heatwave pattern and typical July climatology of 24–25 °C. Updated model guidance and IMGW morning observations on July 17 will provide the next key data points before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 18?
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$57,770 Vol.
$57,770 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$57,770 Vol.
$57,770 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
22°C or below
$1,020 Vol.
No
23°C
$5,671 Vol.
No
24°C
$5,252 Vol.
No
25°C
$7,724 Vol.
No
26°C
$13,535 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$9,071 Vol.
No
28°C
$7,023 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,676 Vol.
No
30°C
$3,443 Vol.
No
31°C
$127 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$227 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and local IMGW models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will limit Warsaw’s July 18 maximum to the 24–26 °C range, with thundery showers possible during peak heating hours that reduce insolation and cap afternoon temperatures. This follows a late-June heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5 °C but has since yielded to cooler-than-average July conditions across central Europe. Traders have concentrated probability on 25–26 °C outcomes because model runs show modest uncertainty around cloud cover and convective timing, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the post-heatwave pattern and typical July climatology of 24–25 °C. Updated model guidance and IMGW morning observations on July 17 will provide the next key data points before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volume
$57,770End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and local IMGW models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will limit Warsaw’s July 18 maximum to the 24–26 °C range, with thundery showers possible during peak heating hours that reduce insolation and cap afternoon temperatures. This follows a late-June heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5 °C but has since yielded to cooler-than-average July conditions across central Europe. Traders have concentrated probability on 25–26 °C outcomes because model runs show modest uncertainty around cloud cover and convective timing, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the post-heatwave pattern and typical July climatology of 24–25 °C. Updated model guidance and IMGW morning observations on July 17 will provide the next key data points before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$57,770End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and local IMGW models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will limit Warsaw’s July 18 maximum to the 24–26 °C range, with thundery showers possible during peak heating hours that reduce insolation and cap afternoon temperatures. This follows a late-June heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5 °C but has since yielded to cooler-than-average July conditions across central Europe. Traders have concentrated probability on 25–26 °C outcomes because model runs show modest uncertainty around cloud cover and convective timing, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the post-heatwave pattern and typical July climatology of 24–25 °C. Updated model guidance and IMGW morning observations on July 17 will provide the next key data points before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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