Traders have converged on a 22°C high for Warsaw on June 17 because multiple numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, consistently forecast peak surface temperatures near that value under a stable high-pressure ridge with moderate westerly flow, limited cloud cover, and daytime insolation producing a maximum around 21–23°C. Official observations from Polish meteorological stations align with this consensus through the afternoon hours, leaving little room for deviation as the diurnal temperature cycle nears its end. Realistic challenges include unforecasted convective cloud development suppressing the peak by 1–2°C, a late warm-air advection spike, or station-specific microclimate effects that could shift the recorded maximum outside the narrow 22°C bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on June 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 17?
22°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$39,940 Vol.
$39,940 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$39,940 Vol.
$39,940 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
17°C or below
$10 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,189 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,641 Vol.
No
20°C
$6,677 Vol.
No
21°C
$9,450 Vol.
No
22°C
$7,360 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$3,973 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,427 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,710 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,183 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$319 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on a 22°C high for Warsaw on June 17 because multiple numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, consistently forecast peak surface temperatures near that value under a stable high-pressure ridge with moderate westerly flow, limited cloud cover, and daytime insolation producing a maximum around 21–23°C. Official observations from Polish meteorological stations align with this consensus through the afternoon hours, leaving little room for deviation as the diurnal temperature cycle nears its end. Realistic challenges include unforecasted convective cloud development suppressing the peak by 1–2°C, a late warm-air advection spike, or station-specific microclimate effects that could shift the recorded maximum outside the narrow 22°C bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$39,940End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Jun 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on a 22°C high for Warsaw on June 17 because multiple numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, consistently forecast peak surface temperatures near that value under a stable high-pressure ridge with moderate westerly flow, limited cloud cover, and daytime insolation producing a maximum around 21–23°C. Official observations from Polish meteorological stations align with this consensus through the afternoon hours, leaving little room for deviation as the diurnal temperature cycle nears its end. Realistic challenges include unforecasted convective cloud development suppressing the peak by 1–2°C, a late warm-air advection spike, or station-specific microclimate effects that could shift the recorded maximum outside the narrow 22°C bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39,940End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Jun 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have converged on a 22°C high for Warsaw on June 17 because multiple numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, consistently forecast peak surface temperatures near that value under a stable high-pressure ridge with moderate westerly flow, limited cloud cover, and daytime insolation producing a maximum around 21–23°C. Official observations from Polish meteorological stations align with this consensus through the afternoon hours, leaving little room for deviation as the diurnal temperature cycle nears its end. Realistic challenges include unforecasted convective cloud development suppressing the peak by 1–2°C, a late warm-air advection spike, or station-specific microclimate effects that could shift the recorded maximum outside the narrow 22°C bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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