**Recent official forecasts position 14°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on July 18, aligning with the market's leading 50.5% implied probability.** July marks mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when Wellington's temperate maritime climate typically delivers average daily highs of 12–14°C, driven by prevailing westerly winds, frequent cloud cover, and limited solar heating. NIWA's May–July 2026 seasonal outlook indicates temperatures are about equally likely to finish near or below average across the region, with occasional cold snaps possible under high pressure. Current short-range guidance from sources such as the Met Office and local models points to a stable 14°C high on the 18th, with light northerly flow potentially allowing a modest 15°C reading if mixing is stronger than expected. Model consensus shows low variability, supporting the combined 84% probability on 14–15°C outcomes while keeping higher or lower extremes below 10% combined. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic runs and climatological baselines, which favor these narrow thresholds ahead of any final pre-event model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on July 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 18?
15°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$100,831 Vol.
$100,831 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$100,831 Vol.
$100,831 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
8°C or below
$401 Vol.
No
9°C
$401 Vol.
No
10°C
$2,512 Vol.
No
11°C
$366 Vol.
No
12°C
$4,282 Vol.
No
13°C
$15,916 Vol.
No
14°C
$34,036 Vol.
No
15°C
$24,107 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$10,580 Vol.
No
17°C
$6,989 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$1,240 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts position 14°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on July 18, aligning with the market's leading 50.5% implied probability.** July marks mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when Wellington's temperate maritime climate typically delivers average daily highs of 12–14°C, driven by prevailing westerly winds, frequent cloud cover, and limited solar heating. NIWA's May–July 2026 seasonal outlook indicates temperatures are about equally likely to finish near or below average across the region, with occasional cold snaps possible under high pressure. Current short-range guidance from sources such as the Met Office and local models points to a stable 14°C high on the 18th, with light northerly flow potentially allowing a modest 15°C reading if mixing is stronger than expected. Model consensus shows low variability, supporting the combined 84% probability on 14–15°C outcomes while keeping higher or lower extremes below 10% combined. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic runs and climatological baselines, which favor these narrow thresholds ahead of any final pre-event model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$100,831End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts position 14°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on July 18, aligning with the market's leading 50.5% implied probability.** July marks mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when Wellington's temperate maritime climate typically delivers average daily highs of 12–14°C, driven by prevailing westerly winds, frequent cloud cover, and limited solar heating. NIWA's May–July 2026 seasonal outlook indicates temperatures are about equally likely to finish near or below average across the region, with occasional cold snaps possible under high pressure. Current short-range guidance from sources such as the Met Office and local models points to a stable 14°C high on the 18th, with light northerly flow potentially allowing a modest 15°C reading if mixing is stronger than expected. Model consensus shows low variability, supporting the combined 84% probability on 14–15°C outcomes while keeping higher or lower extremes below 10% combined. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic runs and climatological baselines, which favor these narrow thresholds ahead of any final pre-event model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$100,831End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Recent official forecasts position 14°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on July 18, aligning with the market's leading 50.5% implied probability.** July marks mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when Wellington's temperate maritime climate typically delivers average daily highs of 12–14°C, driven by prevailing westerly winds, frequent cloud cover, and limited solar heating. NIWA's May–July 2026 seasonal outlook indicates temperatures are about equally likely to finish near or below average across the region, with occasional cold snaps possible under high pressure. Current short-range guidance from sources such as the Met Office and local models points to a stable 14°C high on the 18th, with light northerly flow potentially allowing a modest 15°C reading if mixing is stronger than expected. Model consensus shows low variability, supporting the combined 84% probability on 14–15°C outcomes while keeping higher or lower extremes below 10% combined. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic runs and climatological baselines, which favor these narrow thresholds ahead of any final pre-event model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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