Recent short-range forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF show variability in overnight radiative cooling for Paris on July 18, with minimum temperatures hinging on cloud cover, Atlantic frontal passages, and boundary-layer wind patterns that could advect cooler maritime air or sustain warmer continental conditions. Following mid-July heat and thundery showers on the 17th, traders see near-even odds between a dip to 12°C or below versus stabilization near 17°C because ensemble spreads remain wide on dew-point depression and subsidence strength. Upcoming model runs and official guidance will clarify whether clearer skies enable stronger nocturnal cooling below seasonal 15–16°C averages or if lingering moisture caps the low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on July 18?
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 18?
17°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$21,841 Vol.
$21,841 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$21,841 Vol.
$21,841 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
12°C or below
$667 Vol.
No
13°C
$466 Vol.
No
14°C
$692 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,033 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,698 Vol.
No
17°C
$3,551 Vol.
Yes
18°C
$7,919 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,809 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,042 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,644 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$317 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF show variability in overnight radiative cooling for Paris on July 18, with minimum temperatures hinging on cloud cover, Atlantic frontal passages, and boundary-layer wind patterns that could advect cooler maritime air or sustain warmer continental conditions. Following mid-July heat and thundery showers on the 17th, traders see near-even odds between a dip to 12°C or below versus stabilization near 17°C because ensemble spreads remain wide on dew-point depression and subsidence strength. Upcoming model runs and official guidance will clarify whether clearer skies enable stronger nocturnal cooling below seasonal 15–16°C averages or if lingering moisture caps the low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$21,841End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF show variability in overnight radiative cooling for Paris on July 18, with minimum temperatures hinging on cloud cover, Atlantic frontal passages, and boundary-layer wind patterns that could advect cooler maritime air or sustain warmer continental conditions. Following mid-July heat and thundery showers on the 17th, traders see near-even odds between a dip to 12°C or below versus stabilization near 17°C because ensemble spreads remain wide on dew-point depression and subsidence strength. Upcoming model runs and official guidance will clarify whether clearer skies enable stronger nocturnal cooling below seasonal 15–16°C averages or if lingering moisture caps the low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,841End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent short-range forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF show variability in overnight radiative cooling for Paris on July 18, with minimum temperatures hinging on cloud cover, Atlantic frontal passages, and boundary-layer wind patterns that could advect cooler maritime air or sustain warmer continental conditions. Following mid-July heat and thundery showers on the 17th, traders see near-even odds between a dip to 12°C or below versus stabilization near 17°C because ensemble spreads remain wide on dew-point depression and subsidence strength. Upcoming model runs and official guidance will clarify whether clearer skies enable stronger nocturnal cooling below seasonal 15–16°C averages or if lingering moisture caps the low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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