Current forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and Météo-France project an overnight low near 16–17°C for Paris on July 3, consistent with early-July climatology after the late-June heatwave. Trader positioning, with the 11°C-or-below outcome leading at 46% amid clustered probabilities around 13–18°C, reflects model spread in 48–72-hour guidance on boundary-layer cooling, nocturnal cloud cover, and weak northerly advection that could enhance radiative losses. Urban heat-island effects and potential for clearer skies under transitional high pressure further differentiate these thresholds, as small shifts in dew-point or wind speed can alter minimums by 2–4°C. Updated ensemble runs from ECMWF and national agencies over the next 24 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on July 3?
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 3?
15°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$32,742 Vol.
$32,742 Vol.
Jul 3, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$32,742 Vol.
$32,742 Vol.
Jul 3, 2026
11°C or below
$1,796 Vol.
No
12°C
$3,222 Vol.
No
13°C
$5,786 Vol.
No
14°C
$6,005 Vol.
No
15°C
$4,069 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$2,691 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,367 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,785 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,226 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,384 Vol.
No
21°C or higher
$2,412 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and Météo-France project an overnight low near 16–17°C for Paris on July 3, consistent with early-July climatology after the late-June heatwave. Trader positioning, with the 11°C-or-below outcome leading at 46% amid clustered probabilities around 13–18°C, reflects model spread in 48–72-hour guidance on boundary-layer cooling, nocturnal cloud cover, and weak northerly advection that could enhance radiative losses. Urban heat-island effects and potential for clearer skies under transitional high pressure further differentiate these thresholds, as small shifts in dew-point or wind speed can alter minimums by 2–4°C. Updated ensemble runs from ECMWF and national agencies over the next 24 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$32,742End Date
Jul 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and Météo-France project an overnight low near 16–17°C for Paris on July 3, consistent with early-July climatology after the late-June heatwave. Trader positioning, with the 11°C-or-below outcome leading at 46% amid clustered probabilities around 13–18°C, reflects model spread in 48–72-hour guidance on boundary-layer cooling, nocturnal cloud cover, and weak northerly advection that could enhance radiative losses. Urban heat-island effects and potential for clearer skies under transitional high pressure further differentiate these thresholds, as small shifts in dew-point or wind speed can alter minimums by 2–4°C. Updated ensemble runs from ECMWF and national agencies over the next 24 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32,742End Date
Jul 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and Météo-France project an overnight low near 16–17°C for Paris on July 3, consistent with early-July climatology after the late-June heatwave. Trader positioning, with the 11°C-or-below outcome leading at 46% amid clustered probabilities around 13–18°C, reflects model spread in 48–72-hour guidance on boundary-layer cooling, nocturnal cloud cover, and weak northerly advection that could enhance radiative losses. Urban heat-island effects and potential for clearer skies under transitional high pressure further differentiate these thresholds, as small shifts in dew-point or wind speed can alter minimums by 2–4°C. Updated ensemble runs from ECMWF and national agencies over the next 24 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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