Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus have converged on a Tokyo overnight minimum of exactly 20 °C for May 26, supporting the market’s near-certain positioning on that outcome. Official guidance highlights stable high pressure, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy conditions that limit radiative cooling below this threshold, consistent with climatological May lows near 19 °C. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s Otemachi station measurement will serve as the resolution source. A modest shift in steering flow or unmodeled cloud cover could still produce a 19 °C or 21 °C reading, though current data indicate such deviations are unlikely before the daily minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$16,298 Vol.
$16,298 Vol.
May 26, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$16,298 Vol.
$16,298 Vol.
May 26, 2026
14°C or below
$923 Vol.
No
15°C
$791 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,533 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,745 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,457 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,202 Vol.
No
20°C
$3,176 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$991 Vol.
No
22°C
$448 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,097 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$1,936 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus have converged on a Tokyo overnight minimum of exactly 20 °C for May 26, supporting the market’s near-certain positioning on that outcome. Official guidance highlights stable high pressure, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy conditions that limit radiative cooling below this threshold, consistent with climatological May lows near 19 °C. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s Otemachi station measurement will serve as the resolution source. A modest shift in steering flow or unmodeled cloud cover could still produce a 19 °C or 21 °C reading, though current data indicate such deviations are unlikely before the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 12:38 AM ET
Volume
$16,298End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:38 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus have converged on a Tokyo overnight minimum of exactly 20 °C for May 26, supporting the market’s near-certain positioning on that outcome. Official guidance highlights stable high pressure, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy conditions that limit radiative cooling below this threshold, consistent with climatological May lows near 19 °C. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s Otemachi station measurement will serve as the resolution source. A modest shift in steering flow or unmodeled cloud cover could still produce a 19 °C or 21 °C reading, though current data indicate such deviations are unlikely before the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$16,298End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:38 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus have converged on a Tokyo overnight minimum of exactly 20 °C for May 26, supporting the market’s near-certain positioning on that outcome. Official guidance highlights stable high pressure, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy conditions that limit radiative cooling below this threshold, consistent with climatological May lows near 19 °C. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s Otemachi station measurement will serve as the resolution source. A modest shift in steering flow or unmodeled cloud cover could still produce a 19 °C or 21 °C reading, though current data indicate such deviations are unlikely before the daily minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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