Marta Kostyuk's straight-sets 6-3, 7-5 victory over Mirra Andreeva in the 2026 Mutua Madrid Open women's singles final on May 2 has solidified trader consensus at 100% implied probability for her as champion, securing her maiden WTA 1000 title on clay at La Caja Magica. Early upsets eliminated top seeds including Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff, and Iga Swiatek, paving the way for the 26th-seeded Kostyuk—who rallied past Anastasia Potapova 6-2, 1-6, 6-1 in the semifinals—and ninth-seeded Andreeva, who advanced after holding off Hailey Baptiste. Kostyuk's superior clay-court form and resilience in the decider drove the market's dominant positioning, with official results leaving scant room for challenges absent disputes or appeals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarta Kostyuk 100.0%
Talia Gibson 1.0%
Oksana Selekhmeteva 1.0%
Ekaterina Alexandrova <1%
$52,388 Vol.
$52,388 Vol.
Ekaterina Alexandrova
No
Mirra Andreeva
No
Hailey Baptiste
No
Belinda Bencic
No
Anna Bondar
No
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
No
Sorana Cîrstea
No
Jaqueline Cristian
No
Leylah Fernandez
No
Coco Gauff
No
Viktorija Golubic
No
Iva Jovic
No
Sofia Kenin
No
Ashlyn Krueger
No
Eva Lys
No
Robin Montgomery
No
Oleksandra Oliynykova
No
Camila Osorio
No
Jasmine Paolini
No
Jessica Pegula
No
Yulia Putintseva
No
Kaitlin Quevedo
No
Emma Raducanu
No
Liudmila Samsonova
No
Solana Sierra
No
Zeynep Sonmez
No
Peyton Stearns
No
Elina Svitolina
No
Moyuka Uchijima
No
Dalma Galfi
No
Tyra Caterina Grant
No
Anhelina Kalinina
No
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
No
Irina-Camelia Begu
No
Kimberly Birrell
No
Katie Boulter
No
Marie Bouzková
No
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
No
Alexandra Eala
No
Magdalena Frech
No
Talia Gibson
No
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva
No
Anna Kalinskaya
No
Daria Kasatkina
No
Madison Keys
No
Ann Li
No
Elise Mertens
No
Linda Noskova
No
Naomi Osaka
No
Jelena Ostapenko
No
Karolina Pliskova
No
Kamilla Rakhimova
No
Elena Rybakina
No
Maria Sakkari
No
Laura Siegemund
No
Katerina Siniaková
No
Sara Sorribes Tormo
No
Iga Swiatek
No
Ajla Tomljanovic
No
Tereza Valentova
No
Xinyu Wang
No
Venus Williams
No
Alina Charaeva
No
Leolia Jeanjean
No
Sinja Kraus
No
Daria Snigur
No
Amanda Anisimova
No
Paula Badosa
No
Julia Grabher
No
Marta Kostyuk
Yes
Petra Marcinko
No
Victoria Mboko
No
Caty McNally
No
Elena-Gabriela Ruse
No
Aryna Sabalenka
No
Diana Shnaider
No
Janice Tjen
No
Shuai Zhang
No
Emiliana Arango
No
Elvina Kalieva
No
Lois Boisson
No
Cristina Bucsa
No
Beatriz Haddad Maia
No
Elsa Jacquemot
No
Magda Linette
No
Tatjana Maria
No
Carlota Martínez Cirez
No
Antonia Ruzic
No
Laura Samson
No
Oksana Selekhmeteva
No
Clara Tauson
No
Taylor Townsend
No
Dayana Yastremska
No
Anastasia Zakharova
No
Qinwen Zheng
No
Alycia Parks
No
Yuliia Starodubtseva
No
Simona Waltert
No
Panna Udvardy
No
Marta Kostyuk 100.0%
Talia Gibson 1.0%
Oksana Selekhmeteva 1.0%
Ekaterina Alexandrova <1%
$52,388 Vol.
$52,388 Vol.
Ekaterina Alexandrova
No
Mirra Andreeva
No
Hailey Baptiste
No
Belinda Bencic
No
Anna Bondar
No
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
No
Sorana Cîrstea
No
Jaqueline Cristian
No
Leylah Fernandez
No
Coco Gauff
No
Viktorija Golubic
No
Iva Jovic
No
Sofia Kenin
No
Ashlyn Krueger
No
Eva Lys
No
Robin Montgomery
No
Oleksandra Oliynykova
No
Camila Osorio
No
Jasmine Paolini
No
Jessica Pegula
No
Yulia Putintseva
No
Kaitlin Quevedo
No
Emma Raducanu
No
Liudmila Samsonova
No
Solana Sierra
No
Zeynep Sonmez
No
Peyton Stearns
No
Elina Svitolina
No
Moyuka Uchijima
No
Dalma Galfi
No
Tyra Caterina Grant
No
Anhelina Kalinina
No
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
No
Irina-Camelia Begu
No
Kimberly Birrell
No
Katie Boulter
No
Marie Bouzková
No
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
No
Alexandra Eala
No
Magdalena Frech
No
Talia Gibson
No
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva
No
Anna Kalinskaya
No
Daria Kasatkina
No
Madison Keys
No
Ann Li
No
Elise Mertens
No
Linda Noskova
No
Naomi Osaka
No
Jelena Ostapenko
No
Karolina Pliskova
No
Kamilla Rakhimova
No
Elena Rybakina
No
Maria Sakkari
No
Laura Siegemund
No
Katerina Siniaková
No
Sara Sorribes Tormo
No
Iga Swiatek
No
Ajla Tomljanovic
No
Tereza Valentova
No
Xinyu Wang
No
Venus Williams
No
Alina Charaeva
No
Leolia Jeanjean
No
Sinja Kraus
No
Daria Snigur
No
Amanda Anisimova
No
Paula Badosa
No
Julia Grabher
No
Marta Kostyuk
Yes
Petra Marcinko
No
Victoria Mboko
No
Caty McNally
No
Elena-Gabriela Ruse
No
Aryna Sabalenka
No
Diana Shnaider
No
Janice Tjen
No
Shuai Zhang
No
Emiliana Arango
No
Elvina Kalieva
No
Lois Boisson
No
Cristina Bucsa
No
Beatriz Haddad Maia
No
Elsa Jacquemot
No
Magda Linette
No
Tatjana Maria
No
Carlota Martínez Cirez
No
Antonia Ruzic
No
Laura Samson
No
Oksana Selekhmeteva
No
Clara Tauson
No
Taylor Townsend
No
Dayana Yastremska
No
Anastasia Zakharova
No
Qinwen Zheng
No
Alycia Parks
No
Yuliia Starodubtseva
No
Simona Waltert
No
Panna Udvardy
No
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Madrid Open Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 Madrid Open Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after May 17, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Madrid Open (https://mutuamadridopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Madrid Open Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 Madrid Open Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after May 17, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Madrid Open (https://mutuamadridopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Marta Kostyuk's straight-sets 6-3, 7-5 victory over Mirra Andreeva in the 2026 Mutua Madrid Open women's singles final on May 2 has solidified trader consensus at 100% implied probability for her as champion, securing her maiden WTA 1000 title on clay at La Caja Magica. Early upsets eliminated top seeds including Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff, and Iga Swiatek, paving the way for the 26th-seeded Kostyuk—who rallied past Anastasia Potapova 6-2, 1-6, 6-1 in the semifinals—and ninth-seeded Andreeva, who advanced after holding off Hailey Baptiste. Kostyuk's superior clay-court form and resilience in the decider drove the market's dominant positioning, with official results leaving scant room for challenges absent disputes or appeals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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