Skip to main content
icon for MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

icon for MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

Kevin McGonigle 75%

Munetaka Murakami 19.4%

Kazuma Okamoto 2.6%

Chase DeLauter 2.6%

Polymarket

$1,612,335 Vol.

Kevin McGonigle 75%

Munetaka Murakami 19.4%

Kazuma Okamoto 2.6%

Chase DeLauter 2.6%

Polymarket

$1,612,335 Vol.

Kevin McGonigle

$41,218 Vol.

75%

Munetaka Murakami

$57,990 Vol.

19%

Kazuma Okamoto

$229,117 Vol.

3%

Chase DeLauter

$4,301 Vol.

3%

Samuel Basallo

$1,948 Vol.

2%

Travis Bazzana

$4,518 Vol.

2%

Payton Tolle

$194,441 Vol.

1%

Trey Yesavage

$2,722 Vol.

1%

Spencer Jones

$37,533 Vol.

1%

Carlos Lagrange

$65,031 Vol.

1%

Max Clark

$62,191 Vol.

1%

Dylan Beavers

$1,325 Vol.

1%

Carson Williams

$429,496 Vol.

1%

Carter Jensen

$93,760 Vol.

<1%

Connelly Early

$70,472 Vol.

<1%

Tatsuya Imai

$833 Vol.

<1%

Colt Emerson

$2,002 Vol.

<1%

Walker Jenkins

$62,515 Vol.

<1%

Brice Matthews

$140,003 Vol.

<1%

Leo De Vries

$110,921 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kevin McGonigle's elite all-around production for the Tigers, including a .287/.399/.422 slash line, 3.8 fWAR, and second-youngest All-Star nod in franchise history, has solidified trader consensus around his 74.5% implied probability for AL Rookie of the Year. His plate discipline, power profile, and defensive work at shortstop have outpaced the field through late July. Munetaka Murakami's prolonged injury absence with the White Sox has limited his momentum despite strong underlying tools, leaving him at 19.6%. Lower-priced names such as Kazuma Okamoto and Samuel Basallo remain long shots pending sustained playing time and production spikes in the final months.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,612,335
End Date
Dec 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kevin McGonigle's elite all-around production for the Tigers, including a .287/.399/.422 slash line, 3.8 fWAR, and second-youngest All-Star nod in franchise history, has solidified trader consensus around his 74.5% implied probability for AL Rookie of the Year. His plate discipline, power profile, and defensive work at shortstop have outpaced the field through late July. Munetaka Murakami's prolonged injury absence with the White Sox has limited his momentum despite strong underlying tools, leaving him at 19.6%. Lower-priced names such as Kazuma Okamoto and Samuel Basallo remain long shots pending sustained playing time and production spikes in the final months.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,612,335
End Date
Dec 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin McGonigle" at 75%, followed by "Munetaka Murakami" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" is "Kevin McGonigle" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Munetaka Murakami" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.