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Sports·Rookie

MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

icon for MLB: AL Rookie of the Year
Sports·Rookie

MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

Kevin McGonigle 75%

Munetaka Murakami 16.6%

Kazuma Okamoto 1.9%

Samuel Basallo 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,616,414 Vol.

Kevin McGonigle 75%

Munetaka Murakami 16.6%

Kazuma Okamoto 1.9%

Samuel Basallo 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,616,414 Vol.

Kevin McGonigle

$42,190 Vol.

75%

Munetaka Murakami

$58,390 Vol.

17%

Kazuma Okamoto

$229,385 Vol.

2%

Samuel Basallo

$2,134 Vol.

2%

Chase DeLauter

$4,440 Vol.

2%

Travis Bazzana

$4,657 Vol.

1%

Payton Tolle

$194,580 Vol.

1%

Trey Yesavage

$2,908 Vol.

1%

Spencer Jones

$37,722 Vol.

1%

Carlos Lagrange

$65,240 Vol.

1%

Max Clark

$62,330 Vol.

1%

Dylan Beavers

$1,464 Vol.

1%

Carter Jensen

$93,899 Vol.

<1%

Connelly Early

$70,611 Vol.

<1%

Tatsuya Imai

$833 Vol.

<1%

Colt Emerson

$2,141 Vol.

<1%

Walker Jenkins

$62,654 Vol.

<1%

Brice Matthews

$140,142 Vol.

<1%

Leo De Vries

$111,060 Vol.

<1%

Carson Williams

$429,635 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kevin McGonigle's standout rookie campaign with the Detroit Tigers has solidified his position as the heavy favorite in AL Rookie of the Year markets, driven by elite plate discipline, minimal strikeouts, and offensive production well above league average through the first half. The 21-year-old shortstop earned All-Star honors and set rookie benchmarks for reaching base multiple times, outpacing the field in advanced metrics like fWAR. Munetaka Murakami, the primary challenger with the Chicago White Sox, maintains a distant second-place share thanks to his power output and All-Star selection, though a prolonged injured list stint limited his overall impact. Lower-probability candidates such as Kazuma Okamoto, Samuel Basallo, and Chase DeLauter trail significantly amid stronger established production from the top duo.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,616,414
End Date
Dec 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kevin McGonigle's standout rookie campaign with the Detroit Tigers has solidified his position as the heavy favorite in AL Rookie of the Year markets, driven by elite plate discipline, minimal strikeouts, and offensive production well above league average through the first half. The 21-year-old shortstop earned All-Star honors and set rookie benchmarks for reaching base multiple times, outpacing the field in advanced metrics like fWAR. Munetaka Murakami, the primary challenger with the Chicago White Sox, maintains a distant second-place share thanks to his power output and All-Star selection, though a prolonged injured list stint limited his overall impact. Lower-probability candidates such as Kazuma Okamoto, Samuel Basallo, and Chase DeLauter trail significantly amid stronger established production from the top duo.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,616,414
End Date
Dec 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin McGonigle" at 75%, followed by "Munetaka Murakami" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" is "Kevin McGonigle" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Munetaka Murakami" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.