DeepSeek's preview release of the V4 model family on April 24, 2026—including the 1.6T-parameter V4-Pro (49B active) and lighter V4-Flash (284B, 13B active)—marks a significant escalation in open-source AI competition, with both supporting 1M-token context and agentic optimizations via novel hybrid attention and domestic chip support like Huawei Ascend. The models debuted swiftly on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard, where V4-Pro (thinking mode) holds #20 overall (Elo 1463, preliminary) and #2 among open models, matching Kimi-K2.6 while leading in medical/healthcare; V4-Flash ranks #47-#55. This reflects trader consensus on DeepSeek's benchmark dominance in math, coding, and STEM, challenging U.S. frontier models like GPT-5.4, though sustained Elo gains depend on accumulating user votes amid intensifying Chinese lab rivalries from GLM and Moonshot. Full V4 rollout and Arena maturation remain key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$66,674 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
1460+
No
1480+
No
1500+
No
$66,674 Vol.
1460+
$53,250 Vol.
No
1480+
$11,584 Vol.
No
1500+
$1,839 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by DeepSeek has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".DeepSeek's preview release of the V4 model family on April 24, 2026—including the 1.6T-parameter V4-Pro (49B active) and lighter V4-Flash (284B, 13B active)—marks a significant escalation in open-source AI competition, with both supporting 1M-token context and agentic optimizations via novel hybrid attention and domestic chip support like Huawei Ascend. The models debuted swiftly on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard, where V4-Pro (thinking mode) holds #20 overall (Elo 1463, preliminary) and #2 among open models, matching Kimi-K2.6 while leading in medical/healthcare; V4-Flash ranks #47-#55. This reflects trader consensus on DeepSeek's benchmark dominance in math, coding, and STEM, challenging U.S. frontier models like GPT-5.4, though sustained Elo gains depend on accumulating user votes amid intensifying Chinese lab rivalries from GLM and Moonshot. Full V4 rollout and Arena maturation remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by DeepSeek has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Apr 23, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$66,674End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by DeepSeek has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".DeepSeek's preview release of the V4 model family on April 24, 2026—including the 1.6T-parameter V4-Pro (49B active) and lighter V4-Flash (284B, 13B active)—marks a significant escalation in open-source AI competition, with both supporting 1M-token context and agentic optimizations via novel hybrid attention and domestic chip support like Huawei Ascend. The models debuted swiftly on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard, where V4-Pro (thinking mode) holds #20 overall (Elo 1463, preliminary) and #2 among open models, matching Kimi-K2.6 while leading in medical/healthcare; V4-Flash ranks #47-#55. This reflects trader consensus on DeepSeek's benchmark dominance in math, coding, and STEM, challenging U.S. frontier models like GPT-5.4, though sustained Elo gains depend on accumulating user votes amid intensifying Chinese lab rivalries from GLM and Moonshot. Full V4 rollout and Arena maturation remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by DeepSeek has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Volume
$66,674End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
DeepSeek's preview release of the V4 model family on April 24, 2026—including the 1.6T-parameter V4-Pro (49B active) and lighter V4-Flash (284B, 13B active)—marks a significant escalation in open-source AI competition, with both supporting 1M-token context and agentic optimizations via novel hybrid attention and domestic chip support like Huawei Ascend. The models debuted swiftly on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard, where V4-Pro (thinking mode) holds #20 overall (Elo 1463, preliminary) and #2 among open models, matching Kimi-K2.6 while leading in medical/healthcare; V4-Flash ranks #47-#55. This reflects trader consensus on DeepSeek's benchmark dominance in math, coding, and STEM, challenging U.S. frontier models like GPT-5.4, though sustained Elo gains depend on accumulating user votes amid intensifying Chinese lab rivalries from GLM and Moonshot. Full V4 rollout and Arena maturation remain key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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