Wesley So holds a commanding 2.5-point lead after seven rounds of Norway Chess 2026, driving trader consensus toward his 56.8% implied probability as the consistent American grandmaster has converted strong classical results and armageddon play into an extended advantage. Alireza Firouzja sits second at 32.8% probability after recent classical losses narrowed his gap despite earlier momentum. Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu trails further at 7.8%, while world number one Magnus Carlsen’s multiple defeats and subpar scoring have compressed his chances to 1.6%. Vincent Keymer and world champion Gukesh Dommaraju register minimal market pricing given their mid-pack or lower positions with only three rounds remaining. The tight remaining schedule and format incentives continue to shape these probabilities around current form and standings momentum.