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icon for Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?

Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?

icon for Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?

Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$120,870 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$120,870 Vol.

The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled for May 4, 2026. This year's theme is "Costume Art". This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lady Gaga attends the 2026 Met Gala. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% "No" for Lady Gaga attending the 2026 Met Gala, driven by her confirmed absence from yesterday's red carpet at the Metropolitan Museum of Art and subsequent afterparty coverage. Despite pre-event buzz positioning her as a likely frontrunner—fueled by rumors of promotion for her "The Devil Wears Prada 2" role and the "Costume Art" theme suiting her campy, transformative style—live streams from Vogue and major outlets like People and Hollywood Reporter listed no arrivals or photos, echoing her skips since the iconic 2019 four-look entrance. This marks seven straight years away, with traders citing her focus on the Mayhem Ball Tour prep and selective red carpet strategy amid a packed 2026 film slate. Realistic upsets are negligible post-event, though unconfirmed inside attendance (rare for A-listers) could theoretically surface, but skin-in-the-game bets reflect ironclad certainty.

The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled for May 4, 2026. This year's theme is "Costume Art".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lady Gaga attends the 2026 Met Gala. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the event is canceled or postponed beyond May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$120,870
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 5:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled for May 4, 2026. This year's theme is "Costume Art". This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lady Gaga attends the 2026 Met Gala. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled for May 4, 2026. This year's theme is "Costume Art". This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lady Gaga attends the 2026 Met Gala. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% "No" for Lady Gaga attending the 2026 Met Gala, driven by her confirmed absence from yesterday's red carpet at the Metropolitan Museum of Art and subsequent afterparty coverage. Despite pre-event buzz positioning her as a likely frontrunner—fueled by rumors of promotion for her "The Devil Wears Prada 2" role and the "Costume Art" theme suiting her campy, transformative style—live streams from Vogue and major outlets like People and Hollywood Reporter listed no arrivals or photos, echoing her skips since the iconic 2019 four-look entrance. This marks seven straight years away, with traders citing her focus on the Mayhem Ball Tour prep and selective red carpet strategy amid a packed 2026 film slate. Realistic upsets are negligible post-event, though unconfirmed inside attendance (rare for A-listers) could theoretically surface, but skin-in-the-game bets reflect ironclad certainty.

The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled for May 4, 2026. This year's theme is "Costume Art".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lady Gaga attends the 2026 Met Gala. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the event is canceled or postponed beyond May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$120,870
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 5:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled for May 4, 2026. This year's theme is "Costume Art". This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lady Gaga attends the 2026 Met Gala. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?" has generated $120.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.