Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. Redistricting shifted the coastal Orange County seat—including Irvine and surrounding suburbs—toward a clearer Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris carrying the area by double digits in 2024. Min's primary performance and the district's voter registration and demographic profile, featuring large numbers of college-educated professionals and Asian-American voters, reinforce this edge. Independent forecasts rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A major national Republican surge, unforeseen scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though current evidence shows limited pathways for a Republican upset.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-47 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-47 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$14,137 Vol.
$14,137 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
6%
$14,137 Vol.
$14,137 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$3,261 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$10,876 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. Redistricting shifted the coastal Orange County seat—including Irvine and surrounding suburbs—toward a clearer Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris carrying the area by double digits in 2024. Min's primary performance and the district's voter registration and demographic profile, featuring large numbers of college-educated professionals and Asian-American voters, reinforce this edge. Independent forecasts rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A major national Republican surge, unforeseen scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though current evidence shows limited pathways for a Republican upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$14,137Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. Redistricting shifted the coastal Orange County seat—including Irvine and surrounding suburbs—toward a clearer Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris carrying the area by double digits in 2024. Min's primary performance and the district's voter registration and demographic profile, featuring large numbers of college-educated professionals and Asian-American voters, reinforce this edge. Independent forecasts rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A major national Republican surge, unforeseen scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though current evidence shows limited pathways for a Republican upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,137Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. Redistricting shifted the coastal Orange County seat—including Irvine and surrounding suburbs—toward a clearer Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris carrying the area by double digits in 2024. Min's primary performance and the district's voter registration and demographic profile, featuring large numbers of college-educated professionals and Asian-American voters, reinforce this edge. Independent forecasts rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A major national Republican surge, unforeseen scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though current evidence shows limited pathways for a Republican upset.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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