Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured over 51 percent of the vote against a fragmented field, has reinforced trader expectations for a Democratic hold in California’s 46th congressional district. The district’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index, combined with Correa’s established fundraising lead and consistent reelection margins in prior cycles, underpins the 95 percent implied probability for the Democratic Party. All major forecasters rate the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican David Pan. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal, or dramatic national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap, though structural factors continue to favor the incumbent’s party.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-46 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-46 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$24,224 Vol.
$24,224 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
6%
$24,224 Vol.
$24,224 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$4,687 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$19,536 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured over 51 percent of the vote against a fragmented field, has reinforced trader expectations for a Democratic hold in California’s 46th congressional district. The district’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index, combined with Correa’s established fundraising lead and consistent reelection margins in prior cycles, underpins the 95 percent implied probability for the Democratic Party. All major forecasters rate the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican David Pan. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal, or dramatic national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap, though structural factors continue to favor the incumbent’s party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$24,224Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured over 51 percent of the vote against a fragmented field, has reinforced trader expectations for a Democratic hold in California’s 46th congressional district. The district’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index, combined with Correa’s established fundraising lead and consistent reelection margins in prior cycles, underpins the 95 percent implied probability for the Democratic Party. All major forecasters rate the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican David Pan. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal, or dramatic national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap, though structural factors continue to favor the incumbent’s party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,224Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured over 51 percent of the vote against a fragmented field, has reinforced trader expectations for a Democratic hold in California’s 46th congressional district. The district’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index, combined with Correa’s established fundraising lead and consistent reelection margins in prior cycles, underpins the 95 percent implied probability for the Democratic Party. All major forecasters rate the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican David Pan. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal, or dramatic national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap, though structural factors continue to favor the incumbent’s party.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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